Proof?
Within a 24-hour period, the “buying America” trade returned, causing the possibility of a US recession to collapse. Pressure on the Fed also eased pressure to cut interest rates despite the uncertainty surrounding Tuesday's consumer price index report.
As a result, Jay Powell became one of the biggest beneficiaries of the US-China tariff ceasefire on Monday. The Fed chief may feel that Wall Street has been proven by steadily retaining borrowing costs despite calling him a “fool” for President Trump's refusal to cut.
The market has led to the Fed's thinking. Futures traders have seen roughly two cuts this year and this year. This means that market watchers were widely questioning, consistent with the central bank's March forecast, from the five on April 7th. Some economists see even fewer, particularly in signs of a revival of inflation.
Many investors worry that Trump's tariffs on Chinese imports could be stuck, but a suspension signal that such obligations won't be crippled, and that the Fed won't be forced to make efforts to strengthen the economy.
At the US-Saudi investment conference held in Riyadh on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent said there is momentum to build more trade deals, including Indonesia, South Korea and Taiwan. “At the end of the day, we will reach a satisfactory conclusion,” he said, adding that it may take some time to reach an agreement with the European Union.
However, businesses are not taking opportunities. They began desperately rushing to orders from China to exploit temporary tariff relief. “90 days are not a long runway for people in our business,” Jean Seroca, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told The Times.
Will panic purchases be displayed in Tuesday's CPI data? Some economists hope that consumers will see the first signs of being squeezed by Trump's trade war.
Thursday's retail sales report could see evidence of this. Goldman Sachs economist David Merrill wrote in a research note Monday that he hopes for “a boost from consumer front-loading purchases ahead of tariffs.”
It points to Powell and the federal government sticking to their guns. It could make Trump angry again. However, such a move coincides with an increasing consensus that central banks have no risk, and will continue to wait until the fallout in the trade war becomes more clear.
Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, wrote in a research note that there were no cuts this year. He added that the Fed “doesn't think there's a need to cut interest rates as there's less fear of a recession this year and fiscal policies are set to support growth in 2026.”
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This is what's going on
The UnitedHealth Group name new CEO said the giant health insurance company on Tuesday that its chairman and former chief Stephen Hemsley will replace Andrew Witty. The company also said it has suspended its financial outlook for 2025. UnitedHealth shares fell 10% in pre-market trading.
Newark Airport experiences more delays amid signs of tension. Flights to Newar Liberty International were delayed up to seven hours on Monday as the airport suffered a shortage of staff. (Three air traffic controllers were scheduled to work last night, much less than the target of the 14 controllers for most of those hours.) United's CEO (Newark's biggest) told customers that flights there were “absolutely safe.”
Drug stocks rise as executive orders prove to be limited. President Trump had promised that “drug prices will fall,” but the order signed on Monday encouraged pharmaceutical companies to voluntarily lower prices, preventing them from explicitly linking costs in the US with other countries' costs. Merck shares rose 5.9% on Monday, while Pfizer shares rose 3.6% And Eli Lily's people rose 2.9%.
The Trump administration may sell chips to Emirati AI companies. Authorities are considering selling hundreds of thousands of artificial intelligence processors to the G42. This is what the US government had previously scrutinized its relationship with China, the Times reports. As Trump is touring Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, it is one of several deals the White House is negotiating with Middle Eastern countries, hoping to take away more than $1 trillion in business agreements.
Hollywood is reporting on Trump for tax credits to bring back US filmmaking. The film association and the group, which includes the main writers and actors guild, sought new tax incentives to convince production companies to create more films and TV shows in the United States. This follows Trump's (as it is not minimized) threat to impose tariffs on films made abroad in panic in Hollywood.
How Crypto investors bend Trump's ears
Criticism has hardly discouraged President Trump and his family from seeking benefits from the code. Latest example: The Bitcoin mining business, backed by one of the president's sons, Eric Trump, is set to be made public through a merger with a competitor.
But that – and Trump's intention to have dinner for his biggest holder of Memecoin shows even more how Trump has turned to code to strengthen their fate.
Example A: American Bitcoin said Monday it plans to take over the Nasdaq list in conjunction with the public Griffon Digital Mining. This is a small deal, along with Griffon's market value, before the approximately $36 million deal is announced. Existing US Bitcoin shareholders are expected to own approximately 98% of the company.
American Bitcoin, published, offers a way for people to invest in Trump's family business. Consider that Gryphon's shares surged on the news on Monday, giving it a market value of $98.5 million and over 259 million shares are trading. (The average Griffon trading volume is much lower than that, and last week it was trading for less than a dollar.)
Example B: $ Trump. The president ended the auction on Monday. His Memecoin Top 220 owners have finished winning a seat for next week's dinner. A competition where crypto investors from all over the world competed for participation. The top holder was identified as the “Sun,” according to the contest website. He sued for fraud in 2023.
Buying $ Trump Coin will help you in several ways. The insanity of investment has boosted the value of the Trump family's paper. And Trump and his business partners will collect fees from all transactions involving Memocoin, up to a $1.3 million adjustment, according to the Times.
Critics point to potential conflicts of interest, including the possibility of attempting to influence Trump. Several Trump buyers have explicitly said they want to lobby Trump directly. The CEO of the shipping logistics company announced last month that it would buy $20 million worth of tokens to lower tariffs on Mexican goods for the president. (The company later said it had “no plans now” to have a representative for dinner.)
Buying Memecoin or stocks with American Bitcoin also provides the final implementation of US ethics law. Non-citizens cannot contribute to political campaigns, but they can invest in those assets.
“It looks very corrupt,” Sen. Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, told The Times. Sen. John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, previously told the Times he would use his position to benefit from digital currency to support the ban on “all civil servants.”
It's not just the area where critics are worried. Trump angrily brushed off concerns about accepting a Boeing 747 from Qatar on Monday.
Budget standoffs
Tuesday will be a big deal for Republican lawmakers. He is set to begin debating a vast tax bill aimed at meeting key parts of President Trump's tax campaign.
Congressional Republicans are aiming big. But they need to find massive savings in the federal budget to offset generous tax cuts.
What is the bill?
The capital gains tax could be hit by schools like Harvard and Yale, and schools that are already facing funding cuts following the attack on higher education at the White House.
Medicaid target reduction. Strengthier citizenship checks and work requirements for some recipients, and more stringent screenings for healthcare providers. (Even so, Republicans fear a political blow.)
Gradual electric vehicle tax credits including the popular $7,500 commercial vehicle credit. Many of these were first introduced under the Biden administration. Rebates and tax credits have been a key driver of EV sales in recent years, as the sector has been hit by Trump's tariffs.
Homeowners and wage earners can get some relief. Some tips and some of your overtime pay are spared from the IRS. This is a promise of the prominent Trump campaign. Also, taxpayers can subtract state and local tax tabs up to $30,000 from the current $10,000, but extending the deduction, often known as salt, has long been a tough question within the parties as it would benefit the rich homeowners of the Blue State.
The tax on the wealthiest Americans Trump had sought last week is currently not included in the package.
What's next? Several major House committees will discuss some of the bill before sending them to the full room for votes. They are:
However, some Republican lawmakers have already challenged some of the plans, making it difficult for party leaders to pass the package in the face of what would be expected to be unified democratic opposition.
Speed is read
transaction
Perplexity, an AI-powered search engine, is said to be in talks to raise new funds at a $14 billion valuation. (WSJ)
The efforts to raise funds for Softbank's huge Stargate AI Data Center project are reportedly stagnant amidst economic uncertainty as he was surprised by President Trump's tariff policies. (Bloomberg)
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