Until recently, Pakistan's most powerful man remained behind the scenes, strictly controlling his public profile and restricting declarations to addresses choreographed primarily at set-piece military events.
But after a deadly terrorist attack in an Indian-controlled region in Kashmir almost two weeks ago, Pakistan's Army Chief General Syed Asim Munir stepped into the keen center of tensions between Pakistan and India.
General Munir is increasingly shaping Pakistani tone with his own harsh stories as India is under pressure on him for a strong response to the attack, killing more than 20 Hindu tourists near the town of Pahargam.
Standing on a tank during a military campaign on Thursday, General Munir addressed the troops on the scene. “Let's not be ambiguous,” he said. “The military misfortunes by India will be met with a prompt and determined notch-up response,” a reference to Pakistan's pledge to coincide or surpass India's strike.
General Munir's comments are seen as reflecting the need to project his strength and rally public support in India and Pakistan after years of struggle with political divisions and economic difficulties, after his country struggles for many years. These troubles have conceived the unshakable loyalty that Pakistanis have felt towards military installations for decades.
However, General Munir's response appears to be more than political calculations. Analysts describe him as an Indian hardliner, shaped by his time leading two military intelligence agencies in Pakistan and his belief that the long-term conflict with India is religious.
Many in India have seized General Munir over the remarks that he had made it six days before the terrorist attack. In front of an overseas Pakistani audience in the capital, General Islamabad explained Kashmir. This is divided between Pakistan and India, but each claims overall – as the country's “jugular vein.”
The phrase is deeply woven into the country's nationalist vocabulary, meaning that Pakistan considers Kashmir to be essential to its national identity. The Indian Foreign Ministry condemned the comment as inflammatory and called Kashmir an “essential part” of India.
Whether the current crisis escalates or gives way to restraint depends as much on international diplomacy as domestic politics.
The US and the United Nations are calling on India and Pakistan to work towards de-escalation as both have nuclear weapons. Additionally, Pakistan's permanent UN representative, Asim Ahmad, said on Friday that Pakistani diplomats and government ministers spoke with Chinese counterparts about tensions with India. China is a Pakistan ally, and there is economic benefits there.
But diplomacy may not be enough. India's Strongman Prime Minister Narendra Modi portrays Muslims in his home and in Pakistan, threatening the brand of Hindu nationalism, and has promised that India will “pursuit all terrorists and their supporters to the edge of the globe.”
After attacking Indian security forces in Kashmir in 2016 and 2019, India responded with surprise that it said it was a terrorist camp in Pakistan. This time, 26 innocent people killed by attackers at tourist sites have said, “the most deadly attack in the region in decades – “The presumed cross-border airstrike in camps will not satisfy the bloody desires of right-wing supporters,” New Delhi author and journalist Aditya Sinha.
On his part, General Munir has spoken since the attack on Pahargam in explicitly ideological terms indicating that long-term peace with India is possible.
On April 26th, he addressed the cadets at the graduation ceremony of the country's finest military academy. He evoked the “bilateral theory,” the framework behind the establishment of Pakistan in 1947. It claims to be separate countries where Hindus and Muslims need separate homelands.
This theory has long supported Pakistan's national identity and foreign policy. In the past, Pakistani generals embraced this ideological rhetoric in moments of tension with India and reverted it when diplomacy was beckoned. The revival of General Munir's theory and other comments has been interpreted by many Indians as a marked change in Pakistan's attitude towards India.
His Kashmir framing as a Pakistan “jugular vein” has become particularly nervous in India. In the same speech, General Munir said, “We will not leave the Kashmir brothers to their heroic struggle that they are against the occupation of India.”
Shekhar Gupta, editor-in-chief of The Print, an online Indian newspaper, said the timing of the comments and the animus is difficult for India to ignore.
“Pahargam's anger continued right after General Munir's speech,” Gupta said. “India must be horribly satisfied not to portray connections, especially as it has gained hostility towards Hindus, which the leaders of Pakistan or the military, have not done for a long time.”
Pakistani officials rejected any connection between General Munir's remarks and the attack in Kashmir. Ahmad, the UN's permanent Pakistan representative, dismissed the allegations that Pakistanis in India were linked to the attack, saying that the “root cause” of South Asia's instability remains an unresolved conflict over Kashmir.
The region has been at the heart of India and Pakistan's competition since its division in 1947, creating two countries from the UK's India. Kashmir has witnessed war, rebellion and long-term military deployments, making it one of the world's most unstable flashpoints.
The current showdown is not the first brush that comes with General Munir's regional crisis.
In 2019, when a suicide bombing in Kashmir caused Indian airstrikes and a brief military escalation, General Munier was Pakistan's powerful intelligence agency, Interservice Intelligence Bureau, or ISI's tenure leader, who was taken away by Prime Minister Imran Khan a few months later.
Mr. Khan later opposed General Munir's promotion to chief of the army, and their relationship remains hostile. After dropping out as a military leader, Khan was expelled in April 2022. General Munir gave orders seven months later as Chief of the Army. Khan, who has held widespread support among the Pakistani masses, has been in prison for two years.
General Munir works to maintain control of his public image, so he avoids unscripted remarks. His speeches are powerful, unambiguous, and often based on religious themes.
General Munir “is ingrained in religion and colours his views on relations with India,” said Hussain Hakkani, former Pakistani ambassador to the US. “At best,” Hakkani said, “He sought to manage the tensions and scored as many points as possible along the way.”
Thus, General Munir appears to reflect the Muslim shift into Pakistani forces than military dictator General Mohammad Zia Ulhak began to move in the 1980s. General Zia did so in collaboration with the US as he brought jihadists to trial to wage war with the Soviet Union in Afghanistan.
General Munir also governs the growing military control of Pakistan's politics and society and limits objections, critics say.
“He seems to want to be in control more than he wants to be liked,” Hakkani said. “That's his approach in domestic politics and his potential approach in dealing with India.”
The military appears to have a strong hand in relations with India and has moved to integrate institutional control over future consultations by appointing the country's spy chief as national security adviser. The role was held historically by retired generals and civilians.
For now, diplomatic relations between the two countries remain frozen. Rather than quiet diplomacy, active public messages have become the main channel of communication. In such a climate, the risk of miscalculation is severe.
Zahid Hussein, a political and security analyst in Islamabad, said that Pakistan feels compelled to respond if India launches a military strike.
“The question is whether Modi can choose to stop at this point,” he said. “Even a limited Indian strike can swirl into wider conflict.”
Eve Sampson contributed to the report from the United Nations.
