In the inauguration speech on Monday, President Donald J. Trump promised to launch an American astronaut again on Mars.
Mr. Trump's political sponsor, who was sitting nearby, and established Space X in hopes that he could send a set of Mars someday, raised two thumb with his enthusiastic smile. Ta. The huge starship rocket currently under development is made for its mission.
Mr. Trump may reduce other NASA programs to see what a new concept means in the NASA's existing monthly plan, when the astronaut will reach Mars, and the cost. I didn't talk about many details, such as.
President Trump's remarks about Mars
Trump has previously mentioned Mars landing. At an election rally held on October 9 in Pennsylvania Reading, he promised that it will be realized during his term. “We are going to lead the world in space and reach Mars by the end of his term,” he said.
Does he mean that an American astronaut will land on Mars by January 20, 2029, the last day of staying in the White House, or even more in the future, astronauts. I didn't find out if it was enough to send a prototype.
He said on Monday that an astronaut in the United States said, “Planting the stars -shaped flag on Mars,” but did not mention when.
Apart from this, Musk declares himself without being shy. In September, Space X plans to launch five spacecraft on Mars in 2026, re -enter the light atmosphere of Mars, survive, and test the ability to arrive on the ground. Was stated.
Earth and Mars pass once every 26 months. Next, those positions will be in late 2026. Musk said if these landing boats would be successful, the first person would travel next, that is, travel in 2028.
Therefore, Mr. Musk's timeline is possible at least from the viewpoint of orbital mechanics. However, many other questions have been solved.
What happened a month?
Mr. Trump did not mention the moon, despite the fact that the first space plan of the space plan was to return the astronaut as part of the NASA Artemis plan to the moon. There are already signs that the new administration is planning a major change in Artemis.
One of the hints is who is currently running NASA.
When the presidential administration is replaced, the NASA top political appointment resigns, and a career employee deputy administrator will be replaced until the new administrator is approved in the Senate. Mr. Trump nominated Jared Isaacman, a billionaire who flew twice in a private astronaut mission in Space X Rocket.
Trump announced on Monday that Janet Petro, director of the NASA Kennedy Space Center in Florida, will be on behalf of the administrator. At that time, he bypassed James Freep, the third highest staff in NASA.
Freeping is an advocate of the current Artemis plan.
James Mansy, a Republican space policy consultant who is not involved in Trump's NASA migration, said that “Jim Freep has said that Artemis is perfect and needs to be changed,” he said. “This is disqualified to the president who wants to change the situation.”
The important part of the current Altemis plan includes a powerful but expensive NASA rocket Space Lone System and Orion Capsules in which astronauts move between the earth and the moon.
Many of the space industry expect the next Trump administration to cancel the SLS and probably stop Orion.
Mr. Musk wrote on Christmas: “Artemis architecture is very inefficient because it is a program that maximizes employment, not a program that maximizes the results.”
The next day, Musk, who has met with Mr. Trump many times, seems to have demanded that he would fly completely. “No, we go straight to Mars. The moon is distracted.”
Despite the $ 4 billion contract of a starship version that takes astronauts from the moon to the moon, Space X has neglected the moon.
Artemis's cancellation will also cancel the Space X contract.
“If the budget proposal is announced, you will know if you will not include the funds to the moon at all,” and hopes that NASA will continue the monthly plan using a commercial alternative to SLS. I mentioned.
Can the American astronaut really reach Mars?
Musk has a long history of presenting unrealistic and excessive optimistic schedules for rocket development. In 2016, he predicted that Space X's first unmanned mission was launched in 2022 and that astronauts would head to Mars this year.
Space X has made a technical progress, but is far from what is needed to succeed in traveling. The most important hurdles include a quick response between the launch and the fuel supply to the spaceship on orbit.
Mr. Musk's Starship's life support system is also executed with carbon dioxide from the air, recycled water, and executed other tasks to keep the ship in a resident state, and surely surely for more than a year. Must work.
If an astronauts succeeded in landing on Mars, the return would require more not proven technology.
First, Starship needs to replenish methane and oxygen.
Most of the technology to extract these gases from the atmosphere of Mars is still in the hypothesis. Space X is probably to send additional starks with propulsions for the return, which will increase complexity.
Next, there is a question of who pays all of these expenses. These Mars flights were performed in the Altemis moon mission during the busy time, and probably Space X has fulfilled the contract obligation to build a lunar landing ship.
Thus, at least on the desk, it may be reasonable for Mr. Musk to cancel the Artemis moon mission, and instead pays Musk for NASA for Mars.
