After the tariff war between Canada and Mexico, the next goal of Trump is Europe

Europe, you are next.

It is the latest message from President Trump, who recently repeatedly said that he would have poned up to 27 members of the European Union.

Mr. Trump talked to the BBC on Sunday evening, saying, “It will definitely happen in the European Union.” He doubled the threat on Monday and complained about the deficit between cars and agricultural products, but imports from Canada and China came into effect a few hours before new tariffs, and Mexico was one month late. I got it.

“The European Union has been abused the United States for years, but they can't do it,” said Trump on Monday.

In the past two weeks, there has been a reversal of a blitz warfare and a policy that drives the head of the presidential orders and policy reversal related to international trade, assistance, and agreements. However, one general thread is that Mr. Trump has led the most strict penalties of the closest economic and military alliance in the United States.

One of the reasons is that the United States has a large trade deficit with Mexico, Canada, and European Union, in addition to China, said Agate Dermalis, a senior fellow of the European Diplomacy Council. 。

“Trump is hooked on the trade deficit,” she said. And he may be “starting from a place where he feels a quick victory.”

Of course, the surplus of trade is not always a sign of national economic health. The United States last spent a trade surplus in 1975, but the US economy was still in a severe recession.

According to the US Economic Analysis Bureau, the United States had a trade surplus with Britain in 2023. And that may help the UK to avoid tariffs. “I think I can solve it,” said Trump. In contrast to the UK and Europe.

Regarding the European Union, Trump characterizes block trade practices as a “atrocities”. However, the tariffs imposed by the United States and the European Union are quite similar.

“The protection of protection between the United States and Europe is very uniform, and there is no evidence that the United States was used,” said Kimberly Cloud, the Economist of Peterson International Institute in Washington. 。 “This claim is dishonest.”

According to a Global Markets survey, products exported from the United States to the European Union are 3.95 % tariffs on average. An average of 3.5 % of tariffs will be added to the European Union products west of the Atlantic Ocean.

However, the gap is large for some items like a car. The European Union's tariffs are 10 %, compared to 2.5 % from the United States. The average EU tariff for food and drinks is 3.5 % higher than the US set. Trump has long been complaining about both sector.

According to EUROSTAT, the United States is the first buyer of the EU export, accounting for almost 20 % in 2023. The surplus of block products was about $ 160 billion. The service had a deficit of $ 107 billion.

“We do not support the battle with allies,” said Mette Frederiksen, Prime Minister of Denmark, but said, “If the United States is strictly duties to Europe, we need a collective and robust response.”

“We have to do everything to avoid it -unnecessary and stupid tariff wars or trade wars,” said Poland's Prime Minister Donald Task.

For a month, European leaders have gently prepared how to respond. Business leaders and industry groups have warned that the investment may be slow in the brewing trade war and the unfolding unpredictable way. American tariffs on European products will damage companies when they are weakened by flagging in demand in their homes and China.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has issued a statement criticizing potential tariffs on Monday, arguing in retaliation and suffering from companies in the Atlantic Ocean.

German business leaders hated commenting on the possibility of tariffs in Europe on Monday, but they responded with concerns and resignation of people targeting Mexico and Canada.

Wolfgang niedermark, a member of the BDI board of the German industrial lobby group, states: “In the automotive industry, including the chemical industry, and its suppliers, suppliers as a supplier of chemical substances will be hit much more violently than other sector.”

Many 2,100 German companies, which are developing businesses in Mexico, including BMW, Volkswagen, and Audi, have signed a trade agreement with Mexico and Canada during the first term when the threat of tariffs on Germany was imminent. , I chose to build there.

Last year, about a quarter of 1.3 million vehicles sold by German automakers in the United States was produced in Mexico. In addition to automobile companies, there are research and production factories on the web of automotive parts such as Bosch and ZF.

Asian and European stock markets decreased on Monday, and the number of stock prices has declined among automakers.

The Economist of Switzerland Prognos Institute is calculated that 1.2 million employments in Germany depend on exports to the United States, and that up to 300,000 people may be dangerous if tariffs on Europe are enforced. did.

European luxury industries are also looking for hits. In 2019, the United States temporarily imposed 25 % tariffs on French wine and Italian cheese, temporarily imposed luxurious leather handbags and luggage from brands such as Louis Vuitton and Gucci.

Bernard Arnault, the head of LvMhmoëtennesylouis Vuitton Empire, has tried to build a direct relationship with Mr. Trump, who personally invited him last month in Washington. Last week's revenue presentation stated that Arno reduced corporate tax to 15 % and “welcomed you with weapons,” Trump has made the United States more attractive to companies.

There may be a reason that the country may be worried that the trade deficit is too large, said Cloudy's Economist, the Economist of the Peterson Research Institute. But the United States has not faced these issues at this time.

The trade deficit indicates that American consumers have obtained many things from other regions in the world. If customs duties increase prices and Americans have to pay more, their standards will decrease, as most economists expect.

Liz Aladman has contributed to Paris reports to Berlin's Melissa Eddie and Brussels Jeanna Smearlek.