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The ups and downs, highs and lows, ups and downs that have characterized this unpredictable and chaotic campaign season seem to have stabilized. With four weeks until Election Day, reliable polling shows the 2024 presidential race is tied nationally, with seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — tied by one tick. It's also a close battle. According to Real Clear Politics (RCP) averages, neither candidate leads by more than 1 point in these battleground states. In 6 out of 7 cases, the difference is less than 1 point or an exact tie.
Some internal polls show that former President Trump has increased his approval ratings in Wisconsin and must-win Pennsylvania, a 2016 “reach state” that remains favorable to decide this year's presidential election. It has been shown that
President Trump has experienced the best polling of any of his three Republican nominations. Nationally, Harris is up just 2.0%, according to the latest RCP average. This is in sharp contrast to 2020, when Joe Biden led by 10%, and 2016, when Hillary Clinton led by 5.8%. Trump could be headed for a “narrow landslide.”
RealClearPolitics (Live Opinion, News, Analysis, Video, Polls) is a graph showing national and battleground state polling averages on this day in history, comparing polls from 2016, 2020, and 2024. will be posted every day. Sure, this shows that policy-oriented polling by news outlets and academic institutions is flawed, but it also exposes Harris' vulnerability to Biden and Clinton at the same stage. There is.
Battleground Democratic Party warns traditional voting bloc will 'split' in 2024
In my 35 years as a pollster, I've taught people to look beyond the horse racing numbers, what drives voter opinion, and what the true 5% of undecided people look at to decide on a candidate. , encouraged us to consider the basics of what we want to read and listen to. Let's dig into some of them.
First, look at the question set. Harris is relying on abortion to stay in the White House. Abortion motivates people to vote and increases turnout. Most pro-abortion voters (pro-life, pro-choice, or somewhere in between) are integrated into the existing electorate. In a recent CNN poll, 11% of likely voters said abortion was a top issue. According to this week's NYT/Siena poll, only 3% of undecided voters say abortion is the most important issue this election cycle.
In the same CNN national poll, 41% of likely voters said the economy was the most important issue, followed by protecting democracy (21%) and immigration (12%). Voters likely trust Trump more than Harris on the economy (50% vs. 39%), immigration (49% vs. 35%) and foreign policy (47% vs. 40%). Even among those who feel President Trump's policies are “too extreme” (yes, CNN asked that question), 15% have more confidence in President Trump on the economy and immigration. This is a great example of what we have seen. We agree with what makes us angry, but we vote according to what affects us.
Harris' battle with Michigan's working-class voters paves the way for Republican Trump
Harris' problems with being less clear on issues but more clearly defined on transparency were highlighted in a recent Fox News national poll. Only 43% of voters said Harris says what they believe. Another 55% think she will say whatever it takes to win. By contrast, a majority (51%) say the ubiquitous and talkative Trump speaks what he believes.
Second, Ms. Harris continues to trail in core constituencies that the Democratic presidential campaign must hold in order to win. Although Harris won over reluctant Democratic voters angry with Biden, she continues to receive less than Biden's actual vote share on Election Day 2020. She was unable to gain a foothold in either the Obama coalition in 2008 or the Biden (Harris) coalition in 2020. ”
The main demographic that Harris outperforms is white college graduates, and as of October 2020, she has a 9 percentage point lead over Biden, which is 16 points higher than Biden's lead on final election day. . Otherwise, Harris' honeymoon will be over and her debate performance will take a backseat as she struggles to gain the skepticism of the voters she needs to win.
●Harris lost 36% of working-class voters. Biden lost by 26%.
●Harris increased by 64% among black voters. Biden won with 81%.
●Biden won with Hispanics by 23 points in 2020, but current opinion polls show that Hispanics are shifting to support Trump, but Harris' lead has gone from a few points to 14 points) .
●Harris has a 17-point lead among young voters (18-29 years old), but Democrats won this demographic by more than 20 points in the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections. . (She also only has a +12 lead among voters under 34, but Biden won by twice that in 2020, at 24 points.)
