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Numerous polls conducted before and after the 2024 presidential election show that one of voters' top concerns is the state of the economy. This was especially true among voters who voted for Donald Trump.
The phenomenon has perplexed countless supporters of the Biden-Harris administration, who have long argued that the United States has enjoyed an economic boom under Joe Biden's leadership.
As evidence, the White House and countless left-wing political commentators have often pointed to employment and unemployment numbers as evidence of the economic success of the Biden-Harris administration.
President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris arrive at Prince George's Community College in Largo, Maryland, on August 15, 2024, to discuss the government's efforts to reduce costs. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
But voters intuitively knew better. No amount of New York Times headlines or excited rants on cable news shows could convince them that the American economy was doing well.
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Those who voted for President Trump now have numbers to back up their suspicions.
A new report from the Philadelphia Fed shows that the Biden-Harris administration's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) overestimated employment in 25 states in the second quarter of 2024. Only two states had a BLS that was too high. (The second quarter of 2024 is the most recent period for which the Philadelphia Fed has updated data.)
The Philadelphia Fed said updated expanded data shows state payroll payrolls fell 0.1% in the second quarter, suggesting a net employment decline in the period compared to a year ago.
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Preliminary employment figures provided by the White House showed that states increased their payrolls over the same period earlier this year. Initial numbers from the Biden-Harris administration put the national job growth rate at 1.8%, when state employment figures are combined. National survey data showed an increase of 1.1%.
Philadelphia Fed researchers believe both of these numbers were significantly wrong.
The Philadelphia Fed believes the Biden-Harris administration's previously released jobs numbers were off by 1.2 to 1.9 percentage points, depending on the survey data used. This may seem small, but when applied to employment statistics for all 50 states, it results in an overrepresentation of 3 million jobs nationally.
How could the Biden-Harris administration deviate so much?
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Although it's incredibly difficult to prove, it's reasonable to suspect that the White House rigged employment surveys to make it appear as if the economy was booming.
Another report from the Philadelphia Fed says the biggest reason to think the White House may have intentionally misled Americans is that past employment numbers will eventually be adjusted to the second quarter of 2024 numbers. It is said that it is almost never corrected.
For example, the Philadelphia Fed estimates that the preliminary state employment report for the second quarter of 2023 differs by just 0.1 percentage point from the more accurate data reported later in the year.
In fact, we found no examples of similar flaws in the Philadelphia Fed's other 2024 or 2023 reports on state employment statistics. The state employment statistics released by the Biden-Harris administration for the second quarter of 2024 appear to deviate significantly from other quarters in both years.
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However, we found similar employment overestimations in some 2022 reports. I believe it is just a coincidence that 2022 was another important election year.
The 2022 report also showed significant differences between the state's provisional payroll numbers and a later, more accurate report, with the more accurate numbers showing a much larger difference than previously thought. It is also worth noting that low employment was found in the As previously mentioned, this also applies to the Philadelphia Fed's latest report for Q2 2024.
In other words, in the past three years when the Biden-Harris administration made significant revisions to state employment statistics, they were almost always revised downwards.
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Is it a coincidence that these mistakes typically benefit the White House? Or could it be that the Biden-Harris administration is intentionally fooling people into thinking employment is much higher than it actually is?
Only time and a Congressional investigation will tell.
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