Which of these is not like the others? Economy. Borders. Abortion. Foreign policy.
The first three are the issues many voters consistently tell pollsters are the most important topics for them in 2024. What about foreign policy? It's tiny compared to the others. In fact, a recent Fox poll found that only 3% of registered voters surveyed in Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona said foreign policy decisions were the most important topic. When Fox asked the question nationally, foreign policy rose to just 4%.
So why should we care about foreign policy in a contest like Harris vs. Trump? The importance of foreign policy as a deciding factor in presidential elections waxes and wanes. The Vietnam War frayed the national consciousness in the late 1960s. It held back Lyndon Johnson from reelection in 1968. The Iran hostage crisis certainly didn't help Carter's stumble in 1980. Reagan is credited with boosting America's image on the world stage. Staring down the Soviets helped him win handily in 1984.
Former President George H. W. Bush does not seem to have benefited from the Gulf War in 1991 or the collapse of the Eastern Bloc in the late 1980s and early 1990s. This is ironic. The president had an astounding 91% approval rating immediately after the Gulf War, but was defeated by former President Clinton less than two years later. In 2001, the events of 9/11 changed the fate of former President George W. Bush. He was re-elected in 2004, but lost support that fall due to the casualties of the Iraq War.
Vice President Kamala Harris is scheduled to take office on July 30, 2024, while former President Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, is scheduled to take office on August 3. (AP Photo)
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So should foreign policy be the focus of attention in 2024? It's tough, but in close races, any outcome could be decisive, especially in battleground states where the race is statistically close.
“The pocketbook issue is always going to be the most important issue for most people,” said Rep. Larry Buckson (R-Ind.). But Buckson also offered a warning.
“(Foreign policy) potentially falls into the realm of national security in the election issues because the vice president was clearly involved in the development of this decision,” the Indiana Republican said.
That's exactly what Republicans want to emphasize as Congress reconvenes: Biden is out, Harris is the Democratic nominee, and they want to tell a story about the vice presidency and foreign policy.
The Middle East war. The execution of Israeli hostages. The controversy over President Trump's memorial to service members killed in Afghanistan three years ago. In a strange way, the incidents and questions surrounding the behavior of President Trump and his team at Arlington National Cemetery may have caused a refocusing of why they were there in the first place: the failure to withdraw from Afghanistan on the President and Vice President's watch.
The mother of one of the 13 US soldiers killed in the Abbey Gate attack at Kabul airport has slammed the regime.
“We've been treated so disrespectfully for the last three years,” Kelly Barnett, a Gold Star mother who lost her son, Taylor Huber, in the terrorist attack, told Fox. “We've never had a response from them. We've never had an 'I'm sorry.'”
Republicans see this as a connection to Harris.
“I think the vice president deserves criticism because he was heavily involved in the (Afghanistan withdrawal) discussions,” Bukson said.
Harris made similar comments in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash in 2021 after her withdrawal.
“(President Biden) just made a really big decision: Afghanistan,” Bash said. “Were you the last person in the room?”
President Biden holds hands with Vice President Kamala Harris during a ceremony honoring the Golden State Warriors on January 17, 2023 in Washington, DC. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)
“Yes,” Harris replied.
“So, are you feeling okay?” Bash retorted.
“I think so,” Harris replied.
Rep. Ro Khanna, D-Calif., noted on NBC that former President Trump “never got around to withdrawing” troops from Afghanistan despite his desire to do so.
“I commend President Biden and Vice President Harris for finally ending this war after 20 years,” Khanna said.
The California Democrat acknowledged that the administration failed to withdraw. But Khan believes Harris and the president “deserve credit” for actually pulling the U.S. out of a long-running conflict. Moreover, some Republicans point to the Israel-Hamas war as a flashpoint for the administration.
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“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have tried to sabotage Israel on every front,” Rep. Mike Lawler, D-New York, said on Fox News.
Speaking on Fox Business, Texas Republican Rep. Pat Fallon argued that the only “two-state solution” that Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, care about is winning “Pennsylvania and Michigan.”
But when it comes to the Middle East, the administration insists it is clear who is to blame, even as a Middle East crisis unfolds on its watch.
“Hamas is responsible for their deaths, and as the president said, most of its leaders should pay for their crimes,” White House national security spokesman John Kirby said.
As Congress reconvenes, campaigning will move from battleground states like Nevada and North Carolina to Capitol Hill, where Republicans are expected to craft a foreign policy narrative for the Biden administration and entrust it to Harris.
The House is expected to vote on several bills related to China in the coming days, and possibly some related to Israel and the Middle East war. The House Foreign Affairs Committee is expected to release a detailed report on the Afghanistan withdrawal soon. The committee has also issued a subpoena for Secretary of State Antony Blinken to testify about the withdrawal on September 19.
President Biden spoke to reporters outside St. Edmonds Roman Catholic Church in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, after attending mass on Aug. 31, 2024. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Senator)
The State Department has maintained that Blinken was unavailable at the time. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller has argued that the subpoena was “unnecessary” and that Blinken has cooperated with the committee in good faith. But Foreign Relations Committee spokeswoman Leslie Shedd said Blinken had known since late May that the committee wanted him to testify.
“The Speaker invited the Secretary of State to attend any session date in September, but the Secretary refused, vaguely suggesting November or December instead, by which time it would be too late for Congress to take legislative action to resolve the issues that led to the Department of State's withdrawal,” Shedd said.
Either way, the next few days will likely be filled with talk about what went wrong in Afghanistan three years ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana, is scheduled to present the Congressional Gold Medals to the families of 13 service members killed in Afghanistan in a ceremony on Tuesday.
George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, and Jeb Bush pose for a photo together. (Getty Images)
So will the foreign policy discussion stick with Harris? It's unclear. But you'll notice that Republicans have recently started bringing up the “Biden-Harris Administration,” a concerted effort to shift the conversation away from Biden and Velcro issues and toward the vice presidency once Harris is the nominee.
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But will foreign policy bring about change? Possibly. But we won't know until the votes are counted. As mentioned earlier, George W. Bush was re-elected in 2004, defeating former Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts. But Bush's campaign on the Iraq War came with “micro” costs in certain regions and constituencies.
And that's why foreign policy may be important in 2024 in a closely contested election.
