As he prepares to go to Washington this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke about building on the warm relationship he shared with President Trump in his first term in the White House.
But Trump can become a whimsical friend. So when Modi meets him on Thursday, he is expected to endure offerings designed to ease new points of friction and maintain growing US-India relations.
One of the main focuses is trade. Indian officials say domestic companies are in talks to increase US energy supply, particularly liquefied natural gas purchases. The two leaders are also expected to discuss growing spending on US defense equipment and announce new deals.
Additionally, Modi could point to recent tariff cuts on high-end American motorcycles, namely Harley-Davidson, which have lower obligations for goods such as bourbon and pecans, mainly produced in Republican states. .
These moves, largely symbolic in some cases, aim to frustrate Trump's frustration with the US trade deficit with India and the high import obligations that make India a difficult market.
Modi has already offered concessions on illegal immigration, another source of great tension. India is the largest group of illegal immigrants to the United States outside of Latin America. The Indian government has announced that it will work with Trump's deportation drive, even if it caused Modi's political headache last week.
Just a few days before Modi went to Washington, 100 shackled and handcuffed Indians arrived on a US military plane, and the government bounced the episode and tried to contain domestic repulsion.
India is keenly aware that trade and immigration issues are potential dual whammy in the universe of Trump's preconceived notions.
So far, Trump had threatened his close allies with punitive tariffs on these issues, but India has managed to leave his cross. If Trump's Hurricane Force can walk the tightrope of returning to power, India believes it is.
The two countries, the world's largest democracies, are more closely aligned economically and geopolitical, as they see a common threat in China, increasingly assertive.
Modi is the fourth world leader to meet Trump since when the Japanese prime minister visited the White House and spoke with Israeli and Jordanian leaders over war in the Middle East, taking office about three weeks ago. It will become. .
Trump and Modi share a lot in common. Both are powerful leaders who hold largely a view on foreign policy deals, and have a populist sense of what works at the base.
Despite Modi showing his willingness to go with Trump's muscle flexion, he is working to get what India needs from the relationship. This is especially true of Trump's push to rescind legal action during the Biden era.
India also hopes to move on from US legal action related to accusations of Indian government conspiracy to assassinate American citizens in the US soil.
Even during the Biden administration, authorities struggled to deal with assassinations primarily personally. This is a sign of how important the relationship between trade and defense has become.
The relationship now enjoys bipartisan support in Washington among lawmakers in Trump's inner circle, and believes India is important in sharing the burden of containing China.
In addition to the “very close ties” between Trump and Modi, India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Mithri has listed several areas of “convergence of interest” between the two countries.
Misri pointed to the growing technology-trade links and joint efforts on counter-terrorism and security in the Indo-Pacific region. He also highlighted the increasingly influential Indian diaspora in the United States and the numerous Indian students studying there.
The key alignment area that helps both leaders claim victory is defence cooperation, particularly weapons spending.
According to the Stockholm Peace Institute, India is the world's largest importer of military arms, accounting for nearly 10% of the world's total.
For decades, cheap and reliable Russian equipment constituted a major part of India's defence purchases. American equipment was expensive and out of reach due to years of US suspicion of India's relations with Russia.
US defense sales to India are currently approaching $25 billion a year from almost nothing in 2008. India is expected to spend more than $200 billion in modernizing its military over the next decade. It's just growing.
“The president emphasized the importance of India increasing the procurement of American-made security equipment,” the White House said in a statement when Modi spoke to Trump on the phone shortly after taking office last month.
However, India is trying to move simple purchases of US equipment into the past, which means that the transaction creates much needed employment and industrial capabilities at home.
Ashok Malik, India Chairman of Asia Group and former foreign policy advisor to Modi government, said:
Some of the biggest deals in recent years have led India to develop and produce equipment. In 2023, General Electric announced that it would jointly produce jet engines in India. In the final weeks, the Biden administration also announced that India would become the “first global producer” of striker combat vehicles.
The specific steps in these deals, as well as the final decision on other purchases, including patrols and reconnaissance aircraft, could be one of Modi's announcements following his meeting with Trump.
“All options are being discussed,” India's defence production chief Sanjeev Kumar said ahead of the trip. “We certainly want to promote deals with the US.”
Alex Travelli contributed the report.
