President Trump has shown the north to the north, repeatedly pushing for his lawsuit to absorb Canada as the “51st nation.”
Of course, few people in Washington take their prospects seriously. Canada has made it clear that it is not interested in participating in the US, and it appears unlikely that Trump will send it to the 82nd Airborne Division to force the issue. But if the idea appeals to his own grand sense of being a historical figure in Trump's empire building, it could overturn his own party's prospects.
After all, Canada, a land of socialized healthcare, friendly immigration policies and commitment to environmental protection, is, after all, not exactly the territory of Maga. Some early studies of general opinion and voting patterns reveal that making it a nation will result in Republicans sacrificing control of the House, reaping a majority in the Senate, and winning the White House in future elections. It will make it difficult.
“I can't believe I'm saying this, but I strongly agree with Donald Trump,” said Steve Israel, former president of New York, who led the Democratic Congressional campaign committee. “Canada remains largely from the center, and making it the 51st state will provide universal health care and combat climate change, with more votes from Congress and electoral colleges. It means Democrats.”
It is not clear whether Trump understands that absorbing Canada can be self-destructive for Republicans. He never specifically engaged in party buildings and expressed no concern about what would happen politically after taking office. In last year's campaign, he told Christian supporters that after selecting him in November, “there is no longer necessary to vote.”
“If that happens, it will be a political bounty for Democrats,” said Douglas Hay, a longtime Republican strategist. “But that's not really part of the discussion. Trump relies on loud noises that get a response — and his batting record is pretty high.”
Certainly, Trump's story of annexing Canada appears to be a way to troll his north neighbors as part of his pressure on trade and other concessions. It managed to get under their skin. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told a group of business leaders in comments that he deemed it “real” rather than a joke.
All 13 Canadian provincial and territorial prime ministers traveled to Washington last week as part of a joint mission to strengthen Canada-US relations and ease the trade war that Trump began. After the meeting, White House Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair said online that Trump's comments that Canada has become the 51st state should be “taken at face value.” Ta.
However, the Canadian conception as a nation, however unlikely to be far arrogant, is an interest in the political class and is the source of Washington's parlor game. With 40 million people and 3.8 million square miles, Canada soon becomes the largest and most populous state of unions, beating all 50 other states on land, and slightly surpassing California's population I did.
Canada will also be more politically blurred than California, judging from past trends. A survey by voting company Leger found that nearly two-thirds of Canadians, or 64%, said they had voted for Kamala Harris, while only 21% said they were in support of Trump.
If Canada had 55 electoral college votes based on population, it would have increased Harris' total from 226 to 281. However, such changes would leave less margins for future Republicans starting each race, adding 55 electoral college votes at democratic bases.
The big impact is at home. John A. Toose, a professor of political science at Lagrangian College, Georgia, said that since three Canadian territories deal with territories like Samoa in the United States, while three Canadian territories are being handled by the United States. , analysed the implications of 10 Canadian provinces when they were brought collectively. , Guam, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands, which have not voted for the president.
In that case, as was done regularly in the 19th century, Republicans lose a small majority of their homes, according to Tures' calculations, based on the assumption that seat numbers will increase to accommodate a new population. Sho.
Instead of winning 220-215, as was done in November, Republicans would have handed out small givers to Democrats with a majority of 246-234. It is simply redistributed based on population, as has been done over the past century, but the trends are similar.
If Canada is recognized as a single state, those two Senate seats will likely go to Democrats, as Trump seems to imagine. The Republican current majority of 53-47 will be trimmed to 53-49, not enough to change room control, but it will be difficult for Trump to govern.
If each Canadian state is recognized as a separate province, Tures said that five new Senate seats will be the most conservative regions of Canada (two from Alberta, two from Saskatchewan and one from Manitoba. 15 new senators thought of going to Republicans. Other states go to Democrats and flip controls.
Of course, his prediction was established assuming that all Conservative votes in Canada would be sent to Trump's Republicans and that Democrats could build a coalition of several Canadian parties on the left side of the Conservative Party. Ta. It's logical if it's not a specific reasoning. But it gives us a sense of how political landscapes change in the United States.
Tures, who wrote about an earlier version of his analysis, said he has since gotten feedback from Canadians. “They aren't satisfied with Trump's tactics and threats, but some have an opportunity to take over our politics by giving Democrats a vote to make us more people politically. I joked that I would appreciate it,” he said.
However, it can be even more complicated. Longtime Democratic strategist Douglas B. Sosnik says that Quebec, which has already been deprived of security from Canada over the past decades, will be extremely hampered from ultimately declaring independence through annexation by the US He said it could be. .
“The Democrats will control Vancouver and Ontario, but that's the rest of Canada that supports Republicans,” he said.
However, there are no states that don't actually want to join the United States. Of all Canadian adults, only 15% support becoming part of their south neighbors, but 77% against it, according to a survey by YouGov. Even among conservatives, only 23% support the idea, while 73% do not.
So, based on that, at least Trump should not raise his hopes. Nor should Democrats. But that doesn't mean they can't dream.
“Canada is blue,” Israel said. “We'll take all the help President Trump wants to give us.”
