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In 2016, columnist Salena Zito coined a typical phrase about Donald Trump's meteoric rise when he realized that his supporters were taking him seriously, but not literally, his detractors literally took him but not serious.
This week, perhaps for the first time, the dynamics changed. When it comes to tariffs, President Trump should literally be absolutely taken, and so far he has done exactly what his most loyal supporters want him.
To be fair, Trump may be the most accomplished and exaggerated employer since Pt Barnum. This is his call to make Canada the 51st province, taking over Greenland with military force or turning Gaza into a five-star resort destination.
Price tag: How much can Americans pay between pay and tax cuts?
In all of these cases, Trump appears to be saying things on top, in order to force a response and bring other actors to the negotiation table himself in a position of strength.
So it makes sense that Chicken's president's match against tariffs on other parts of the world could be a 5D negotiation strategy. Free market-oriented Republicans argued that it was the most likely reality throughout the election, and that it was most likely even up to this moment.
Even stubborn Trump partner Elon Musk has distanced himself from tariff policies and shared a well-known video of economist Milton Friedman, explaining how free trade can keep pencil prices low.
On Monday, Milton Friedman's pencil met Donald Trump's Sharpie.
On Tuesday, I was more clear from Vice President JD Vance in response to my X-Post two weeks ago that Democrats claimed they wanted to enrich their fellow billionaires, but now I'm losing money and asking Trump to change course.
Don't forget, Donald Trump's presidency was the Reform Party established in 2016 as a Republican, not as a Republican, but as a candidate for the Reform Party in 2000, to push Ross Perro back into NAFTA and other trade deals.
“It's strange to see all the limousine socialists desperately shrieking out for their dependence on China's supply chain and inflated stocks,” Vance wrote. That doesn't sound like the administration is bluffing, but try to share it with the market and the media.
They can't yet speculate that Trump might actually impose strict tariffs rather than finding an off-ramp. And we've already seen evidence of that this week.
Indonesia, other countries come to Trump's tariffs on negotiation table
On Monday, in a dark comedy moment, the market recovered almost 1,000 points in news from CNBC that Trump was considering a 90-day suspension on tariffs. The only problem is that this “broken news” came from a fake X account that could have been 12 years old in a bedroom in Belarus.
After about 20 minutes, the profits were wiped out.
How does this happen? easy. It's too good to check. Trump's backdown is exactly what everyone in the market and in the media was hoping to expect, so of course they jumped at news that could have come from Fortune Cookies.
However, there is strong reason to believe that Trump is not involved in the exaggeration to get a better deal. In fact, the fight against globalism is Trump's lifelong passion and what he might consider his most important job as president.
After all, Donald Trump's presidency is not a Republican in 2016, but a Reform Party founded in 2000 as a candidate for the Reform Party, but in 2000, to fight back against NAFTA and other trade deals.
Trump puts it all at risk, takes the world with tariffs, puts America first
The Reform Party was also home to Pat Buchanan, another anti-free trader and cultural warrior who in many ways portends Trump.
This fight lies in the president's political DNA.
Moreover, Trump's base, the only group the president seems to have answered so far, not only literally taking his tariff regime, but also cheers it on as the first real step to restoring communities deemed broken by free trade.
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After 30 years of broken promises about green industry, big technology and shovel-enabled jobs, many small town America see Trump's tariffs as their only chance.
This is why Trump's approval ratings are more or less stable despite the tariff-tempered tantrums we see in most media. Even in polls showing his support for the economy underwater, he still has 40-45% of his strongest supporters, Americans, who support him.
Certainly, President Trump could arrive in transactions with individual countries or their groups to avoid a trade war. We have seen movements in that direction over Israel, Vietnam and the European Union over the past few days.
However, this does not mean that general wisdom suggesting that such a transaction is inevitable is correct. In fact, it is not even clear that abandoning customs duties is likely a consequence at this point.
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Americans do not end up buying essential items in large box stores in anticipation of economic disasters, rather than to the frustration of the liberal media. Walmart has a lot of toilet paper, not because Americans are sure there will be no tariffs. That's because they're not so terrified of the possibility that they would do that.
Sometimes proven rules are the exception, and when it comes to tariff issues, I thought Americans should literally take Donald Trump seriously.
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