Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Tuesday that Israel and Hamas are “on the brink” of agreeing to declare a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and release hostages held there, after more than 15 months of fighting. There are growing expectations for a ceasefire between the two countries. war.
“We're on the brink. We're closer than we've ever been,” Blinken said at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. “But now we are sitting here waiting for final word from Hamas about acceptance, and until we get that word we will be on the brink.”
Neither Israeli nor Hamas officials have publicly confirmed their positions on the proposed ceasefire, but Blinken suggested that Israel was party to the deal and that its fate now rests with Hamas.
The latest round of negotiations has repeatedly failed, and despite optimistic statements from U.S. officials, the negotiations have continued to stall.
But in recent weeks, officials familiar with the talks have expressed growing hopes for a deal.
Officials from both the Israeli government and Hamas have indicated they are willing to move forward if the other side agrees. Hamas officials said on Monday that an agreement within days was possible unless Israel abruptly changed its position. Israeli officials said on Tuesday that Israel was ready to conclude a deal and was awaiting Hamas' decision.
Some officials have also suggested that the impending deadlines of the end of President Biden's term and the Jan. 20 inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump are helping to bridge the gap.
Qatari Foreign Ministry Spokesman Majid Al-Ansari told reporters on Tuesday that the mediator “succeeded in minimizing many differences between the parties.” The talks focused on “the final details to reach an agreement,” he said.
But mediators and other officials, including from Qatar, Egypt and the United States, have warned that even significant progress could be dashed at the last minute. All previous negotiations over the past few months ultimately collapsed amid mutual accusations.
“We believe we are in the final stages, but until there is an announcement, there will be no announcement,” Al-Ansari said, adding there was no immediate timeline for signing the deal.
Trump warned that if the hostages were not released by the time he became president, “there will be a retribution from hell.” Steve Witkoff, Trump's pick for Middle East envoy, also visited Qatar and Israel, and on Saturday met with senior officials there, including Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
A deal between Hamas and Israel would provide some relief to Palestinians in Gaza, who have endured dire conditions in concentration camps and relentless Israeli shelling, and to the families of hostages abducted from Israel, who have been worried for more than a year. It will bring relief. About the fate of a loved one.
Manar Shilmi, 34, a psychologist with an international aid organization, said, “I hope that this time, their return will become a reality.'' She hoped to return to her home in Gaza City, where she had taken refuge early in the war. “We have suffered more than enough.”
Al-Ansari said the framework agreement had been sent to both sides and that talks were currently focused on “salient details” on how to implement the agreement.
Hamas also said in a statement that negotiations had “reached the final stage.” The Palestinian armed group's leadership “hopes that these talks will end in a complete and clear agreement,” Hamas said.
Hamas officials negotiating in Doha will need to get the consent of Hamas's remaining military commanders in Gaza on any new deal. Those commanders include Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother Yahya led the group until he was killed by Israel in September. Communicating with them can be difficult and cause delays.
It is not yet clear whether Mr. Sinwar has informed Hamas leaders in Doha of his position on the proposed deal.
A diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the volatile negotiations, said the framework for the agreement was heavily influenced by previous proposals discussed in May and July. The proposals detail a three-phase ceasefire in which Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from Gaza while Hamas would release hostages in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned in Israel.
For more than a year, international efforts have been unable to end the war sparked by a Hamas-led attack in October 2023 that killed around 1,200 people. According to Israeli authorities, another 250 people were taken hostage in Gaza.
In response, Israel launched a military operation against Hamas that destroyed large swathes of the enclave and killed at least 45,000 people, according to Gaza health officials who do not distinguish between civilians and fighters.
During a week-long ceasefire in November 2023, approximately 105 hostages were freed, the bodies of others were recovered by Israeli forces, and several were rescued alive. There are currently believed to be about 98 hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip, and Israeli authorities estimate that about 36 of them have died.
During the first phase of the ceasefire, which will last about six weeks, Hamas plans to release 33 named hostages, of whom Israel believes most are alive, said the person, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. An Israeli official said. The official said Israel was willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, but that number would depend on how many of the hostages survived.
Eli Arbag, whose daughter Lili, 19, was abducted from the military base where she worked in the Hamas-led attack, met with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday night, along with other relatives of the hostages.
Mr. Albag said Mr. Netanyahu expressed an optimistic outlook. But he said it's still hard to imagine what it would be like to have a daughter home.
“We want the deal to be signed first,” he said. “Then you make room for other thoughts.”
However, while there is significant public pressure in Israel to reach an agreement to release the hostages, many Israelis also believe that the ceasefire will effectively seize power for Hamas in the Gaza Strip and allow the fighters to eventually regroup. They fear that this could allow them to plan further attacks in the months or years ahead. road.
Two of Netanyahu's hardline allies, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, have already denounced the deal as a de facto capitulation to Hamas. If the two far-right parties protest and leave Prime Minister Netanyahu's ruling coalition, it could threaten Netanyahu's government.
The deal is likely to still stand, as Israel's parliamentary opposition is largely committed to giving Prime Minister Netanyahu a safety net to secure a ceasefire and a hostage deal. But it is unclear how long that will last, as Netanyahu's political future will depend on his rivals who have vowed to oust him.
In Gaza, displaced English teacher Montaser Baja, who has taken refuge in Gaza City, said Palestinians are starting to hope that a deal is imminent after more than a year of hunger and poverty. Ta.
But even if both sides declare a ceasefire, Bahaja said, many Gazans are still fearful of an uncertain post-war future. He added that even if the Hamas deal secured the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, few would see it as an achievement given the scale of death and devastation in Gaza.
“Everything is up in the air,” he said. “At this point, people just want this to be over.”
