International tourists detained at the US border. Sudden tariffs imposed on trading partners. A threat to long-standing allies.
The Trump administration's contested policy and language onslaught in recent weeks has forced tourists around the world to cancel or reconsider their trip to the US. More and more visitors say they feel unwelcome or unsafe and are reluctant to support the economy of a country that says some foreigners are engaged in trade wars and destabilizing their allies. The new draft travel ban that will pass through the administration could limit the inclusion of citizens from up to 43 countries into the United States, including Belarus, Cambodia and Saint Lucia.
“So many Americans are trying to escape the tense and toxic atmosphere of their homes. Why do anyone want to visit, especially now, in all arbitrary detention with immigrants?” Marory Henderson, 53, a marketing consultant in London, usually visits the United States twice a year, has cancelled a trip to visit this Easter Boston brothers.
“It's a truly hostile and scary time, and frankly, there are plenty of other charming and comfortable places I can go to meet my family,” she said.
Even before the management changes in January, the US travel industry struggled to recover from the pandemic, primarily due to the strength of the dollar. According to the American Travel Association, international inbound visitors are not expected to reach 2019 levels, and foreign visitors spending is not expected to fully recover until 2026.
But these expectations may now be even more difficult to reach, travel experts say.
Research firm Tourism Economics originally predicted a 9% increase in travel to the US this year, but it updated its outlook in February, predicting inbound travel would fall by 5.1% in 2025 and hotel demand would fall by 0.8%. Much of the decline was the result of boycotts by Canadian travelers. After President Trump announced tariffs in Canada in February, the number of Canadians driving across the border fell 24% compared to the same period in 2024.
Airlines are responding to uncertainty. Some people, including Delta and American Airlines, cut their financial forecasts for the first few months of the year, citing the softness of travel spending. United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said the carrier reduced the frequency of numerous routes to Canada to the US as “a significant reduction in Canada's traffic.”
“The shift in negative sentiment is expected to be maintained by an evolving mix of Trump administration factors, including geopolitical frictions over trade and national security policy, rhetoric and hostile stances,” said Adam Sachs, president of tourism economics.
“Highly visible border security, immigration policies and enforcement measures are also expected to block visits,” he added.
Uncertainty at the US border has led several countries, including the UK, Germany and Canada, to update US travel advisories, highlighting that visa exemptions do not guarantee entry into the country, and that foreign visitors suspected of breaking immigration rules at the border could be detained or arrested. The warning comes after a series of detention at US ports of entry, including foreign tourists and green card holders. This month, French officials said French scientists were denied entry because his phone searched upon arrival contained personal opinions on Trump administration policies. US authorities rejected the claim, saying the denial was not linked to his “political beliefs.”
“I don't feel that's right.”
European travel operators have yet to report a major wave of cancellations on the scale of Canada, where many residents boycott travel to the US, but are rethinking their spring and summer plans. Eric Dresin, executive director of the European Association of Travel Agents and Tour Operators, said a “turbulence era” could be expected, especially if more countries are affected by US policy changes.
Arrivals to the US from Western Europe fell 1% in February after a 14% increase in the same period last year, according to preliminary data from the US National Travel and Tourism Agency.
Christophe Bartel, 28, a German citizen living in Norway, was planning a trip to Arizona this summer to visit the national park. He cancelled his plans last week in response to the Trump administration's firing of national park employees and reversing environmental regulations.
“We don't feel that supporting the US economy is right when the president is causing so many obstacles,” Bartel said. “It's a shame we'll abandon the special trip we've been planning for months, but we'll go to Canada or Mexico instead.”
After Canada and Mexico, the UK has supplied the largest number of visitors to the US last year. Travel agents frequently visit the US and see divisions between clients who are not thwarted by the political situation and clients looking for alternative destinations in response to policy changes.
The pure cost of visiting the US as a result of the pandemic seems to have also been at the forefront of the pure cost.
“The US has always been considered to be truly good value,” said Alan Wilson, managing director of Bon Voyage Travel & Tours, a British company specializing in travel to the US and Canada. In addition to the strength of the dollar, hotel prices are also rising, and sudden hints are a problem for many visitors.
“The UK market absolutely hates the 20% conversion culture and the fact that America is always reaching out for the next reward,” he said. “They would rather pay upfront.”
Wilson said his company saw a 5% decline in US reservations this year compared to the same period last year, but he didn't expect that numbers would change significantly by summer, as most customers have already booked on a multi-de station US itinerary that was confirmed a year ago.
Crunch hurts
In places like New York, Florida and California, this crunch is felt by small travel businesses. Luke Miller, owner of family-owned company Real New York Tours, said his business had been smashed after a large number of Canadian visitors were cancelled following Trump's announcement on tariffs.
“I have 20 bus road seniors cancelled upcoming tours, which is a loss of thousands of dollars for my small business,” Miller said, adding that he has been cancelled until the winter holiday season and has not received bookings from Europeans this summer. He called the situation “heartbreaking.”
Major destinations like New York and California are stepping up their marketing efforts to reassure them that they are welcoming international tourists. It visited California, the state's tourism agency, and revised its overall forecast for visitor spending this month from $166 billion to $160 billion following the slower growth of international travelers and catastrophic wildfires in January.
“The good news is that international visitors continue to show strong affinity for Golden State thanks to the strong brands on California's global stage,” said Caroline Beteta, president of the agency, in a statement.
There was a similar message in New York. Julie Coker, president of New York City Tourism + Convention, said it is possible to address the costs of visiting the city and visit them on a budget, and marketing organizations will highlight those opportunities.
“This is a great opportunity to highlight other areas and parts of New York City outside of Manhattan, and it has a vibrant, surprising, award-winning culinary, arts and cultural experience,” she says, and she believes New York has previously faced obstacles and will be able to achieve its goal of recovering international investment by 2026 despite current challenges.
Miller, who is a real New York tour, is not sure. He said that if there is no appointment this summer, he must consider firing staff.
“The reality is that we are being hit hardest and we may not survive,” he said.
Christine Chung contributed a report.
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