Beware of Trump, Poland must look at nuclear options, Premier says

“Deep changes in American geopolitics” have put Poland and Ukraine in “objectively more difficult situations,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tass on Friday said his country must significantly increase the size of its military and “even increase reach to opportunities related to nuclear weapons.

In his detailed speech on security to the Polish Parliament, Tass did not expressly propose the development of nuclear weapons, but said it was time to boldly look at the possibility of us having the most modern weapons and explore the options of nuclear and “modern unconventional weapons.”

He added that his government is “seriously talking” with France, the only nuclear power plant in Europe except Britain and Russia, about the possibility of expanding French nuclear umbrellas to other European countries. Furthermore, Poland said it needs to ensure that all adult men are “trained in the event of war.”

His comments reflect a severe shift in the White House with the return of President Trump, who publicly denounced the NATO Alliance, poses doubts the US commitment to defending most of Europe in the event of a Russian attack, and misrepresents Russia's responsibility for invasion of Ukraine. Trump's views have been received with deep warnings in Warsaw and elsewhere in Eastern Europe.

Poland is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and bans the acquisition of atomic weapons from a country that was not one of five nuclear power plants that had the treaty enacted in 1970.

However, Israel, India, Pakistan, which has never signed the ban, and North Korea, which has withdrawn from the treaty, have all developed nuclear weapons and have been sporadic debate about joining nuclear clubs in Poland. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, former leader of Poland's governing party, said he would like to see Poland acquire nuclear weapons “as a citizen” in 2022, but “as a responsible politician, I must evaluate this idea as unrealistic.”

Russian officials have repeatedly suggested that nuclear weapons could be used in the fight against Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO. But so far, repeated escalations of aid have not prompted such a response.

The French Institute for International Relations warned in last year that “wars in Ukraine could increase the risk of proliferation as nuclear forces show that nuclear power can attack the enemy with traditional capabilities and can block third-party intervention in favor of nuclear threats.”

“War also sends a message that nuclear weapons are essential guarantors for national security,” the report said.

When the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, Ukraine acquired the world's third largest nuclear weapon on its territory, but in 1994, in exchange for pledges from Russia, the US and the UK, it waived in return for respecting the Ukrainian border and refraining from using or threatening its military force. Many Ukrainians regret giving up on this weapon as the government has vainly resorted to NATO membership and direct involvement of Western forces in the war.

Poland is the largest military force among former members of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact Military Alliance, currently a member of NATO. But those countries have long seen their nuclear weapons and thousands of troops stationed elsewhere in Poland and elsewhere in Eastern Europe, and have long been seen as guarantors of their security.

Poland has a long tradition of nuclear expertise, Marie Skrodowska Curie, a Polish-born French scientist who won a Nobel Prize in physics and chemistry for his pioneering work to discover radioactivity in the early 20th century. Polish mathematician and physicist Stanislo Ullam played a key role in the Manhattan Project, the US Secret Atomic Bomb Program during World War II, and the subsequent invention of the hydrogen bomb.

Under communism, Poland trained a large group of nuclear engineers in preparation for a nuclear power plant that began construction with Soviet aid but never finished. Last year, Poland approved plans for its first nuclear power plant under a contract with Westinghouse Electric in the US.

Tass devoted most of his speech to a new security situation created by the sudden collapse of what had been a pillar of American foreign policy since the end of World War II.

“We cannot deny these facts. Today, the situation in Poland, objectively, in particular in Ukraine, is more difficult than it had been a few months ago. We have to deal with this fact,” he said.

“Washington's much more symmetrical attitude towards Moscow and Kiev is much more symmetrical than we were used to, and is a little different from what we feel in Poland and Europe.

However, Tass declined to criticize Trump, saying that the “closest possible bond” with the US is still essential.

At the same time, he said Poland would expand its troops to about half a million employees, including reserves more than twice the size of its current size, increasing defence spending to 5% of economic production.

However, Tass ruled out Polish soldiers to Ukraine “as an accidental part.” This is an obvious reference to France's proposal that if European countries make an effort to mediate peace agreements to provide troops to future security forces.

Poland is already one of Europe's largest spenders, spending around 4% of its gross domestic product last year, with NATO doubleping the minimum 2% of its member nations. Unlike during Trump's first term, he accused them of not spending any more, but most NATO countries are now above that threshold when he questioned the US obligation to protect their allies.

“Tsuku said we wouldn't embrace the philosophy of being helpless and helpless,” Pauls said.

“I look incredible again, but I repeat that it's true. 500 million Europeans are pleading for 300 million Americans to protect us from the 180 million Russians who have failed to deal with 40 million Ukrainians for three years,” he said.

Europe has a way to protect itself, but “one important deficit needs to be eliminated,” he added.

Mark Sontra helped report from Kiev, Ukraine.