Ukraine immediately thought it had signed a contract to suspend combat in the Black Sea. Russia said it would need to lift economic sanctions first. And the US has not addressed the issue of timing at all, and has only repeated President Trump's widespread demand that the killings stop.
The contradictory statement released this week after mid-level ceasefire negotiations in Saudi Arabia is said to be the latest indication of a chaotic process that the Kremlin appears to have the advantage by playing around with time.
The Trump administration is trying to secure a series of limited ceasefire contracts, claiming that a modest agreement will pave the way for a wider ceasefire and ultimately open a peace deal to end the conflict. But so far, these progressive deals have been a way for Russia to win concessions from Ukraine and goodwill from the White House who wants to be seen as a peacemaker.
On Tuesday, Moscow said it would only agree to the Black Sea ceasefire if the state's agricultural bank, Rosselhozbank and other restrictions were lifted. If Washington agreed to do the same to its European allies agreeing to these conditions and pressures, the proposed Black Sea deal would benefit Moscow more than Kiev, experts said.
Blacksea's negotiations followed another limited agreement, brokered by Washington. halting 30-day strikes against energy targets by Russia and Ukraine. Given the extensive damages that the Ukrainian strike has inflicted on the installation of oil and gas across Russia, the deal also benefited Moscow, with no clear enforcement mechanism. Both sides quickly accused each other of continuing such strikes.
And earlier this month, Russian President Vladimir V. Putin effectively rejected the proposal for an entire 30-day ceasefire mediated by Washington and Kiev. Putin set conditions, including recruiting Ukrainians, military training and freezing weapons imports.
“It's clear that the Russians are stuck and they're very good,” said Daniel Fried, a former US diplomat and fellow at Washington's Atlantic Council, who has negotiated with Russians in the past. “The Russians are pulling this out, loading the conditions and sending us out into the complute rabbit hole.”
Trump on Tuesday acknowledged Russia's uncriticed tactics. He thinks Moscow wants to see the end of the war, he said, “But they may be limping.”
He then recalled taking the same approach in past business negotiations when he didn't want to sign a contract but wanted to “stay in the game.”
For Russia, staying in consultation meant raising a series of demands, but it is unlikely that some of them will be met. Russia framed the proposed Black Sea deal as a way to revive the 2022 non-supporting contract that provides some control over commercial transport through the sea.
The transaction allowed Ukraine to export grain through the agreed transport corridor, but Russia inspected all commercial vessels to prevent them from carrying weapons. Experts say Russia has misused its provisions to stall Ukraine's ocean exports.
After the deal collapsed in 2023, Ukraine ousted the Russian Navy out of the western Black Sea, securing its own transport corridor. This operation was so successful that the export of seabone grains returned to near boundary levels, beyond the level reached during uncovered contracts.
Against this backdrop, experts say Kiev is not interested in accusing Moscow's demands. Fried noted that in order for the Black Sea trade to be considered balanced, Kiev must include clear benefits, including its commitment to stop attacks on Russians and Ukrainian agricultural export facilities to stop attacks on Odesa's southern port.
The White House did not expressly mention such commitment in Tuesday's statement. Tuesday only referred to the elimination of “using force” in the Black Sea.
Conditions set by the Kremlin on Tuesday introduced the possibility that the US would lift sanctions as a prerequisite for Russia's actions. Fried said there was no substantial concession on the Russian side that deserves such a step.
“The Russians managed to put this on the agenda, meaning they injected sanctions lift as part of the initial negotiation process,” Fried said. “Why is it our interest to do that? What are the mutual movements we are trying to get from the Russians?”
Trump has threatened Russia with consequences if he doesn't pursue peace, but his administration has not continued. Instead, he accepted and reiterated Putin's statement that he wanted to end the conflict and speak to him about the possibility of a new era of cooperation with Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodimia Zelensky said on Tuesday that Moscow's terms of dealing in the Black Sea are further evidence that the Kremlin is seeking more concessions while deceiving the US about its true intentions.
Putin shows little indication that he will retreat from his purpose of conquering Ukraine as a satellite state under the Russian thumb. He regularly says that Russian troops are on the front legs of the battlefield, and that a ceasefire benefits only for Kiev. However, he wants to continue the Trump administration's rapid reconciliation with Moscow, pointing to a joint economic project that Russia and the United States can pursue.
The terms Moscow has been set for the Black Sea Agreement are unlikely to meet soon. They included a request to reconnect the Russian state agricultural banks to an international payment system known as Swift. This requires cooperation from European countries separated from consultations.
Alexander Kolyandr, a senior fellow at the European Centre for Policy Analysis, said removing sanctions from banks would bring significant benefits to Moscow.
“They definitely want a big state-owned bank outside of sanctions, because the moment you're financially holding a kosher bank, you can do whatever you want,” he said. “They can clear the deal. They can move money between countries. They can pay for the import in dollars.
Even if Moscow, Washington and Kiev resolve differences in their statements regarding the Black Sea trade, the ceasefire discussed will not only ensrine the status quo, said Andrei Sizov, director of Sobekon, an agricultural market analytics firm.
Schizov pointed out that Ukraine has been exporting grain through the Black Sea since late 2023, and that Russia has exported both oil and grain, despite making Moscow's activities more expensive. He sees current lectures as a formalization of existing arrangements.
“It's not a step ahead,” he said. “In my view, progress towards a complete ceasefire is shown to be fairly limited, if any.”
The constant Mehu helped to report from Kiev, Ukraine.
