Visiting a Walmart in Ozark, Missouri, in early January, Laura Modrell was surprised to see shoppers “standing around and gasping” in the grocery store's dairy section. As I approached, I saw that the shelves that were normally filled with egg cartons were mostly empty.
“We've pretty much run out of regular-sized egg cartons,” Modrell said. “I heard some elderly people getting really upset.”
Across the country, grocery shoppers are facing empty shelves and rising prices for eggs, traditionally a cheap source of protein.
And it could get even worse.
Fluctuations in egg prices are partly due to inflation, which is a part of grocery shopping, but also due to the avian influenza that entered the United States in 2022. The flu is caused by the H5N1 virus and has infected or killed 136 million birds.
However, recently it has become increasingly popular. More than 30 million chickens, roughly 10 percent of the country's egg-laying population, have been culled in the past three months alone to prevent the spread of the disease. It could take several months for the supply of laying hens to return to normal levels of around 318 million hens (equivalent to one hen per person).
“This is the most devastating wave of bird flu outbreaks we've experienced since it started spreading three years ago,” said Karin Rispoli, egg editor-in-chief at Expana, a company that tracks egg collection and prices. he said. “And this time, farms that serve the retail sector have been disproportionately affected, which is leaving a gaping hole.”
The number of egg-laying hens has plummeted, and the wholesale price of eggs has soared. Grocery stores and restaurants are now paying about $7 for a dozen eggs, a record level from $2.25 last fall, according to Expana.
Customers have noticed rising egg prices, which are now 37 percent more expensive for consumers than a year ago, but the full impact of the shortage is not yet being felt. Grocery stores typically price items like milk and eggs as “loss leaders.” This means they are sold for less than the wholesale price the store pays to drive customers into the store.
Karen Meleta, a spokeswoman for retailer-owned supermarket cooperative Wakefern, which operates stores such as ShopRite and Gourmet Garage, said in an emailed statement that the grocer has tried to maintain egg prices. , “It's a difficult balance to strike, especially given the circumstances.'' Market volatility and uncertainty due to the continued spread of the virus. ”
Across the country, shoppers found empty shelves and a limited number of cartons available for purchase. That can cause panic and lead to shoppers hoarding eggs out of fear that they might not be able to find them later.
Before Thanksgiving, Sarah Joy Hayes, owner of Bakery Counterspace in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, said, She said she paid less than $2 for a dozen eggs for chocolate chip cookies and quiche. But then prices began to rise rapidly. After the seller offered her a price of $7.86 for 12 eggs, she hopped in her car and drove to a nearby Sam's Club, where she bought 12 eggs for $3.86.
“There are only a limited number of cases of eggs available at Sam's Club, so you have to make multiple trips,” Hayes said. “But I feel like I stole the deal at this point, so I'll do it.”
During the presidential campaign, Donald J. Trump accused the Biden administration of inflation and promised to lower prices for consumers. The spread of bird flu will make that pledge even more difficult. United Egg Producers, a lobbying group for egg producers, this week urged Congress and the new Trump administration to increase funding for rapid testing and potential genetic development at the state and federal level, among other measures. urged swift action to develop a national strategy to combat avian influenza. vaccine.
During Thursday's confirmation hearing, President Brooke Rollins said: Trump's agriculture secretary nominee told senators that one of his top priorities is “immediate and comprehensive understanding of animal disease outbreaks,” without providing further details. Ta.
For egg farms, help in finding solutions to the virus cannot come soon enough.
Tracy and Jason Ramsdell, a poultry farmer in rural South Dakota and California, recently lost 40,000 free-range chickens in California after an outbreak of avian influenza in December. died. Although the federal government is paying compensation for the birds that have to be culled, Ms Ramsdell said the farm would still suffer losses of “tens of thousands of dollars” and would need at least six months to repopulate the chickens and restart. He said it would take months. work.
“Anyone working in the animal industry right now is probably nervous,” Ramsdell said. “I don't think this is going to stop until we come together and get some solid, concrete answers about what's going on.”
Federal health officials are closely monitoring the latest strain of avian influenza, which is deadly to chickens, but has also been detected in cattle that normally recover from the flu with treatment.
Currently, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says the risk to humans remains low and pasteurized dairy products are safe to consume. Eggs are also safe to eat as long as they are cooked at the right temperature to kill bacteria and viruses, but prices are likely to rise and the gap in store shelves is likely to widen further, analysts warn. I am doing it.
“It could take six months for the market to stabilize,” said Brian Moscogiuli, vice president of New Jersey wholesaler Eggs Unlimited. “We need to see the bird flu epidemic stop, we need a period where farms can rear chickens again without being affected, and we need to see demand start to slow down.”
In addition to infecting laying hens, the virus also struck farms raising chicks for sale to egg-laying operations. Farms that have culled chickens infected with the virus will have to wait even longer before restarting operations.
“If you order a chick today, you may not receive it until April or October of 2026,” Rispoli said.
All types of poultry are susceptible to H5N1 virus infection. Cases have been reported at Turkish operations, and food industry analysts are now seeing the first outbreak in broilers raised for meat production in Georgia, the country's largest poultry producing state. We are closely monitoring reports.
The outbreak was confirmed in mid-January on two farms near each other in northern Georgia, and about 175,000 chickens were culled, said Matthew Agbento, communications director for the Georgia Department of Agriculture.
But to limit the spread of infection, the state ordered a 10.9km quarantine zone around the two farms, restricting the ability of another 120 poultry farms in the area to ship chickens to processors without special approval. said Agben.
Egg producers are increasingly calling on lawmakers to move quickly to develop and administer vaccines to domestic chickens and birds.
But even vaccines may not eradicate it. Chad Hart, an economics professor at Iowa State University, said the epidemic continues. In addition to the uncertain cost of vaccinating more than 300 million birds, avian influenza is constantly changing, meaning vaccines may miss new strains that arise. In fact, in early January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture stated that none of the vaccines available on the market match the current virulent strain found in recent outbreaks.
Also, vaccinating all birds in the U.S. could hurt poultry exports, Hart said. The United States exports approximately $5.5 billion in poultry meat each year.
“Different countries use different criteria when it comes to vaccination,” Hart said. “Vaccines have been used for many years as a reason to block imports and exports from various countries.”
