4 ways Trump could increase his chances of winning to 96%

The 2016 election was decided by 40,000 votes in key Midwestern states. This time, the margin of victory could be even more dramatic: 10,000 to 20,000 Pennsylvanians or student seats at a Penn State football game.

According to election expert Nate Silver, former President Donald Trump has a 96% chance of winning the White House if he wins the Keystone State. Trump's strengths with men and weaknesses with women are well known, so the entire race may depend on whether he can convince thousands of Pennsylvania women to join his side.

That's easier said than done. This election presents a new challenge. For the first time, abortion has surpassed the economy as the No. 1 issue for women voters under 45. For women overall, abortion now ranks alongside the economy as the most important issue.

Harris, Trump hold intense rallies in key battleground states as post-debate “final stages” begin

Against this background, some perspective and caution is required.

First, the right should give Trump the freedom to choose his approach to abortion. For the past 50 years, Republicans have benefited from a unifying message: overturning Roe v. Wade.

Now the debate is shifting, with state policies varying across even the most pro-life states and governors, and the political reality is that most Americans take a middle ground on this difficult issue. In Pennsylvania, for example, abortion is legal up to 24 weeks.

Trump has made good on his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe and send the issue back to the states. It's not a perfect solution, but it's a solution to one of the most difficult problems in American political life. The right should give Trump free rein to explain these positions and reassure Pennsylvanians that the issue is now in their hands.

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Second, remind parents what's at stake. Suburban moms may not care much for Trump's style, personality, or his rough-and-tumble approach to policies and Americans, but throughout his presidency, Trump fought to keep kids in the classroom and out of the crap during the COVID-19 pandemic. Democrats and their teachers union allies have done the opposite.

Despite what many see as his character flaws, Trump ran a good country and was a friend to parents and students. The question is not whether we would rather have Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris as our teacher, but who is more likely to use the government to interfere with our children and shape their thinking around things we don't believe in and that don't concern them. The answer seems obvious to us.

Third, to expose Harris' hypocrisy on fracking, an industry that matters to Pennsylvanians. Admittedly, it's hard to know what Harris is running for, but it's clear what she's running from: her record.

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She has previously said she would ban fracking. She also said she would abolish the filibuster to pass the Green New Deal. She was the deciding vote on the Stop Inflation Act, perhaps the largest “green” benefit-driven bill ever passed. On her first day in office, the Biden-Harris Administration halted the Keystone XL Pipeline and blocked oil and gas leasing on vast swaths of federal lands.

Trump has made good on his promise to appoint judges who would overturn Roe and send the issue back to the states. It's not a perfect solution, but it's a solution to one of the most difficult problems in American political life. The right should give Trump free rein to explain these positions and reassure Pennsylvanians that the issue is now in their hands.

This administration has leaned on a radical environmentalist who pays lip service to fracking because she knows the political stakes are there, or as Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders recently put it, she is “doing what she thinks is right to win the election.”

Finally, let's not forget Butler, Pennsylvania. This district north of Pittsburgh is where Trump made his strongest case yet. By rising bravely in the face of death, Trump proved he displays his best qualities: a warrior for his country. Whether it's the Russia collusion hoax, a fake legal war or a near-assassination, Trump never backs down. This is a quality Pennsylvanians respect, and it could make a difference.

Chris Beach is a speechwriter for the former U.S. Secretary of Defense.

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