Trump's factor shapes global politics by one election at a time. It's not necessarily about the president's preferences.
With key votes in Canada and Australia over the past two weeks, the centreists saw their fate resurrected, and the parties borrowed from the Maga Playbook have been lost.
Although President Trump has been in power for just three months, his policies, including imposing tariffs and overturning alliances, have already spread to political battles across the world.
It's too early to say that anti-Trump forces are rising globally, but it's clear that Trump is somewhere in his heart when voters make decisions.
Political cousins
Canada and Australia share many similarities. The political system, the main mining, King Charles' sovereignty. Now they also share an astonishing political story.
In both countries, before Trump took office, the ruling party on the centre left seemed inferior in shape and poised to lose power. The Conservatives are at the forefront of the poll, whose leaders flirted with Trump's politics both in style and essentially.
Within weeks of Trump's return to power, political scenarios in Canada and Australia were reversed in the same way. The incumbents on the center left surged before the conservative opposition and won. And conservative leaders from both countries have lost their seats not only in elections but also in parliament.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has campaigned explicitly with an anti-Trump message, putting the threat of the US president at the heart of his campaign. That wasn't the case with Australian leader Anthony Albanese. However, both men got anti-Trump bumps.
Conservative leaders faced scathing rejection at the ballot box. Pierre Poilliervre, head of Canadian conservatives, and Peter Dutton, leader of the Australian people, struggled to shake off the damages with Trump.
Dutton walked back or eased Trump's policy proposals when they proved unpopular to radically cut public sector workforce. Even after the US president threatened Canadian sovereignty, Poilliebre never really fought against Trump's approach.
Charles Edel, Australia's chairman of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank, called the election in Australia “blow.” And he suggested that it stemmed, at least in part, from an implicit invasion of Trump's election, even if it focused primarily on domestic issues.
“There are ample similarities in Canadian elections, suggesting that conservative property fell due to increased tariffs and attacks on American allies,” he wrote in an email.
Some in Canada saw the results of Australian elections as a sign of solidarity far south by their cousins. “Albo Up!” online memes say they traded Albanese's nickname for a Carney's hockey-inspired anti-Trump slogan: “Elbow!”
Flights to safety
Kearney benefits from the perception that he is a stable hand in managing Trump and manages unpredictable impact on Canada's economy. This is deeply integrated with the American economy and is already damaged by tariffs and uncertainty. His background as an economic policy maker also worked in his favour.
In Singapore, the world around the world, the stability debate in times of chaos also seemed to help the incumbent Action Party.
Last month, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong told Congress that Singapore would be hit hard by new US tariffs as it relies on global trade. He predicted that Singaporeans would be slower to grow, seeking more shocks and braces.
Just like Carney, who declared his old ties between Canada and the United States “ends,” Wong issued a pessimistic warning ahead of the election. “The global conditions that have enabled Singapore to succeed over the past few decades may no longer be retained,” he said.
On Saturday, voters returned his party to power. This was undoubtedly considered to be strengthened by the “flight to safety” strategy deployed by the party.
“This is another case of the Trump effect,” said Cherian George, who wrote a book on Singapore's politics. “Trump's deep sense of concern over the trade war has driven a critical number of voters to demonstrate strong support for incumbents.”
Mixed impact
In Germany, the effect of Trump's factors, the key western ally that first held national elections after Trump took office, was not very direct, but it is still felt.
Friedrich Merz, who will be sworn as Germany's new prime minister on Tuesday, has not benefited politically from Trump's election, as Canadian or Australian leaders have done in recent votes.
But if Trump's conflict with American European allies on defense and trade did not help Merz before the vote, it has helped him.
Merz was able to push forward the suspension of strict financial spending restrictions in Germany. This will make your job easier as Prime Minister. He did so by arguing that the old certainty about America's commitment to mutual defense was gone.
“Do you seriously believe that the US government agrees to continue NATO like it used to?” he asked lawmakers in March.
Despite Elon Musk endorsing the party and appearing in one of the events per video stream, polls show that the embrace of the far-right German party known as the AFD did not help.
UK exceptions
The rapid discovery of British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer allows an unpredictable US president to have unpredictable results for foreign leaders.
Starmer, the central left leader who won the election before Trump won, initially praised the business-like way he dealt with the new US president.
Unlike Carney, Starmer went out of his way to avoid direct criticism of Trump, trying to find a common cause with him wherever possible and avoid a burst. After visiting the White House, which was deemed a successful one, even some of Hoshi's political opponents were impressed.
Meanwhile, British Trump ally Nigel Farage, the leader of anti-immigrant reform Britain, struggled to dodge accusations of sympathy for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin.
However, Mr. Stage quickly ran out of steam as he couldn't avoid a comfortable White House visit to exempt American tariffs on British goods.
His Labour Party was hit hard last week when votes were held in regional and other elections in parts of England. They lost a special parliamentary election in 187 council seats and one of their bases.
In contrast, Farage's party not only won that special election, but also achieved epic success with two mayors and drastic benefits. For the first time, his party has gained control of the lowest levels of government in several parts of the country.
Victoria Kim contributed a report from Sydney. sui-lee wee in Singapore; Christopher F. Schuetze in Berlin. Stephen Castle in London.
