Rearmament will likely be more difficult for Hamas. Hamas is running out of much ammunition, and there is no easy way to replenish its stockpiles, especially given that its signature outside supporters are severely weakened.
But if Israel decides to return to war, it could continue to weaken the group by removing new commanders and targeting the remnants of the government.
Under such a scenario, Israel could move toward occupying Gaza, which would “cut off Hamas but potentially turn on all the other peoples,” said Doha Graduate School of Public Policy professor. Tamer Calmut said.
Some former Israeli security officials argue that the deal will keep Hamas in a stable position regardless of whether Israel returns to the war.
“Hamas scored a lot of points with this deal,” said Michael Milshtein, a former military intelligence analyst specializing in Palestinian issues. “They wrote into the agreement two things they had always demanded: an end to the fighting and an Israeli withdrawal.”
And if Israel resumes the conflict, Milstein said, it will enter a “war of attrition with no light at the end of the tunnel.” “Hamas is ready to drag Israel back into the mud of Gaza.”
Still, if Hamas wants enough aid to flow in to rebuild the Gaza Strip, it will need to offer some compromises. Hamas leaders have previously said they are willing to relinquish civilian rule in Gaza, but not dismantle its military wing. Analysts say this dynamic will be similar to Hezbollah's role in Lebanon before Israel attacked Lebanon.
“I think everyone, including Hamas, understands that in order to solve the problems of the people, Hamas needs to move away from the front lines,” Karmut said. He added that a power-sharing agreement needs to be reached.
Hamas supporters acknowledge that the October 2023 attack caused great suffering to Palestinians, but express regret for the attack, which killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians. refuses to do so. They highlighted how Israel's subsequent bombing of Gaza revived global interest in the Palestinian cause and damaged Israel's reputation.
Before the war, Saudi Arabia, which was close to establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, proposed the establishment of a Palestinian state as a precondition for an agreement.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant are wanted by the International Criminal Court on suspicion of war crimes. And the nation has been accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice. Although Israel strongly denies both charges, its international reputation has never been more tarnished.
“Before the war, no one was tracking what was happening in Palestine,” said Fouad Kufash, an analyst close to Hamas based in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. “Everyone is paying attention now,” he added.
Hamas' chief negotiator Khalil al-Haya said in a speech on Wednesday that the October attack was a “military achievement” and would remain a “source of national pride.”
For many civilians, the future with both Israel and Hamas is bleak.
Akram Atallah, a Palestinian columnist from Gaza, said: “We are talking about a state that is prepared to commit absolute atrocities, and a state that is ready to provoke that state to commit atrocities.'' It's about people who are caught between groups.”
Patrick Kingsley and Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting to this article.