●Harris is bleeding men, losing to Trump by 14 points, wider than Biden's 6 percentage point lead in 2020, creating a double gender gap.
Importantly, rank-and-file union members are cool about Harris and timid about supporting Trump. The Teamsters, “America's largest and most diverse union” with 1.3 million members, declined to endorse a presidential candidate for the first time since 1996. The slap in the face to Harris followed an internal poll that found 60% of union members intend to vote for Trump. 34% for Harris.
Kamala Harris hits back at not getting support from Teamsters: 'What were their reasons?'
As a result, Mr. Trump was able to expand his coalition with more Hispanic, black, union household, male, working-class, non-college-educated, and younger voters. If Trump maintains his rise among these key groups and continues to outperform Republicans by historical standards, the 45th president will become the 47th president.
Third, the political environment and underlying fundamentals are more favorable to Trump and the Republican Party, according to Gallup.
●Americans are dissatisfied with the current state of the country; only 22% are satisfied with the current state of affairs in the United States.
●They view the economy negatively with the inauguration of the Democratic Party of Japan administration. 48% think the current economic situation is “bad,” while only 22% think it's “excellent” or “good.”
●46% think Republicans can do a better job of addressing the most important issues facing our country, compared to 41% who think Democrats can do the same.
●Republicans also have an advantage in party identification and preferences among American adults. 48% are Republicans/Lean Republicans and 45% are Democrats/Lean Democrats.
Additionally, a CNN national poll found that 51% of Americans believe Trump's presidency was a success, while 61% think the Biden-Harris presidency was a failure.
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Despite all the talk of diversity, expansion, and positive page-turning, Americans still feel that Harris and her party are outdated and hardened. Biden has been hanging around the edges, asserting in recent press conferences that Harris has been No. 2 all along, even as inflation explodes, borders disappear and wars break out around the world.
Fourth, interests in the unsexy parts of politics are emboldening the Republican Party and Trump. The Trump campaign, the RNC, and their allies have wisely invested heavily in these efforts, strengthening election integrity measures and ground campaigns and polling to target elusive but undecided voters. We have developed an acquisition strategy. Even President Trump has changed his tune about early voting this cycle, urging voters, including viewers of my show, Fox Nation's “Deal with Kellyanne,” to plan and do the most, including early voting. We're telling people to vote how and when they're comfortable. I said I might do it in Florida this month.
Republicans also have an advantage of hundreds of thousands of votes compared to the 2020 election. For example, as of September 2020, there were approximately 685,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania, and 391,000 more registered Democrats in North Carolina. By comparison, as of September 2024, Pennsylvania has 343,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, and North Carolina has only 126,000 more registered Democrats.
Meanwhile, Trump and his dynamic running mate, J.D. Vance, have been touring battleground states as they have been in recent weeks and will now fly daily, according to reports. This was the key to victory in the 2016 election. This is the smartest and most strategic way to offer solutions, be specific, show joy in the work, challenge political opponents on her background and basis for candidacy, and keep Trump front and center. (“I’m not Biden, I’m Biden, not Trump” feels outdated). If he's in your city, he's in your consciousness – watch the local news in Butler, Pennsylvania this weekend.
In a culturally divided and politically divided country, the 2024 presidential election was decided by a small number of votes across multiple states from more than 155 million voters in 2020 alone. This could reflect the close competition between 2016 and 2020.
This ultimately comes down to technical and tactical trench warfare operations, a battle over who is deemed more capable and more prepared, responsive, and considerate in the face of natural disasters. I might. This helps engage (and not just enrage) voters who see themselves as binary in governance and vision.
Polls may suggest the race will be a “deuce,” but Trump currently has the advantage. He and his running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, have vowed to continue on the road every day bombing key states while tapping into traditional Democratic demographics.
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Vice President Kamala Harris is largely invisible, pretending that she is not the incumbent with all the problems plaguing the country, and speaking out against her in public and outside of a limited friendly media environment. It has been sealed by people who were afraid of letting it happen.
Trump is racing against time. Harris is running out of it. She has more money, but he has something money can't buy: momentum.
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