The European Union spent last year creating a secret plan for what the bloc would do if President Trump was blessed with the threat of imposing high tariffs on European goods and services.
Now, as these threats go from hypothetical to potentially pressing, the plan is becoming a broad focus.
Like products made in Republican states, it has targeted tariffs aimed at attacking concrete, politically sensitive sectors and inflicting maximum pain. If avoidable, don't escalate into a competition for tats. Move quickly and decisively with new tactics that could hit service providers like Big Silicon Valley Technology companies.
This is a rough playbook. This is widely explained by three diplomats who demanded anonymity because the plan was still being discussed, but Europe doesn't want to use it. The first goal is to avoid a trade war by offering to negotiate and hang the carrots, including the European purchase of more American gas that Trump has been pushing for. EU officials warn that the trade war between the bloc and the US will be a self-destructive disaster that costs both sides and benefits geopolitical rivals like China and Russia.
But Trump has kept the continent in his cross hair, and this week Bullock says he will “undetectedly” face tariffs and “pretty soon.” If mitigation fails, Europe is broadcasting that it is ready to fight back.
“We're ready,” said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, at a press conference in Brussels this week, and she was ready to dodge tariff hikes from the new US administration. He spoke when asked if he was.
The committee, the executive arm of the bloc, has been sternly putting on its lips about which products will likely collide with higher tariffs, even if they meet with ambassadors and other diplomats in EU countries. Masu. The so-called Trump Task Force. The bloc has 27 member states, and plans that are too widely shared are likely to leak, eliminating strategic advantages.
However, some guiding principles are becoming increasingly clear, and the two diplomats say both the results of the work by the committee's task force and the experiences collected from Trump's first term. This is the result of. The diplomats requested anonymity to discuss politically sensitive issues.
The first idea is that tariffs are likely to be covered, whether they meant being placed in a particular industry or a geographically linked product. For example, in 2018, Europe responded to steel and aluminum tariffs by attacking American whiskey with large tariffs that would damage the Kentucky bourbon industry, and thus the leader of the Senate majority party at the time. This is an important constituency for the Kentucky Republican Mitch McConnell.
The second idea is to stagger, kick or ratchet retaliation over answers only if a particular trigger is met or a date is passed, the two diplomats said. According to one diplomat, it intentionally provides more leverage and avoids immediate and painful trade effects.
Third, according to all three diplomats, the answer is not necessarily a tert. If Trump orders more than 20% tariffs in Europe and 20%, that doesn't mean that Europe must respond with 20% ship-on-ship tariffs in the US. The EU still wants to comply with global trade rules supported by the World Trade Organization.
One option for the table is to use “anti-course instruments.” This is a relatively new legal framework that allows for rapid targeting of large American service providers such as large technology companies with tariffs.
Since 2023, the tool uses “broad range of possible measures” such as higher tariffs and import restrictions when the EU is putting pressure on governments and harming European industries to bring about political or policy changes. You can do it. The idea is to allow the bloc to respond quickly and harshly to manipulated political pressures.
Initially, the Financial Times reported that the committee could use the tools to attack service providers, including large Silicon Valley technology companies, in response to US tariffs. The two diplomats confirmed that the use of the tool is being discussed, although far from a solid plan.
They said that moving forward with the tools might be too dramatic of options, as Europe's ultimate goal is not to inflam the full trade war.
For now, it is impossible for Europe to solidify its response plan. Simple reason: No one knows what Trump is trying to do.
“They want to make a deal – I think they are very uncertain about what their true purpose is,” said Jorn Fleck, senior director of the European Centre for the Atlantic Council's Research Group.
Also, EU leaders have a hard time bringing Washington over the phone from time to time. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was invited to meet with the Foreign Minister, known as Kaha Karas, the top diplomat of the bloc, but he did not. Von der Leyen has not met Trump since taking office in January.
Trump hasn't said what European tariffs look like, but he repeatedly says he wants Europe to buy more American cars and produce in addition to gas. I did.
It provided Europe that provided incentives to dodge the trade war before the trade war began. Officials have revealed that they are even poised to buy more American fuel. Officials are trying to discover diversity in energy sources as the continent is far from Russian gas.
“We still get a lot of LNG from Russia. Why not replace it with American LNG?” Trump said, referring to liquefied natural gas since Trump was elected. He said it for a few days after that.
European officials also say they are likely to buy more American defense products as they are increasing military spending across the bloc. Higher military spending is part of the response to Trump, who claimed that European countries were spending more on NATO.
And when it comes to Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a member of the EU that Trump wants to annex for strategic importance, Europeans openly say they will invest more in the island. It emphasizes that it is.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Fredericksen said this week in Brussels that “when we are talking about defense, security and deterrence, I fully agree with the Americans that Arctic regions are becoming increasingly important.” , we can find ways to ensure a stronger footprint in Greenland.”
Among other things, European leaders have been trying to remind America how important the relationship between the EU and the US is for economic and global peace.
It is treated as the bloc, the most important trading partner in the United States, not just in the EU. He is also a leading importer of American services, and as officials have repeatedly highlighted recently, European companies employ millions of Americans.
“A lot is at stake for both parties,” von der Leyen said this week.
But she added, “We will always protect our interests, but whenever we need it.”
Anna Swanson contributed the report.
