Australia's relationship with the US is a second view

Australia is one of the closest allies in America. The two countries have fought each other in all major conflicts since World War I. Jake Sullivan, national security adviser to former President Joe Biden, said in January the two effectively took part in a “strategic marriage.”

However, recently Australians have been feeling rather like spouses to wake up one morning and find a complete stranger lying next to them. Many have seen how President Trump has treated other long-standing allies, such as Canada and Europe.

This week, Australia itself was hit, adding 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum with a 10% tariff on exports to the US. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Thursday said the move “will affect how Australians view this relationship.”

This makes Australians look at the strong, intertwined, dependent military ties with the United States, despite China's sense of growing military forces in the region.

“We deal with a very different America,” former Conservative Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull said in an interview. “We deal with America where the value of value no longer matches ours.”

As a country with 27 million people growing geographically comparable to the US continent, Australia has always relied on strong partners to defend it.

In recent years, Australia has become an integral part of the US military stance in the region to counter the rise in China's claims. The US Marines regularly docked submarines west through northern Australia, and the government signed a 2021 contract with Washington and London, known as Australia, and equipped with nuclear submarines for decades to come.

But now, given Trump's “America first” stance, there is a question of whether the assumptions underlying these arrangements are still held. Australia can rely on the US to help when necessary. And if it fundamentally disagrees with the views of the world, can Australia stand militarily by its American allies?

“We really need to correct what the US is thinking about as a country,” said John McCarthy, formerly US ambassador to Australia.

Turnbull, who served as part of Trump's first term, called a forum in the capital Canberra this week to discuss the US alliance. He said he did so because he felt that Australian political parties were not paying enough attention to the changes and challenges of the alliance and was focusing on domestic issues ahead of next month's federal election.

Politicians on both sides of the aisle say Australia needs to do more to defend itself. Albanese's labour government has announced plans to increase military spending to 2.3% of gross domestic product over the next decade, while opposition leader Peter Dutton has pledged to invest around $1.9 billion in a squadron of fighter jets.

Australia's long-term security plan was told as an unprecedented partnership, hearing and encouraging submarines with nuclear-powered submarines, including sharing sensitive American nuclear technology.

Under the agreement, Australia will first acquire US Virginia-class submarines in response to China's growing military influence, and ultimately build their own submarines. The propulsion of nuclear fuel allows them to secretly cover very long distances without surface.

However, since its signature, the agreement has faced questions in Australia about whether the US can speed up shipbuilding enough to hand over used submarines on time, and whether it will automatically draw into conflicts involving the US, such as beyond Taiwan.

The Trump administration's volatility and relationships with allies amplified skepticism.

“These are the best and most important aspects of the transaction,” said Hugh White, a former Intelligence Bureau employee who is emeritus in strategic studies at the Australian National University.

However, as long as Australians may feel the need for a more independent defense, national politicians are not communicating the resources they need to redirect to the public, said Charles Edel, Australia's chairman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Ultimately, Australia may need it because of the balance of power in the region, he said after the forum.

Dennis Richardson, a former foreign and defense secretary who served as Australia's ambassador to Washington, spoke as much as Turnbull's forum.

“I don't think you need to waste your time on Plan B,” he said, referring to the Orcas deal. “The worst thing we can do at this point is to change the horse.”