Vice President Kamala Harris significantly closed the gap with former President Trump in Iowa, a state that had previously been considered a sure win for him.
The latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, released Sunday, showed Harris with 47% support for Trump in Iowa to 43%, narrowing her lead to four points.
The poll marks a stunning reversal from a Des Moines Register-Mediacom Iowa poll conducted in the spring, which showed Trump leading President Biden in Iowa by 18 points, 50% to 32%.
“Four points is not a comfortable margin for Trump,” pollster J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told the Des Moines Register in response to the first Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released since Harris became the Democratic nominee. “The race has tightened up significantly.”
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Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump (Getty Images)
Iowa has long been an afterthought in this year's race. It's not one of the swing states along with Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and most analysts see it as a Republican favorite. Trump won the state by nearly 10 percentage points in 2016 and by a similar margin in 2020, but that margin could be tough for Harris to overcome in 2024.
But Iowa has been a battleground state in the past, with Democratic Vice President Al Gore elected in 2000, Republican President George W. Bush elected in 2004, and former President Barack Obama elected in 2008 and 2012.
While a single poll is unlikely to change the overall tide of a race, Harris' ability to turn Midwestern battleground states such as Iowa and Ohio into swing states could put her in a better position come November.
Former President Trump participated in a Fox News town hall meeting with Sean Hannity at New Holland Arena in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on September 4, 2024. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
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Harris' surge in Iowa was driven largely by female voters, who polled her leading Trump among them 53% to 36%, while Trump leads Iowa men 59% to 32%.
Women are now more likely to vote than in previous surveys, with 8% more women saying they will vote in this year's election than in a June survey.
Other groups who showed an increase in intending to vote included those under 45 (up 10%), those from urban areas (6%), and university graduates (9%).
Vice President Kamala Harris during a debate in Philadelphia, Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2024. (Doug Mills/The New York Times/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
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“This poll may capture newly energized voters who were planning to sit out the election at the time of the June poll,” Selzer said.
The poll was conducted Sept. 8-11 among 811 Iowa residents age 18 and older and has a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
