To get its people to have more children and stop population decline, China has done everything it can to stop its population from shrinking, even declaring that having children is an act of patriotism. Nevertheless, its population decreased for three consecutive years.
Even if the number of births increases surprisingly for the first time in seven years, it will not be possible to reverse the trend of aging and population decline.
China is staring at a long-term baby bust with repercussions throughout the economy. Hospitals have closed their maternity wards, and companies that sell baby formula have idled their factories. Thousands of kindergartens will close, and more than 170,000 kindergarten teachers will lose their jobs by 2023.
One former kindergarten teacher in the southern city of Chongqing said the country's birth rate was “falling off a cliff.” Kindergarten enrollment in China has plummeted by more than 5 million students in 2023, according to the most recently available data.
On Friday, the Office for National Statistics reported that the number of infants born last year was 9.54 million, a slight increase from 9.02 million in 2023. Combined with the number of deaths in 2024 (10.93 million people), China's population has decreased for the third consecutive year.
Experts say the increase in newborns was small this year, in part due to the auspicious year of the dragon, but the broader trajectory remained unchanged. China's childbearing population is decreasing, and young people are reluctant to have children.
“In the medium to long term, the annual number of births in our country will continue to decline,” said Professor Ren Yuan of Fudan University's Population Research Institute.
A shortage of babies is exacerbating China's economic challenges. A shrinking working-age population is straining underfunded pension systems, and an aging society relies on a creaky health care system. Also on Friday, China reported economic growth of 5% in 2024, which was in line with expectations, but many experts said it was facing a crisis in household confidence reeling from a multi-year real estate crisis. He pointed out that it was not completely reflected.
To encourage people to have more babies, authorities are offering tax incentives, cheaper housing and cash grants. The city has promised to cover the cost of IVF. Some parts of the country have even pledged to eliminate regulations that penalize single mothers.
The government called on local authorities to put in place early warning systems to monitor major changes in population at the village and town level across the country. Some authorities knock on doors or make phone calls to ask women about their menstrual cycles.
Companies are also getting involved. In 2023, travel website Trip.com will begin paying its employees nearly $1,400 a year for each newborn up to age 5. The founder of electric car maker XPeng said last week that he would give his employees nearly $4,100 if they had their third child.
“We want our employees to have more children,” founder He Xiaopeng said in a video posted on social media. “I think companies should pay for their employees to have children.”
This problem is not unique to China, which will overtake India as the world's most populous country in 2023. Fertility rates tend to decline as income and education levels rise, so declining birth rates are often an indicator of a country's rise in the economic ladder. However, the sudden decline in China's population came much sooner than the government expected. Many families earn more than they did 10 years ago, but have lost income due to the housing crisis.
Officials have long worried that one day there won't be enough workers to support retirees. Governments now have less time to prepare. More than 400 million people will be over 60 years old in the next 10 years.
China faces two challenges in this regard. Its public pension system is severely underfunded, and many young people are unwilling or unable to contribute. The situation is further exacerbated by the low retirement age. After several years of deliberation, the government decided on a 15-year plan to gradually raise the official age to 63 for men, 58 for women in office jobs, and 55 for women working in factories. The changes took effect this month.
The party eased birth limits in 2015, allowing families to have two children, but the relaxation sparked a sudden boom. The hospital didn't have enough beds, so they had to add more beds in the hallway.
However, that moment did not last long. By 2017, the number of births began to decline every year until last year.
In 2021, panicked authorities eased China's birth policies again, allowing couples to have three children. It was too late. The following year, very few babies were being born, and the population began to decline for the first time since the Great Leap Forward, Mao's failed experiment in the 1960s that led to mass starvation and death.
China's birth rate is one of the lowest in the world, far below what demographers call the replacement rate for population growth. This threshold requires every couple to have an average of two children.
Experts said the number of births is likely to continue to fluctuate.
“For a country of 1.4 billion people, 500,000 more births is not much of a recovery at all,” said Wang Feng, a sociology professor at the University of California, Irvine. “This is compared to the lowest year, 2023, when births were firmly halted due to the pandemic.”
Many young people in China are quick to cite reasons for not having children, including rising education costs, the increasing burden of caring for aging parents, and a desire to live a lifestyle known as “two-income, no-children.” .
This feeling is especially strong for women. As the only children in their families, daughters often received educational and employment opportunities that their parents did not. They have grown up to be powerful women who believe Mr. Xi's appeals to them to fulfill their patriotic duties and have children are too much. Many of these women say persistent inequalities and inadequate legal protections make them reluctant to marry.
The rapid decline in the number of infants is having a serious impact on healthcare, education, and even the consumer market. Companies that once made money selling powdered milk to feed baby boomers are now making shakes with calcium and selenium for older adults with fragile bones.
Nestlé, the world's largest food company, will close a factory in Europe that employs more than 500 people and serves the Chinese market. A company spokesperson said the company will focus on selling premium baby products and expanding its adult nutrition products in China.
Pressure on China's health care system has become more pronounced. Dozens of hospitals and maternal and child health clinic chains are reported to have closed in the past two years.
On social media forums, obstetrical nurses are talking about low pay and job loss. One doctor told state media that a job in obstetrics, once considered a “steel bowl” position with guaranteed employment, is now a “rusty iron bowl”.
Some small hospitals have also stopped paying salaries to their staff, Han Zhonghou, a former staff member at a hospital in northern China, told a Chinese magazine.
“Life at mother and child hospitals is getting tougher every year,” Han said.
