Michigan's Senate race has emerged as a much bigger chance for Republican victory than initially thought, after former Rep. Mike Rogers recently tied with his Democratic opponent among key groups, according to a new poll.
Michigan Republican strategist Jason Cabell Law didn't initially expect the kind of Republican support Rogers is now seeing in the state, given the state's recent history of electing mostly Democratic senators.
Republican activists agree that Michigan's election results were a pleasant surprise.
“Michigan looks a little more competitive than Ohio,” a senior Republican strategist told Fox News Digital, noting that races in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio have traditionally been seen as Republicans' best chances this term.
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The Michigan Senate race between Elisa Slotkin and Mike Rogers is turning out to be more competitive than initially expected. (Associated Press)
“From what I've seen, Michigan is very competitive,” he explained.
The seat is currently held by outgoing Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Democrat of Michigan.
In the latest Michigan poll commissioned by AARP, Rogers is tied with Rep. Elisa Slotkin (D-Mich.) 46% to 46% among voters over 50. Among all voters, Slotkin has a slight lead, 47% to 44%, but the race remains close.
Bob Ward, a partner at the nonpartisan polling team Fabrizio Ward, said the Senate race is “definitely a battleground.”
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Rogers has the endorsement of former President Trump. (Reuters/Gina Moon)
Another New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in early August gave Ms. Slotkin just a one-point lead over Mr. Rogers among registered voters, 42% to 41%.
Rogers' race has been one of the closest so far, and insiders point to several reasons why.
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Slotkin currently serves as a member of the House of Representatives. (Bill Priano/Getty Images)
Cabell Roe pointed to the Michigan election as evidence that the quality of the candidate matters in winning elections. He said Rogers, a former congressman and chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, is a better candidate than other Republicans running in competitive Senate races around the country.
He also pointed to the fact that Rogers, unlike many other Republicans, is not running against an incumbent, meaning Slotkin faces many of the same challenges in the Senate race as Rogers.
Cabell Law said one aspect that may be overlooked in considering Michigan's competitiveness is its relatively large Muslim voter base and their dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris administration's actions in the Gaza war between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas.
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Cabel Law said he doesn't expect disgruntled Muslim voters to switch to the Republican Party, but they may choose not to vote at all, which would hurt Democrats.
Last month, the nonpartisan political forecasting site Cook Political Report changed the Michigan Senate race from “Democrat-leaning” to “close” to reflect the competitiveness of the race, which also includes Senate races in Montana and Ohio.
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