Astronomers were carefully looking at the 2024 YR4, a space rock that was more likely to hit Earth in 2032. However, NASA announced on Monday it will no longer pose a threat. Almost zero.
“We're excited to introduce a wide range of services,” said Davide Farnocchia, navigation engineer at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in California. “I slept pretty well.”
A few days after Skywatchers reported an observation of the 2024 YR4 on December 27, 2024, scientists calculated that there was more than a 1% chance of hitting the Earth.
As scientists studied more data on objects, the probability of shock continued to rise through January and February, up from 1.2% on last Tuesday to a peak of 3.1%.
It may sound small, but the probability was higher than NASA ever recorded for this size or larger object.
Somewhere 130-300 feet wide, the 2024 YR4 is big enough to wipe out the city. Early estimates of asteroid trajectories showed that they could collide and explode in metropolitan areas, including Mumbai in Mumbai and Lagos in Nigeria.
However, the day after the 3.1% forecast, the chance that the 2024 YR4 began to hit the Earth fell to 1.5% on February 19th, then to 0.3% the following day. On Monday afternoon, NASA shared “All Clear” in an X post, noting that the probability has been reduced to 0.004%, a lower chance of 25,000 people.
According to Dr. Farnockia, its value is already outdated. The latest estimate is even smaller, one in 59,000 chances.
The probability of impact has changed over the past two months as astronomers have gathered more information about asteroids from ground telescopes. Additional data has begun to reduce uncertainty in routes through the solar system.
“This is normal behavior and what you'd expect when you discover an asteroid,” Dr. Farnockia said. It's “only a scientific process in the workplace,” he added.
Earth may have avoided destruction by asteroids, but NASA said there is about 1.7% chance that the 2024 YR4 would hit our moon and create yet another crater on the spotted surface. I said that.
The agency continues to monitor asteroids from observatory around the world, including the Lowell Discovery Telescope in Arizona and the Nordic Optical Telescope in the Canary Islands. By the end of April 2024, YR4 will be hidden from our views until 2028.
“The asteroids are trying to do what it is trying to do,” Dr. Farnockia said. Astronomers have found it and measured the likelihood of a collision so far, “in fact, a good indication that we are doing what we need to do to address the risk of impact on asteroids. That's it,” he added.
