One district in Nebraska will decide the presidential election

One district in Nebraska could play a key role in determining the outcome of this year's presidential election.

“This could determine who the ultimate winner is,” Jimmy Keady, president of national Republican consulting firm JLK Political Strategies, told Fox News Digital of Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.

The district, which includes the Omaha and Council Bluffs metropolitan areas, could play a major role in determining the next president because of Nebraska's unique way of distributing its electoral votes: Unlike most winner-take-all states, Nebraska awards one electoral vote to the winner of each of its three districts, with the statewide winner receiving the remaining two votes.

Nebraska has long been a solidly Republican state and has been forgotten about in presidential elections, barely appearing on maps of key battleground states.

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But that Republican reputation doesn't necessarily apply to the 2nd Congressional District, which has seen big swings in recent elections: President Biden won the district and its one electoral vote in 2020, but former President Donald Trump won it in 2016. Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah won the district in the 2012 presidential election, but former President Barack Obama won its electoral votes in 2008.

A single vote from the 2nd District has never decided an election before, but this year, with the presidential race likely to be closer than ever, it could play a decisive role.

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“With battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin remaining close and the Electoral College potentially ending up 269-269, Republicans should prioritize picking up this seat to get the 270 they need,” Keady said.

While such a scenario seems unlikely, an electoral map suggests the Omaha area could play a decisive role. If Vice President Kamala Harris wins the “blue wall” battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and former President Donald Trump holds all of the other battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, as well as a similarly situated battleground district in Maine, Harris would win the electoral votes 269-268.

If Harris wins the district, she will have the 270 votes needed to win the election, but if Trump wins the district, it will be a 269-269 tie vote, sending an already tightly contested election to the House of Representatives.

Taking on such a role may be just the right fit for the district, one of only seven in the country that the Cook Political Report rates with a Partisan Voting Index score of “even,” meaning the district traditionally votes in line with the national electorate.

This map shows a hypothetical situation in which Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District holds the key to winning or losing the election. (270 To Win)

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Keady argued that Republicans should understand that fact.

“With Democrats fielding a candidate who has not won a single vote on the national stage, Republicans have a chance to win this seat for President Trump,” Keady said. “By staying focused on the at-home issues that move voters to the right — the economy, illegal immigration, public safety — Republicans have a good chance of winning this seat and securing the presidency.”