Israel and Hamas have agreed to an initial six-week cease-fire that could also postpone the most intractable conflict to an ambiguous second phase. It is unclear whether the two sides will reach an agreement.
Under the agreement, 16 days after the initial ceasefire, Israeli and Hamas officials commit to an end to the war, the release of any remaining living hostages from Gaza, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. It is expected that the next stage of negotiations will begin.
Israeli leaders have long insisted that the war will not end until Hamas is destroyed. That couldn't be further from reality on Sunday, when several Hamas militants fanned out across parts of the Gaza Strip in pickup trucks, waving rifles, in a show of authority to Palestinians and Israelis alike. It looked like it was.
Both Israel and Hamas have preserved some of their bargaining chips. At the end of the 42-day ceasefire, Hamas will still have about two-thirds of the 98 hostages, including dozens who are believed to have died. And Israel will continue to occupy parts of the Gaza Strip and hold key prisoners, including militant leader and iconic Palestinian politician Marwan Barghouti.
However, as part of the talks, the Israeli government will likely need to decide whether it is willing to choose one of its war objectives, the return of the hostages, over the destruction of Hamas. And the hostage selection could threaten Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's grip on power in Israel.
Meanwhile, retired Israeli Brigadier General Shlomo Blom said both sides had agreed to postpone a definitive agreement on the end of the war and the future of Gaza, and he hoped a 42-day ceasefire would work in their favor. he said. In particular, Hamas said it “hopes that a new dynamic will prevent Israel from returning to hostilities.”
The decision to accept a temporary ceasefire has created deep rifts within Prime Minister Netanyahu's hard-line coalition. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir resigned from his cabinet on Sunday in protest and withdrew his Jewish Power party from the coalition.
Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist party has also threatened to dissolve the coalition if Prime Minister Netanyahu does not resume fighting after a 42-day ceasefire ends. If Mr. Smotrich's party also leaves, Mr. Netanyahu's government will have less than half of the seats in Israel's Knesset, potentially leading to its collapse and forcing new elections.
On Saturday night, Prime Minister Netanyahu stressed that the ceasefire is temporary for now. He asserted that Israel has the right to return to war if “phase two negotiations are ineffective,” adding that President-elect Donald J. Trump supports Israel's decision.
“We reserve the right to return to the war with the support of the United States if necessary,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised address.
The fragility of the ceasefire was highlighted Sunday morning when Hamas did not immediately hand over to Israel a list of hostages to be released, delaying it for nearly three hours. Analysts expect the deal will likely see the two sides join forces to conduct a number of similar tests in the coming weeks.
Families of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza have called on the Israeli government to implement all steps of the agreement and bring the remaining prisoners home. Noah Algamani, a freed hostage whose boyfriend, Abinatan Orr, remains in captivity, said he was heartbroken that he would not be released this round.
“The progress made in recent days is a very important step, but the agreement must be fully completed at all stages,” Al-Ghamani said in a speech in Miami on Thursday.
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