Researchers say that the asteroid 2024 YR4 can hit the earth, but the odds are small.

You may hear about the big asteroids heading to the earth. Don't panic.

Immediately after the Christmas day, astronomer found something fled from the earth. A rock between 130 feet and 330 feet in length was named YR4 in 2024. Over the next few weeks, they simulated the potential future orbitals. They say that there is 1.3 % of the asteroids on the earth on December 22, 2032, based on the latest information.

Should I keep you at night?

“No, it's not,” said David Lankin, an asteroid Spotter on a comet of the University of Arizona.

It is fair to say that the current odds of the earth -hitting objects may be scary -the asteroids in this size can cause harm. If it attacks the city, the damage does not cause large extinction, but the damage to the city itself is devastating.

However, the probability of 1.3 % of the hit may be 98.7 %. “It's not the number you want to ignore, but it's not the number you need to lose sleep,” Lankin said.

As astronomers collect new data about objects, the odds may decrease over time.

For now, according to experts, calm is guaranteed. The asteroid was discovered several years before the dense shaving with the earth. That's a good thing.

“We find, track and characterize the harmful asteroids and comets as intended. The international system we are introducing is applied to the Mary Land Research Institute in John's Hopkins. I did.

What you need to know about YR4 in 2024 is as follows.

How was this asteroid discovered?

It was identified by four telescopes around the world by the last alert system of the asteroid land and landlord impact, or by Atlas. Chile's telescope discovered YR4 in 2024 on December 27, just two days after a close approach to the earth.

Now I am away from the planet and faints every day.

How much is the 2024 YR4?

According to the Object Adjustment Center near Earth in the European Space Organization, the length is 130-330 feet. The range of this size is based on the reflected amount of sunlight. You can only give the size range without accurately knowing how the surface of the YR4 in 2024 is reflected.

More accurate estimates can be done using radar, but it is impossible until the asteroids are close to another on December 17, 2028, but completely safe.

Are you concerned about asteroids of this size?

yes.

The 130 -foot asteroid exploded in a remote patch in Siberia in 1908 and is comparable to the meteor (more than twice the New York City), which destroyed 800 square miles. The 330 -foot asteroid causes a much larger local damage. Strike to the city destroys many of them. If the object survives a journey in the atmosphere and hits the sea off the coast, the resulting tsunami may destroy nearby coasts.

How can you know that it could affect 2032?

At the Jet Promotion Research Institute in NASA in California, the nearby Earth Object Research Center has an American asteroid and comet map creator. Use sophisticated software to track the movements of all known objects near all known earth.

Sentry, one of their programs, evaluates the orbit that is a near -known Earth object, and decides whether to have a small chance to hit the earth in the next century. If you can't reduce (essentially) shock odds to zero (essentially), remain on the St. Risk List.

According to Davide Farnocchia, the naSa center voyage engineer: However, based on only a few observation results, the prediction in 2032 was initially very large. As the number of observations increases to hundreds, he states: “The probability of impact has gradually increased last month, exceeding 1 %, an important value.”

Turinoscale is a tool to tell the public and policy proprietors how much interest in asteroids. It is the range from 0 (potentially a fatal collision is effectively zero) to 10 (the collision is certain and all human civilization is possible).

2024 YR4 is currently sitting at 3 o'clock. It is worthy of a close encounter for less than 10 years and the attention of astronomers.

This is the second highest evaluation given to the asteroid. Only Apofis, an asteroid that was once considered to be a threat, has reached four. However, as I learned more about Apofis, I found that there was no opportunity to hit the earth for at least a century.

When will the impact odds change?

What usually happens is that more observations are performed and the orbit of asteroids is more accurate, so the shock odds plummet.

The same story will probably be deployed in YR4 in 2024. “The most likely result is that further observation eliminates the impact,” Lankin said.

2024 YR4 is very faint as you leave the earth. In other words, most telescopes are trying to track them. “However, given that this is a special case, the members of the community demanded that some of the larger and more competent facilities demanded time (and received),” said Dr. Livekin. I said. “It's okay until April.”

Astronomers will also get even greater opportunities to improve the predictions during the fly -beat in December 2028. However, until then, the effects of 2032 may not be completely excluded.

“I expect the impact probability to be zero, not 100 %,” said Dr. Libkin. “However, it may take several years to display data.”

Finally, do you need to worry about the 2024 YR4?

No, not the present. It is very likely that the planet will be missed in 2032.

And when it knew it was a hit, Lankin said, “We may be able to do something about it.”

One option is to try to change the asteroid route by colliding the spaceship if you have enough time for the space agency to install the operation.

If it failed or impossible, and the government resolves the accurate shock, they may quickly evacuate those who are in danger.

Robin George Andrews is the author of “How to Kill Asteroids”, a book on planetary defense science.