Plans to return Russian diplomats to the US

Moved to change US relations with Russia, the Trump administration is talking to Moscow about loading potential scores of Russian diplomats into the United States after years of oustermination.

But the well-meaning gestures reciprocated by Moscow could warn a kind of Trojan horse, experts and diplomats, as the Kremlin is likely to send spies as diplomats to restore a decline in espionage capabilities within the United States.

US and Russian officials met in Istanbul last month to discuss returning more diplomats to each other's countries after years of expulsion and closing diplomatic facilities. Mid-level consultations, part of a swift settlement between the Kremlin and the White House under President Trump, took place at the U.S. Consul residence.

A few days ago, in Riyadh, a US delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and a senior Russian official agreed “to ensure that the diplomatic mission is working.”

Both sides say the move could pave the way for a broader peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine.

An agreement to normalize diplomatic operations could allow the United States to carry out its own espionage. Washington has long placed spies at US embassies and consulates in Russia. However, experts say that even if the deal expands both diplomatic terms with equal numbers, Russian spies enjoy the benefits and work in a more open society in the US.

According to intelligence experts and former civil servants, new access is being combined with Trump's Russian presidential court when operations against Moscow became more brave, when opportunities for the Kremlin spying equipment became more brave.

The Trump administration has set up several sympathetic officials in Moscow's worldview and raised questions about whether it will continue to prioritize anti-intellectual projects against Russia. And the appointment of political operations Kash Patel and the conservative media character Dan Bongino promises a turbulent force for the FBI to track Russian spies through the anti-intellectual division.

“If I sit in Yasenevo or Rubyanka and target Americans, I'm happy to rub my hands,” said Paul Kolbe, a senior fellow at Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, referring to the headquarters of Russia's foreign and national intelligence reporting agencies.

The potential expansion of Russia's diplomatic footprint in the United States is because Russia's intelligence agency has become more brave with its operations against the West.

Last year, Russia planned to deploy burned Cen devices in European cargo planes and assassinate the chief executive of the German weapons manufacturer, which supplies weapons to Ukraine. Russian intelligence agents are also accused of running a disruption campaign aimed at increasing European costs to support Ukraine.

Experts say the Kremlin is keen to reverse 10 years of US actions against intelligence operatives working under diplomatic cover.

In recent years, hostility between Washington and Moscow has led to the expulsion of more than 100 Russian diplomats accused of spying and closing Russian diplomatic facilities.

Russia responds with roughly equal actions, each side capping the number of other diplomats.

Today, only the skeleton crew remains on either side, many of which include many intelligence agents.

According to former US officials, the US presence in Russia plummeted about 90% as it spread from US diplomats and local support workers to about 120 Americans at the US embassy in Moscow, spreading to five facilities. (The State Department says it will not discuss the details of diplomatic staffing for security reasons.)

About 220 Russian diplomats remain in the United States, according to one former US authorities. Most of the work is worked at the Russian Embassy in Washington, but dozens are also based in Russia's UN missions in New York and in the Houston consulate.

Both governments complain that even everyday diplomatic tasks such as visa processing and supporting travel citizens have become nearly impossible. “We hope to work very quickly to reestablish the capabilities of each mission,” Rubio said last month.

Both sides will soon meet again, “identifying specific initial steps” towards Istanbul's goals, the State Department said in a statement.

The Russian delegation was led by longtime diplomat Alexander D'Artief, who was elected the new ambassador to Moscow in Washington. The Americans were led by Sonata Coulter, a career State Department official who worked in Russia.

If the expanded diplomatic rank is tapped for spying on both sides, then Russia is expected to have inherent advantages. Moscow is extremely aggressive in putting intelligence operatives in diplomatic cover-up overseas, a former US diplomat with Russian expertise said.

Additionally, Russian agents will be easier in the US than US officials function in authoritarian wartime Russia, says Kolbe, who served 25 years in the CIA's management division.

“Russian diplomatic presence is heavily packed with offers for the Intelligence Report, aimed at infiltrating the US government and businesses,” he said. “They will have far more access and freedom of action than American diplomats in Moscow and will compete for physical and technical surveillance and harassment 24/7.”

Trump's federal workforce disruption could also benefit the Kremlin, Kolbe added.

“All the factors that create a walk-in and potential for recruiting,” he said, including political frustration, ideological sympathy, money issues and getting mad at the boss.

In contrast, Andrei Soldatov, a London-based expert on Russia's intelligence news, said simply talking to Americans poses serious risks to Russian officials.

“It could still constitute a crime,” he said. “You could be branded as a foreign agent. You could be charged with treason.”

(One of the potential benefits of expanding the US diplomatic class is that Russian diplomats, who are spies, are at least known threats. US officials say Russia made up for that loss by inserting more agents into America under informal cover.)

US-Russia relations have deteriorated sharply after the Kremlin intervened in the 2016 presidential election.

President Barack Obama ordered 35 Russian “intelligence operatives” to leave the country and demanded that two gorgeous waterfront diplomatic compounds be removed in New York and Maryland. President Trump expelled 60 Russian diplomats in 2018 and closed the Russian consulate in Seattle in 2018 after Russian agents poisoned former Russian spies over British soil. (Trump acted amid pressure from European leaders and his national security team from the Russian Hawks.)

President Joseph R. Biden Jr. discharged 10 more Russian diplomats and dozens of spies from Moscow's UN mission after the Russian cyber attack and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

In almost every case, the Kremlin retaliated by ousting an equal number of American diplomats. Russia also ordered the closure of the US consulate in St. Petersburg, and the lack of staff forced the State Department to close two others.

The Kremlin has banned the US embassy in Moscow from hiring locals who often perform maintenance and support jobs, and forced American diplomats to take responsibility for cleaning floors and cleaning snow. As a policy issue, the US could not respond in kind as Russia does not employ Americans at its facilities.

Obama has shut down Russian waterfront properties in New York and Maryland as Russians used them to avoid US surveillance by having conversations on the beach, US officials said.

The two consulates that were closed during Trump's first term were also seen as threats to the Intelligence News. One was San Francisco, where I got access to the secrets of Silicon Valley technology. The other was located near Seattle's nuclear submarine base and the Boeing headquarters for defense contractors.

If consultations go on, the United States should move intentionally and gradually, observe strict reciprocity, and not immediately reward Russia with full diplomatic staff.

But Soldatov warned that the US must remain vigilant.

“Russians, they will try to exploit this new opportunity that will be given to them like a gift,” he said.

He added, “I think that's a very serious risk.”

Adam Goldman contributed the report.