Despite the one-night threat from Hamas and President Trump, regional officials and analysts will survive beyond the weekend Tuesday morning, despite competing to derail the ceasefire in Gaza I was hoping for it, but it wasn't that long.
The deal appeared near the collapse when Hamas said it would delay the next release of Israeli hostages. Trump pledged “all hell” in retaliation. However, within hours, Hamas seemed to ease the posture. And even Trump's statements had warnings suggesting he might not chase his threat.
Still, the standoff highlights the inherent vulnerability of the transaction and the decline in the likelihood that a ceasefire will last much longer than early March, when the ceasefire is set to pass unless Hamas and Israel can negotiate an extension. did.
All major players make it difficult for it to happen.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is wary of the expansion that will allow Hamas to maintain the dominant military force in Gaza. Hamas is nominally willing to share administrative control with other Palestinian factions, but there was no indication that it would disarm.
“They are likely to reach a compromise by Saturday,” said Ibrahim Dalalsha, director of the Horizon Centre, a political research group in Lamala on the West Bank. “But this crisis is a prelude to a much bigger crisis that will come in early March.”
The current standoffs stem in part from Hamas' accusations that Israel failed to support its promise for the six-week period that began on January 19th, the first phase of the ceasefire. Among other humanitarian supplies, Hamas' promise that Israel is not keeping, sends hundreds of thousands of tents to Gaza, among other humanitarian supplies.
Speaking on the terms of anonymity to discuss sensitive issues, three Israeli officials and two mediators said Hamas' claims were accurate.
However, Cogat, an Israeli military force that oversees the delivery of aid to Gaza, said in a written response that they were “a totally false accusations.” Since the start of the contract, hundreds of thousands of tents have come to Gaza. Also, fuel, generators, Israel pledged. ”
Anyway, officials and commentators say this aspect of the conflict can be resolved relatively easily if Israel allows more assistance to Gaza.
A more serious question is the broader perception that Netanyahu is trying to undermine negotiations on whether to extend the truce beyond early March.
These talks were intended to begin early last week. Instead, Netanyahu delayed sending the team. Qatar is intermediary between the two sides until earlier this week.
The delegation consisted of three officials who had not previously led Israeli negotiation efforts, according to five Israeli officials and one official from the intermediary country. And their mission was not to negotiate, but to listen.
According to two officials, the Israeli delegation announced that it would return to Israel after hearing general Qatari proposals for the next phase of negotiations.
It created the perception that Netanyahu played for time rather than trying to seriously extend the ceasefire.
All officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private consultations more freely.
In response to comment, Omer Dostri, the prime minister's spokesman, said Netanyahu “is making tireless efforts to return all the hostages held by the Hamastero organization.” Dostri added that he will send a negotiation team to discuss extensions of the deal after Israel is set up by the Cabinet and then Israeli position is set up.
However, Netanyahu often says Hamas will not maintain power at the end of the war. And a key member of Netanyahu's governing coalition called for an extension of the ceasefire to free more hostages, even if Hamas leaves power. Despite this, they repeatedly called for the war to resume in order to expel Hamas.
Analysts said Monday's threat in Hamas was an attempt to not only accelerate the delivery of aid to Gaza, but also to force Netanyahu to negotiate seriously.
It was also in response to Trump's recent statement on Gaza's depopulation that has not been envisaged for the Palestinians, not only Hamas, but also the future.
Hamas did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“There is rage between Hamas over both Netanyahu and Trump's demand that both Hamas and Trump be kicked out of Gaza,” said Michael Mirstein, an Israeli analyst on the Palestinian issue.
“Yesterday's announcement was like a signal that if we continue to demand this, there will be some dramatic crisis,” added Milstein.
Nathan Audenheimer and Gabby Soberman contributed the report.
