The Trump administration's movement to impose tariffs on Mexico has shocked 130 million people nationwide on Sunday.
So far, Mexico has not yet provided more about how it fights. However, President Claudia Sheinbaum must choose from areas where the country has a leverage, such as agriculture, which has a leverage to react to a small or completely economic economy, such as agriculture.
“Mexico must retaliate as a starting point,” said Kenneth Smith Ramos, a former Mexican negotiator who summarized retaliation lists in 2018.
“But you need to do it in a way that causes economic harm in the United States, and accurate shots of specific products can cause political turbulence,” said Smith Ramos.
It can be a new tariff on Kentucky Bourbon, high -fructcon syrup, pork, or other products, mainly from the state that supported President Trump in the November election.
The situation has changed since Mexico and the United States were in a trade crisis during Trump's first term. Since then, Mexico has overturned China as the largest trade partner for products with the United States. According to the US Ministry of Agriculture, Mexico has appeared worldwide as a global market for US foods and agricultural exports, increasing by 7 % since the previous year to more than $ 29 billion.
However, if agriculture is one area where Mexico can find many ways to retaliate, other economies such as car production and energy are deep in the country in Trump's aggressive tactics. Exposes sex.
With these sectors, Mexico's dependence on the United States has recently increased, and the number of negotiators has decreased. However, Trump's tariffs may resonate in the United States as the price of sophisticated fuel, such as cars and diesel, increases.
Mexico can use some other tools freely.
Authorities can allow the national currency, Pesos, to weaken the dollar, and, despite Trump's tariffs, can effectively increase exports. Pesos decreased by 2.5 % on Sunday transactions to $ 21.21. This was the lowest level since Russia's invasion of Ukraine rattled in 2022.
Combined with Canada and the tariffs imposed on China, it is Mexico's tariff that the value of pesos is 17 % in combined with Canada and China's major competitors in the US market. Alberto Ramos said it would alleviate the blow. Goldman Sachs Latin American research team.
But the real risk of Mexico's economy is whether the trade war will be quickly resolved or extended over a long period of time. Economist warns that if the tension is not resolved, it may lead to a factory closure, unemployment, and recession.
Raine Mahdi, the highest executive officer of ZIPFOX, which is based in San Diego, which connects American companies and Asian alternatives in Mexico's factory, is a concession from Mexico in regions such as immigrants and drug transactions. He said that he regarded a negotiating tactic aimed at winning. 。
“Every Mexico really needs to do it, and they show their true honest efforts in those areas,” said Mahdi. “That's it.”
Still, politics may be in the way that hinders transactions. The Trump administration's claim that the Mexico government has a drug cartel and an “unbearable alliance” has already attacked the nervousness of Mexico's political stereotypes, creating a strict RE responsibility from Symbaum.
In a video of US tariffs, Mexico on Sunday called for Trump's claim that the Mexican government had a crime group and an alliance with a “irresponsible irresponsibility.” She said she was preparing to announce retaliation on Monday morning.
“If they want to act, they should not aim at Mexico, they should not aim at their own country, they did nothing to stop the illegal sales of these drugs and other drugs.” He mentioned Fentanyl.
When the tension is boiled, they are in the Mexican economy area and form a national response to Trump's tariffs.
Mexico farmers, which supplies 63 % of US vegetables imports and 47 % of fruits and nut imports, may be exposed to intense pressure when tariff disputes intensify. Avocado -like products that have experienced the rapid rise of demand from American consumers will probably be more expensive.
However, as Mexico has increased agricultural exports to the United States, it has grown into the most important market for US food and agricultural exports prior to both Canada and China.
This allows Mexico to target specific products from the United States with tariffs. In 2018, Mexican negotiations have strategically assigned duties in states and regions that have strong connections to the first Trump administration, such as apples, bourbon, cheese, cranberry, pork, and potatoes.
Mr. Trump, who was hit by 25 % tariffs, has already announced retaliation of the selected US product. The response of this country focuses on maximizing the state's effects managed by the Republican Party, and asking those state representatives to refuse US tariffs and break away. I am focusing.
The tactics seemed to work when Mexico, Canada, and US officials returned to the negotiated table, along with similar tariffs on US products from Canada. Discard the customs duties at that time, they re -negotiated the trade treaty in entanglement between three countries, and hindered the US Mexico Canada agreement signed by Trump in 2020.
The fate of the treaty, known as a USMCA, claims that Mr. Trump and his advisor are not limited enough to prevent American manufacturers from moving outside the United States. there is.
In terms of agriculture, experts say that Mexico can pivot slowly in other markets. Despite Mexico relying on the United States, Mexico is increasingly calling for expanding trade between Asia and Latin America.
Mexico has also strengthened its relationship with the European Union, the second largest market for exports in the United States, and imports products such as tequila, beer, coffee, fruit juice, avocado, and berry.
In addition to tariffs, Mexico can eliminate the preferences of cereals and vegetable oils imported from the United States, and may choose to import such products from Latin American agricultural powers such as Brazil and Argentina. 。 However, it may require significant changes to infrastructure such as ports and railways.
car
New tariffs can cause confusion in the Mexican automotive industry. This is the economic point of the country that hires more than 1 million people and accounts for about 5 % of the gross domestic product.
Vehicles and automotive parts are the largest exports to Mexico, $ 157 billion in 2023. In Canada, the production of vehicles has declined for many years, and Mexico has exposed thousands of Mexicans from all over the world. Employees, confusion.
According to a report of S & P Global, a provider of financial information and credit ratings, about 27 % of Nissan's sales in the United States were procured from Mexico in 2024, Stellantis raised 23 % and General Motors 22 %. I got it.
Since the supply chain is becoming more and more complicated and intertwined, Mexico is already operating in Mexico and is working on reaction methods, so it seems relatively small in response to US car manufacturers.
However, Mexico can provide concessions by doing more things to suppress the import of Chinese vehicles.
The uncertainty about one major engine in Mexico's economy can create factories and unemployment at home. And in the United States, if the price of the car is approaching a historic high price, the tariffs of the vehicle may put a heavy burden on the affordable price of the vehicle.
S & P estimates that 25 % of import taxes will add $ 6,250 to 25 % of import taxes from Mexico's average $ 25,000 land costs (including vehicle prices, transportation, and duties). 。
Energy
Another weakness of Mexico is energy. After fossil fuels and itself, it is expensive to invest for many years in energy production, Mexico faces a decrease in oil production and a shortage of renewable energy resources, strengthening its grid.
Mexico, which grows this dilemma, is relied on the import of natural gas in the United States to make 70 % of its domestic natural gas consumption.
The rapidly growing low -cost industrial basis depends on these energy imports to power factories, warehouses, and data centers. The trust may prevent Mexico from putting its own tariffs on the imported US energy.
Mexico also exports about 700,000 barrel crude oil per day to the United States and is currently exporting a 25 % import tax. (In contrast, only 10 % of tariffs will be placed in Canada's energy exports to the United States.)
Next, Mexico imports a large number of sophisticated fuel from the United States, such as gasoline and diesel. Symbaum's predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Oblador, was trying to suppress this dependence by building a huge new refinery in Mexico.
However, Pemex, a national oil company with Mexico's debt, has no longer reduced its dependence on fuel imports from the United States. Mexico is preparing to respond to the Trump administration's measures, and has less leverage.
Annie Coril contributed to the report from Mexico City.
