Voters from two Florida Congressional districts head to vote Tuesday. Republicans are aiming to control both solid red seats and have a little more room to breathe in a home that holds a thin majority of razors.
But the Democratic candidates in the two special elections have largely surpassed Republican candidates thanks to bases eager to resist President Donald Trump and his sweeping and controversial agenda.
The race in Florida's first and sixth Congressional districts, where Trump scored 37 and 30 points in last year's presidential election, is considered an early referendum in the opening round of several months of Trump's second job tour at the White House.
While the GOP was expected to wipe out both races, some public and private votes suggest that the District 6 showdown is now a margin race of errors.
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Additionally, Trump, who has pointed to the large-scale fundraising advantage of Democratic candidates, expressed growing concerns by Republicans on Friday who told reporters “I don't know what will happen in such a case.”
Florida's chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronis, is preferred over Democrat Gay Barrymont in the multi-commands field of racing to fill the vacant lot at 1 CD, located on the far north corner of Florida in the Panhandle region.
However, Valimont broke through Patronis with a fundraiser with a margin of about 5-1.
What does that mean for the House GOP majority if Republicans lose one of Tuesday's elections: “It's going to be difficult.”
Republican Matt Getz, who won a district reelection in the election last November, took office weeks after Trump was selected as the attorney general candidate in his second administration. Gaetz later retracted himself from the consideration of the Cabinet in the debate.
But that was the race on the sixth CD, from Daytona Beach on Florida's Atlantic Coast to the outskirts of Ocala, just south of St. Augustine.
The race is to take over Republican Michael Waltz, who resigned from his seat on January 20th after Trump named him a national security adviser.
Republican Sen. Randy Fein is facing Democrat Josh Weil in the multinational field.
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Weil has attracted a lot of national attention in recent weeks by winning a fine with a margin of about 10-1 in the campaign cash battle.
Cash discrepancies in the sixth CD race have made a last-minute contribution to encourage external groups along the GOP and assisting in fines.
Josh Weil, a school teacher and Democratic candidate for the seat in Florida's 6th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives, will speak at a Town Hall event in Ocala, Florida on March 26, 2025. (Reuters/Octavio Jones)
“Liberal Josh Weil wants to roadblock Trump's agenda.”
The US PAC, which was bankrolled last year by Trump's top donor billionaire Elon Musk, also injected an infusion on the closing day before the election.
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“If our candidates were to collect money at a faster rate and get it faster on TV, I would prefer,” North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson told reporters last week. But Hudson added that the fine “is doing what he needs to do. He's on TV now,” and he emphasized, “We're going to win the seat. I'm not worried at all.”
Neither the NRCC nor the Congressional Leadership Fund nor the top super PAC Backing House Republicans have raced resources.
But Trump found the Teletown hall late last week for both the fine and Patronis, and he also went to social media on Saturday to praise both candidates to praise Republican voters.
President Donald Trump will arrive in Air Force 1 on Friday, March 28th, 2025 at Palm Beach International Airport in West Palm Beach, Florida. (AP Photo/Manuel Barthsenate)
“Randy was an incredible voice for Maga,” Trump wrote of the fine. “In Congress, Randy becomes an incredible fighter.”
Trump was optimistic about wiping out Florida's elections, but says “they look good,” but concerns about holding Florida's sixth CD seat helped pull the president's nomination for GOP representative Elise Stefanik, serving as UN ambassador.
Stefanik represents New York's 21st Congressional District. This is a large, primarily rural district at the northernmost tip of the state, including most of the Adirondacks and the Thousand Island area. She cruised last November to get re-elected 24 points each.
“We don't want to take a chance, we don't want to experiment,” Trump said, noting that if confirmed as the UN ambassador, it was a special election later this year to fill Stefanik's seat.
“She's very popular. She's going to win. And someone else will probably win because we did well there. I did very well there. But the word 'probably' is not a good thing,” the president added as he once again emphasized that he “don't want to take a chance.”
At an event with House GOP Conference Chairman Ellis Stefanik and then-President Former Donald Trump, New York. (Getty Images)
Trump wasn't just Republicans expressing some concerns about race in Florida's sixth district.
Former top political advisor and conservative host Steve Bannon warned last week that “fines cannot be won.” Additionally, second-term Florida Governor Ron DeSantis told reporters last week that the GOP had a lower performance in the special election, “it's a reflection of the candidates running in that race.”
However, it is worth pointing out the controversial history between DeSantis and Fine, the first Florida Republicans to reverse his support from DeSantis to Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential nomination game.
On the eve of the election, a Florida Republican official told Fox News that the party doesn't panic about the race, but rather “concerns.” However, officials who asked him to remain anonymous to speak more freely said the victory was likely still around 7-10 points.
The GOP currently has a majority of 218-213 people in the House. There are two vacant seats in Florida and two vacant seats in which a Democrat passed away in March.
Republican Rep. Byron Donald predicted in a digital interview with Fox News on Friday, which launched the 2026 campaign for the governor of Florida, that if the party loses one of Tuesday's elections, it would be “hard” for the majority of GOP House.
But he said, “I'm not looking forward to it. I think I'm going to win both seats on Tuesday, because Republican voters in those districts had a clear choice at the end of the day.”
House majority Whip Rep. Tom Emmer told Fox News Digital, “Is Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine exactly necessary for the Republicans of the house to join our team?”
Emmer, the third Republican in the House, stressed that “their vote and leadership will be important as they work to promote President Trump's agenda in Congress and make America great again.”
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The Republican-controlled two district races aren't ideal for Democrats to flip, but the election is the first opportunity for voters and donors to make a difference in federal contests since Trump returned to power in the White House.
Voters from two Florida Congressional districts head to vote Tuesday. Republicans are aiming to control both solid red seats and have a little more room to breathe in a home that holds a thin majority of razors. (Getty Images)
Democrats say the surge in fundraising for candidates is a sign that their party is motivated amidst voters' complaints about the sweeping and controversial moves Trump has made in their party's weeks in office.
They also point to Senate elections on the Pennsylvania battlefield last week. There, Democrats flipped seats from red to blue that Trump easily carried in the November presidential election.
“Americans don't buy what Republicans sell,” House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries told reporters.
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Jeffries and other Democrats have not predicted victory, and the House Democrats' campaign division – the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee – has not invested resources in either race.
But Jeffries, a top Democrat in the House, said, “Because these districts are Republicans, there's usually no reason to believe that the race is approaching, but what I can almost guarantee is that Democrat candidates perform significantly more than they perform in both of these Florida special elections.”
Mark Meredith from Fox News contributed to this report
