An American University historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections told Fox News Digital that Democrats have “finally gotten smart” by rallying around Kamala Harris as their candidate, which is one of the reasons he thinks she will win the election in November.
The formula that Alan Lichtman has used to accurately predict almost every presidential election since 1984, “The Key to the White House,” was developed in 1981 in collaboration with mathematician Vladimir Kaylis-Vorok and is based on an analysis of presidential elections going back to 1860. The “Key” consists of 13 true-false questions, parameters that, if true, favor stability.
“It works really simply: If there are six or more keys — any six keys — that are against the party in the White House, then they're predicted to lose. If not, then they're predicted to win,” Lichtman told Fox News Digital this week. “And, incidentally, this prediction also led to my prediction of Donald Trump's victory, making me virtually the only person to make this prediction in 2016.”
Lichtman predicts that the Democratic Party, led by Harris, could lose “at most” five seats, which is why “this will be a groundbreaking election in which Kamala Harris will become the first woman president of the United States.”
Who has the keys to the White House? Historian with ace record of election predictions discusses Trump's ruling
Alan Lichtman predicts that Vice President Kamala Harris (left) will defeat former President Trump in November. (AP/Jacqueline Martin/Nell Redmond)
“The unprecedented event of a sitting president withdrawing on the eve of the convention has affected my keys,” Lichtman continued. “With Biden withdrawing, the Democrats lost one of their incumbent keys. Given the circumstances, I thought that if Biden withdrew, there would be a big fight within the party, they would lose their second key, and they might lose the election. But the Democrats ultimately wised up and came together behind Harris, and the keys to the election were kept. So, this transition only lost one key.”
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Alan Lichtman told Fox News Digital that he believes Harris will win the presidential election in November. (Fox News Digital)
Lichtman states that the key to the election is “the absence of a serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.” Other keys are party credibility, incumbency, third party, short-term economics, long-term economics, policy change, social unrest, scandal, diplomatic/military failure, diplomatic/military success, incumbent charisma, and challenger charisma.
Democratic presidential candidates Vice President Kamala Harris and President Joe Biden arrive at a campaign event at the IBEW Local 5 union hall in Pittsburgh on Labor Day. (AP Photo/Jacqueline Martin)
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“I think having Harris at the forefront, rather than Joe Biden as a policy maker, has helped to dampen the enthusiasm for the protests and saved the second key, which is social unrest,” Lichtman said. “The key shows that Kamala Harris is the predicted winner.”
Fox News' Chris Pandolfo contributed to this report.
