Fox News Power Rankings: Voter Reach, Voter Efficiency, and a Little Housekeeping

Election night is two weeks away. As Vice President Harris and former President Trump race toward the finish line, this week's forecast looks at their advocacy efforts and the latest evidence that the gap in national and state polls is narrowing.

In addition, rankings will change in six highly competitive House districts.

Harris and Trump meet with voters on the ground

Last week's power rankings showed that the two parties' coalitions have changed significantly since 2020.

The biggest concern for Democrats is that Harris still has fewer black voters in her base than President Biden.

To resolve the issue, the campaign sent its most powerful surrogate, former President Barack Obama, to Arizona and Nevada, where Harris spent an hour with Charlamagne Tha God to discuss policy, race and religion. We talked about it.

Fox News Channel's interview with Vice President Kamala Harris, hosted by “Special Report” anchor Bret Baier, drew a whopping 7.1 million viewers, making it the most-watched interview of the 2024 election season. It became. (Fox News Channel)

The vice president also took on Fox News' Bret Bayer as part of her campaign's effort to portray the candidate as tough and down-to-earth. It was Harris' most high-profile interview to date, but it will take another week for its impact to show up in the polls.

Meanwhile, with fewer women in President Trump's coalition than in the last election, the former president participated in a town hall with Fox News' Harris Faulkner and an all-female audience.

Faulkner Focus, a town hall featuring former President Trump, drew 2.9 million viewers in its 11 a.m. Eastern time slot. (Fox News Channel)

Trump also continues to seek out young and working-class voters. His appearance at a local McDonald's in Pennsylvania created a convincing image and was designed to portray Trump as an energetic and likable candidate.

FOX News power rankings: Harris loses lead, new voters emerge

Right-wing voters worried about Trump could also make a difference on election night.

That's why Harris spent earlier in the week with former Republican Rep. Liz Cheney urging conservatives to vote on the Democratic ticket this year. This also explains why there are rumors that Nikki Haley will be joining President Trump's campaign.

Inefficient voting could keep Harris in the game

Polls show the domestic race is close…

Two national popular vote polls released last week showed an unusually close race. In Suffolk, Harris holds a one-point lead over Trump, 50% to 49%. The Fox News poll has Mr. Trump leading by 2 points, with the former president at 50% and Ms. Harris at 48%.

If this is the result, Trump should lose this election campaign.

In 2020, Biden won the national vote by a margin of 4.5 points (51% to 47%). That led to narrow victories in battleground states. For example, the president won Georgia by 0.2 percentage points, and his biggest victory in a battleground state was Michigan, which he won by 2.8 percentage points.

So a close national poll would likely give Trump a lead in the battleground. But statewide polls are also close.

…and a close battle in a competitive area.

A new poll shows Harris leading by 2 to 4 points in the close races of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, and Trump leading by 3 points in Arizona and North Carolina. (Washington Post/Shah).

The power rankings call all of these states toss-ups.

The same Fox poll that gave Trump a 2-point lead nationally last week showed Harris up 6 points among voters in battleground states (52% to 46%, with a 6.5-point subgroup margin of error).

Latest FOX News National Poll.

Trump's advantage is primarily due to the share that Harris received in counties where Biden won by 10 points or more in 2020 (64% to 35%), compared to the share Harris received in counties Biden won by 10 points or more (64% to 35%). ) had a large share.

Trump mystery makes election results even more uncertain

This result suggests that Mr. Trump may be accumulating “inefficient votes.” In other words, the former president is doing better nationally than he was four years ago, but his gains are concentrated in areas where he has already won, such as Florida and rural counties.

Harris may have lost some ground in safe Democratic states like New York, but she remains competitive in the battleground states that will decide the presidential election.

Other polls have asked the same question, but the most convincing evidence comes from the midterm elections.

Republican voting in midterm elections is inefficient.

Although Republicans received about 3 million more votes than Democrats in the national House vote (Mr. Cook), they won with an even balance of power with 222 seats to Democrats' 213.

In other words, Republicans amassed a lot of votes in areas where they didn't need them, and they amassed enough votes to win in battleground House races (an issue that has long plagued Democrats in national voting). .

The polls are all within the margin of error, and this is just one theory about the direction of the race. But even if Trump loses badly in Florida on election night or his support shrinks in Virginia, it may not mean the race is over.

Six House races change direction.

The House remains a crowded field, with 208 seats going to Republicans and 205 seats going to Democrats, with 22 districts that could go either way.

Fox News Power Rankings House Floor.

Today's forecast moves six races into new categories.

First, New York's 17th District, located in the Hudson Valley, is home to some of the most competitive races on the map. Incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Lawler has a strong brand of bipartisanship in his centrist district. Democratic challenger and former Rep. Mondaire Jones is trying to move in the same direction, but is still stuck over her past support for defunding the police and her feud with the Working Families Party ( Jones will not appear on the ballot under the party's name (though the party is now telling voters to support him anyway). This race goes from a toss-up to a lean R.

Congressional districts have moved in New York, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

New York's 1st Congressional District, which includes both the Hamptons and rural Long Island, remains a hotly contested race between Republican U.S. Rep. Nick Larota and Democratic former CNN anchor John Abron. But a majority of voters in the district supported Trump in 2020 and 2016, and Avlon faces questions about his reach in the district. The race will move from Lean R to Rikley R.

In the hotly contested Rust Belt states, competition is becoming even more intense in two electoral districts held by Trump-supporting Republicans. First, Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District went to Congressman Derrick Van Orden by a narrow margin in the midterm elections. The presence of sitting members of Congress at the Capitol during the Jan. 6 riot is a theme of opposition ads. This race goes from Unlikely R to Lean R.

Meanwhile, Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District has been held by Representative Scott Perry of the Freedom Caucus since 2013. Perry is the only sitting member of Congress whose cellphone was seized in an FBI investigation into efforts to illegally overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. It also became the theme of a TV advertisement. Shift from lean R to toss up.

Congressional districts have moved in Maryland, Nevada, and New York.

Nevada's 3rd District remains Republicans' best chance to flip a seat in the Silver State, but the highly competitive presidential race has so far not translated into successful down-ballots, especially in the Senate race. do not have. This district roughly borders Las Vegas and also includes Henderson. This is advantageous territory for Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in this Biden-dominated district. She will face Republican Drew Johnson. Go from Lean D to Likely D.

Finally, Maryland's 6th Congressional District, a sleeper race to watch in the Northeast, pits Democrat April McClain Delaney against Republican Neil Parrott. This should be safe territory for the left, but the party is investing here, even making it one of its frontline programs. Move from Solid D to Unlikely D.

Lies, damn lies, and statistics

As anxious voters count down to election night, the political class is trying to fill the void with data. Some numbers are more useful than others.

Harris has an edge in fundraising and ground game. His campaign has raised more than $1 billion this quarter, more than double what Mr. Trump raised last month, and Democrats are mounting a more aggressive vote-getting campaign. These are important benefits. A close race could push Harris over the line. Trump, on the other hand, won despite running deficits in both areas.

Voters are casting their votes.

Comparing early voting numbers to previous cycles is generally not helpful. Fewer Americans are expected to vote early, Democrats and Republicans are unlikely to be divided on how to vote, and the breakdown shows some voters' political party registration rather than how they vote.

Finally, in-house polls target the same voters as other polls, so they are unlikely to produce significantly different results. In that case, people should ask whether the poll is an outlier, or whether the campaign that paid for the poll has an incentive to characterize the race differently.

2 weeks left until election night

Two weeks left until election night.

Early voting is underway in every state, with more than 15 million voters currently voting.

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Check back next week for our final power ranking predictions.