Attendance and clarification: Attendance may be prioritized due to small House Republican majority

It has long been said that parliaments are like schools.

What is the first thing they do in school? Take attendance.

That's one thing they don't usually do in Congress.

But it might happen next year.

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Knowing who is present and accountable and who is out will emerge as one of the most dramatic daily events at the Capitol.

It's always about the math on Capitol Hill.

But the 119th Congress will be all about math.

Every day in the House depends on who gets sick. A person who conducts parent-teacher conferences. Whose flight was delayed because of the snow? People who are just getting carried away and can't be trusted. A person who was giving a speech downtown got stuck in traffic and couldn't make it in time. Whose child will star in the school play? My aunt passed away.

President Trump and House Republicans have big plans for the 2025 Congressional agenda. But the very small size of the Republican majority could dampen these expectations on a day-to-day basis.

It will be interesting to see what Republicans can do.

Republicans are likely to enter the new year with a 219-215 majority. That is 434 seats. There is one vacancy due to the resignation of former Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-Florida). That's a difference of 4 seats. But in practice, this means that the Republican majority can tolerate only one defector from the Republican Party per roll call vote, without needing assistance from the other side. One Republican said “no”, 218 to 216. But the two Republican rebels broke the tie, 217-217. By rules, if there is a tie, you lose in the House.

But the start of the new Congress on Jan. 3 could be Hallicon Day for the House Republican Conference.

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-Fla.) and Rep. Michael Walz (R-Fla.) plan to resign in January to join the Trump administration. Stefanik is running for UN ambassador, and the post requires approval. The president-elect nominated Walz to be his national security adviser. This position is not subject to Senate confirmation. That would reduce the Republican majority to 217-215. At that point, Republicans cannot afford to lose any votes to pass their agenda.

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That's a problem for House Republicans, who have regularly had troops of defectors on everything from keeping the government open to impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. This could even pose a problem for House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) to return to the speaker's office. To become Speaker, Mr Johnson will need a majority of all MPs to vote when the new parliament convenes on January 3. Once the new Congress begins, he will have a bit of a cushion. But it's not that much. House Republicans are still suffering from political PTSD after it took 15 votes to elect former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) early last year.

yes. A special election will be held to fill the seats of Gaetz, Stefanik and Walz. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has already called a special election for Gaetz's seat on April 1st.

You can't make something like this up.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) waves from the stage during the third day of the Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin on July 17, 2024. (Leon Neal/Getty Images)

The other special elections are months away because Stefanik and Walz have not yet resigned. In fact, if Stefanik is confirmed and resigns in late January, a special election would be held for Stefanik's seat based on New York state law and the discretion given to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D). It may take place in May.

The results of a special election can produce “extraordinary” results. Ordinary voters regularly stay home and opponents win those seats in off-cycle elections. So even though these are “Republican” seats, there is no guarantee that Republicans will automatically win.

But if all goes as planned, Republicans will regain the seat in the coming months, giving them a relatively solid 220-215 majority. That means Republicans could lose up to two votes on key issues.

But there will always be absences. Always resigned.

And this isn't just limited to Republicans.

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There have long been concerns about the health and attendance of Rep. David Scott, 79, D-Ga., the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee. Scott faced criticism earlier this year for not appearing in public or giving interviews.

Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-Ariz.), 76, is the top Democrat on the House Natural Resources Committee. Mr. Grijalva has cancer and has vowed that this season will be his last. Grijalva was sidelined for several months due to the illness. He missed more than 300 roll call votes on the floor from February to this fall and did not conduct interviews.

The late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Texas), Rep. Bill Pascrell (D.N.J.) and Donald Payne Jr., D.N.J., were all in office when they passed away this year. The late Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) passed away in 2023.

Democrats are currently making a fuss about President-elect Trump's policies. It will be mandatory for all Democrats to attend in order to counter the Republicans and generally make life miserable for the majority. But Democrats can only do that if they show up. forever.

On Thursday, May 23, 2024, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (New York) held his weekly press conference at the Capitol Visitor Center. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc, via Getty Images)

That was the case last January and October, when House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York held the votes of all House Democrats during each speaker's roll call. Rep. David Tron, D-Maryland, was the only one to miss out on a few votes because he had surgery. However, Tron returned to the Capitol to vote later that night.

Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) was hospitalized in February of this year. But Greene came to the Capitol in a wheelchair in February and helped thwart the initial effort to impeach Mayorkas. The Republicans had three defectors on their side. Greene's vote, fresh from a hospital gurney, caused the Republican effort to fail on the floor and force her to try again.

One factor that posed a challenge for Republicans was the health of House Minority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana). Scalise was diagnosed with cancer last year and was sidelined in early 2023, but is now recovering. But his absence hampered Republicans on big votes, like the first to impeach Mayorkas.

Unfortunately, and inevitably, there will be times when I will be absent due to health reasons. And God forbids death. Parliament rarely passes without the death of a member, and sometimes unforeseen circumstances arise. The late Rep. Jackie Walorski (R-Indiana) and two of her aides died in a traffic accident in the summer of 2022.

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Hear the attendance bell ring in the House of Commons next year. Check weather forecasts and flight schedules for Reagan National Airport. If Waze flies to Dulles, you might want to keep an eye on Waze. Find out if the flu or another coronavirus disease passes Congress.

yes. Understanding whether someone supports or opposes a particular bill or amendment is always important in Congress. But more important is whether they actually exist.