Balance of power: Five races that could determine control of the House in November

With less than three months to go until the presidential election, and the race heating up, candidates in smaller races across the country are also sprinting towards the finish line in November.

That includes 435 elections that will determine the balance of power in the House of Representatives next year.

“I'm pretty bullish on the Republican Party right now,” veteran GOP strategist Doug Heye told Fox News Digital. “This race is going to be close, especially in the battleground states, so that would temper some of that notion for me of, 'If Trump wins, the Republicans will keep the House, if Harris wins, the Democrats will take it back.'”

Meanwhile, Democratic strategist Joel Rubin is confident of the party's redistricting victories and renewed political enthusiasm since Vice President Kamala Harris took over the role from President Biden last month.

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“Of those 35, 40 battleground districts, I think 18 to 20 of those are Republican-leaning seats that Biden will win, so the map looks promising,” Rubin said. “And the difference between a month ago and now is clearly the enthusiasm of the Democrats. I think Democrats can take back the House with these numbers and these structural gains.”

Additionally, the margin of victory in the House of Representatives has continued to shrink in recent years, making control of the chamber likely to come down to a few key races, five of which Fox News Digital highlights below.

NY-17

New York Rep. Mike Lawler, a freshman Democrat, is running against former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in the suburbs just north of the Big Apple, and his district was one of several Biden won in 2020 that Democrats see a chance to retake.

Both Jones and Lawler have sought to portray the other as extremist, each associating their rival with their respective party's most unpopular policy positions.

Meanwhile, Lawler is regarded as one of the most bipartisan members of the 118th Congress.

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Jones, meanwhile, has moved more to the center, even endorsing a primary challenger to his former anti-Israel progressive colleague, Rep. Jamaal Bowman, drawing ire from his own wing of House Democrats.

“This is really important. Democrats may gain more votes against a moderate, well-regarded Republican. But this district used to be Democratic. And in New York, Democrats lost a seat they shouldn't have lost two years ago. This was the difference between minority and majority,” Rubin said.

“I'm betting on Lawler. He's a good fit for this district. I think there's still division on the Democratic side,” Hay said.

Lawler will face off against former Rep. Mondaire Jones. (Getty Images)

VA-07

Republicans and Democrats alike see Virginia's corner of the Washington, D.C., suburbs as an opportunity to win in the district being vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) to run for governor.

The Democratic candidate is Eugene Vindman, the brother of Alexander Vindman, who testified before Congress that led to the first impeachment of former President Donald Trump.

On the Republican side is Derrick Anderson, a lawyer and former Special Forces Green Beret.

Spanberger was elected in 2017, defeating a Tea Party Republican, and Republicans are hoping for an opportunity to retake the seat.

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“If I were to design a prototype for a Democratic candidate running in a battleground district, I would design Spanberger. She's a great fit for the district, but she's not running again, so that makes it difficult for Democrats, and I know outside groups are putting money into (the race),” Hay said.

Rubin defended Vindman, noting that both he and Spanberger have ties to the national security field, given Vindman's military experience and Spanberger's experience with the FBI.

“I think this is a piece where he can further develop the Spanberger brand,” he said.

MI-08

The other competitive seat is the one being vacated by Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) at the end of the year.

Rep. Dan Kildee will leave Congress at the end of his current term. (Getty Images)

The Mid-Michigan district has become increasingly conservative in recent years, but Biden narrowly defeated Trump by 2 percentage points in 2020, according to Bridge Michigan.

The race is between Democratic state Sen. Kristen McDonald-Rivett and former Trump administration appointee Paul Junge.

“What we've been hearing for a while now is that the vacancies are a drag on Democrats' calculations for taking back the House,” Hay said of the vacant seats in New York and Virginia.

MD-06

Maryland's 6th Congressional District could be a golden opportunity for Republicans to gain a seat in the Democratic-majority state, with Democratic Rep. David Trone retiring from Congress at the end of the year.

The Maryland seat vacated by retiring Rep. David Trone is Republicans' best hope of winning a seat in the state. (Getty Images)

April Delaney, whose husband, John Delaney, held the seat from 2013 to 2017, is running on the Democratic side against former Republican state representative Neil Parrott.

The district leans heavily Democratic, but a Washington Post article about the election noted that there are also 141,000 independent voters who could decide the outcome of the election.

Rubin said he supports Delaney's candidacy, but acknowledged that popular former Gov. Larry Hogan's run for the Senate seat could encourage more moderate voters to vote Republican in state legislative elections.

Republicans are rallying around Nick Begich (left) to challenge Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola in Alaska. (Getty Images)

AK-At Large

Hay said he also felt more confident about Republicans' chances of victory in Alaska, where the state's only congressional seat is decided by ranked-choice voting.

“There's a chance that (Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola) could win in Alaska, but she'd have to do a lot better than expected to do so,” a Republican strategist said. “Two weeks ago, we would have said the Republican Party was going to split and Democrats were going to win ranked choice voting. That framework doesn't exist anymore.”

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The general election was meant to be a three-way battle between Peltola, Republican Nick Begich and Alaska Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom.

But Republicans have banded together in recent days, with House GOP leadership backing Begich and Dahlstrom dropping out of the race.

Peltola, a moderate Democrat, is generally well-liked in a state that voted for Trump by about 10 percentage points more than Biden in the 2020 presidential election. Those trends suggest the race will be close.