As President Trump has vowed to bring back our support to Ukraine, European leaders are worried that they will not be able to supply Ukraine with the weapons they need.
So far, they seem right.
The so-called coalition of European willingness for Ukraine has been struggling to bring materials to the battlefield at that point, ever since Trump made it clear that Ukraine needs to put more loads on the security and itself.
That's one reason why Ukrainian Congress overwhelmingly approved a contract on Thursday to give the United States more future revenue than natural resources, including minerals. There is no security guarantee, but it opens up the possibility of ongoing shipments of American weapons and other military aid.
“This gives us hope,” said Yehor Chernev, vice-chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament's National Security, Defense and Intelligence Email Committee.
In an interview shortly after the vote, Cherneviz said Ukrainian forces are declining with long-range missiles, artillery and, more than anything, ballistic air defense systems. Most of it is manufactured in the US, according to a Kiel Institute's analysis of the world economy. The majority of it is manufactured in the US.
By summer, there will be no more military aid approved under the Biden administration, and Trump appears reluctant to renew it.
“He said he needed more weapons, but he's been saying that for three years,” Trump said after meeting Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky in Rome last month. (The Trump administration has allowed Ukraine to purchase small dollar weapons directly from American manufacturers, but not with support from the US government.)
European allies collectively give roughly half of the roughly $130 billion military support that has been provided to Ukraine since Russia invaded in 2022. The US sent the rest.
While European leaders and investors appear willing to put more money into arms production, industry executives and experts predict it will take 10 years to speed up the assembly line.
“Europe is trying to exchange the support they have lost from the US, but unfortunately they don't have the ability to do this,” Chernev said. “It takes time between decisions and real support.”
Trump has recently shown more consistency with Ukraine, but his broader dissives to 80 years of US protection in Europe, including threatening sanctions against Russia on Thursday, have urged allies to rethink their security.
Allies fear that Trump will pull Russian deterrents from Europe, like the US military and the US nuclear umbrella. Focusing on their own protection eats on what other European countries may have given Ukraine.
“They bumped into the double problem of having to raise themselves and supply Ukraine, and their industrial capabilities are not large enough to do both,” said Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute, a member of the British Army.
He said that Europe could backfill most of what it offered to Ukraine with weapons.
And for now? “No, it's not short-term,” Savill said.
Weapons are not just about life and death of Ukrainian soldiers. Without proper supplies, Ukraine could lose its territory if it was forced to retreat. The ceasefire agreement, which Trump is trying to mediate, carries out conflict. This allows Russia to maintain all the basis it has captured in the intervening.
Certainly, the flow of weapons from Europe to Ukraine continues even as American delivery drys out. Germany recently sent over 60 mine-resistant armored vehicles, around 50,000 artillery artillery and many air defense ammunition, including an IRIS-T interceptor that can defeat cruise missiles. Several drones purchased by the UK and Norway were announced last month as part of a $600 million security package and have since arrived in Ukraine. Estonia has sent 10,000 shells.
However, much of the European military support pledged at NATO headquarters last month belonged to a commitment to producing or sourcing arms over the next few years. Ukraine may need American weapons for some time.
Part of Europe's financial support will support the Ukrainian defence industry. Chernev said about 800 Ukraine companies are producing weapons. He estimated that Ukraine could produce $35 billion worth of weapons in the future, but estimated that at least $14 billion would need to be invested by allies to get there. On Saturday, Denmark announced it was frozen in Russian assets of around $930 million to support the Ukrainian defence industry on behalf of the European Union Fund.
Already, Ukraine stirs millions of drones each year. For example, Savill said, including cheap Kamikaz to save on shell supply. Similarly, the Western intelligence agency, which closely monitors the war, said Ukrainian forces are better at rationing patriot air defense missiles by using less expensive interceptors to remove smaller threats.
“They want more cruise missiles, more ballistic missiles and a variety of other weapons,” Savill said.
