The Islamic State has lost thousands of fighters to death or imprisonment and experienced the collapse of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria. But the group's global influence, also known as ISIS, remains vast, in part because of its sophisticated media output and the people around the world who consume it.
On New Year's Day, a man carrying an Islamic State flag drove his car into a crowd in New Orleans, killing at least 14 people. Authorities said there was no evidence that the man, Shamsud Din Bahar Jabar, had active links with terrorist organizations. But the FBI said, “He was 100 percent inspired by ISIS.”
It is not yet clear what specific online content Mr. Jabbar viewed or how he became radicalized. Experts said the location of the flag on the truck was similar to that depicted in a media campaign by ISIS calling on its supporters to “run you over without mercy.” And authorities say he had posted several videos on his Facebook account pledging allegiance to ISIS before the attack.
From online videos to social media platforms and even a weekly Islamic State newsletter, the group, which wants to force all Muslims to adhere strictly to the faith's earliest teachings, has a very modern media strategy. There is.
“Terrorism is essentially communication,” said Hans-Jacob Schindler, a former U.N. diplomat and senior director of the Counter-Extremism Project, a think tank with offices in New York and Berlin. “This is not a war, because it's clear that ISIS can't defeat the West militarily, right? They've tried, but not necessarily with good results.”
terrorist newsletter
How did the Islamic State maintain its influence? For one thing, it transformed its movement into a global franchise that extended beyond the Middle East and expanded into Afghanistan, Somalia, Mali, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the caucuses, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, among others. By establishing active branches in Turkey and elsewhere.
But it is the Islamic State's sophisticated media operations that are the glue that holds the disparate chapters together, and that also serves to inspire “lone wolf” terrorists like Mr. Jabbar to carry out their own attacks. Experts say that although it is questionable whether the media business has a physical headquarters, it is highly centralized and controlled by the Media Directorate. Much of that work appears to come from affiliates in Africa, where attacks have been most active recently.
The group also publishes an online weekly newsletter called “Al-Naba” or “The News,” which contains details of the group's latest exploits and implicitly targets followers. encourages violent acts.
“Al-Naba's newsletter comes out every Thursday like clockwork. It's one of the best things this group can do,” said Cole, a scholar on Middle East Islamic extremism at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.・Mr. Bunzel said.
“They have editorials. They cover so-called different states. They cover the attacks of the week. They tally up the number of attacks and casualties they claim. And that's the main way they stay connected to their global support base,” he said.
The latest edition of the newsletter, published on January 2, did not mention the New Orleans attack, and Islamic State has not claimed responsibility.
Al-Naba was initially exposed through the messaging app Telegram and other platforms, and various channels were shut down, said Aaron Zelin, a Washington Institute fellow who has tracked Islamist groups' activities and propaganda for more than 15 years. He says he has always adapted as he has changed.
The group's supporters also spread messages on Twitter, Facebook pages and other social media platforms, researchers said. If your user profile is blocked, you can often simply create a new one. Zelin said the Islamic State uses decentralized internet tools that are difficult to shut down and moves some of its messages to the dark web.
Terrorism analysts say a lack of enforcement efforts by some companies and governments operating the platforms has made it easier for extremists to connect with potential supporters on social media. are.
In light of the New Orleans attack, Schindler said both political parties should ask: “Why isn't this massive industry that makes so much money not helping our security services prevent attacks like this?” Will we not receive information that there are terrorists here, that there is a radicalization process going on? ”
Terrorism experts say Islamic State's mastery of media and messaging is key to its success. Al Qaeda, which broke away from the Islamic State in 2013, has laid the groundwork, publishing both online and print magazines and producing videos as well as social media.
“Kill me wherever you find me.”
In January 2024, the extremist group revived its campaign against its followers around the world. He quoted a verse from the Quran: “Kill him wherever you find him.”
The idea, first floated in 2015, was to encourage would-be believers to carry out acts of jihad at home rather than traveling to Iraq or Syria. With the collapse of the Caliphate, the idea became even more important.
At a time when the Islamic State held sway in Syria and then Iraq (2013-2017) and was eager to gain supporters in the West, the group committed gruesome acts such as the beheading of photojournalist James Wright Foley. He was notorious for posting depictions of violence.
Experts now say the increasingly difficult challenge is that social media platforms are pushing Islamic State's messages as algorithms seeking to boost engagement pull some users deeper and deeper into an extremist worldview. He says that he is doing much of the work to spread the word.
“Terrorist groups no longer have to go to great lengths to radicalize people; algorithms do it for them,” Schindler said. “The point of the algorithm is to keep users on the platform and give them what they like. And if it's Islamic extremism or if they're in the process of radicalization, their worldview changes.”
In Syria, the Islamic State took advantage of a long civil war to capture large swaths of territory, but ultimately lost the territory to U.S.-backed fighters, but the Islamic State began to make a comeback and accelerated its attacks. There is. This trend is likely to continue, as President Bashar al-Assad's government was suddenly overthrown in December by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, another extremist group formerly affiliated with Islamic State and al-Qaeda. There is.
The situation remains fluid, but some analysts are concerned that Islamic State could rise back amidst the chaos. The group's newsletter disparages Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a “jihadist turned politician” but does not call for attacks on them.
Meanwhile, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups have taken over the role of guarding Islamic State prisoners in eastern Syria, setting up camps housing some 40,000 Islamic State fighters and their families. They argue that it should be managed. The Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces is supported by the United States. Many terrorism experts question how Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, once linked to the Islamic State group but then bitterly separated, will carry out its mission to quell the group.
Islamic State recently resumed its “Break the Wall” media campaign encouraging imprisoned fighters to break out of prisons in eastern Syria and free their families.
If it succeeds, it would be a “disaster,” Sellin said.
