NEWFIELD, N.H. — A new poll in New Hampshire, the state hosting the year's only competitive gubernatorial election, shows the race to succeed popular Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is tight.
The survey results, along with another poll released in New Hampshire earlier this week, also suggest that former President Trump's standing in the state in the race for the White House could be a hindrance for lower-ranking Republicans.
A poll released Thursday by the University of New Hampshire Research Center showed Democratic gubernatorial candidate and former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig narrowly leading Republican candidate, former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, 47 percent to 46 percent.
A poll released earlier this week by Saint Anselm College Research Center also showed Ayotte with a slight lead in the race, which was decided by a coin toss.
New Hampshire sets 2024 primary elections
Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican candidate for governor of New Hampshire, speaks to voters at the Hampton Beach Seafood Festival on Sept. 7, 2024. (Kelly Ayotte campaign)
Ayotte, who served six years as a senator and served as state attorney general before joining Congress, has much higher name recognition than Craig and a significant campaign-finance advantage over her rival.
But new polls suggest Trump may not be doing Ayotte any favors.
Ayotte told Fox News during the New Hampshire campaign
“Kelly is very popular, but I think Trump will be a burden,” Tom Rath, a longtime Granite State-based Republican consultant and former state attorney general, told Fox News.
Trump came within about 3,000 votes of winning New Hampshire in the 2016 presidential election, but President Biden beat Trump in the state by more than seven points four years ago.
Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump speaks with supporters, campaign staff and family members during a primary election night rally at the Sheraton in Nashua, New Hampshire, on January 23, 2024. (Alex Wong/Getty Images)
A University of New Hampshire poll has Trump trailing Vice President Kamala Harris by 11 points, while a Saint Anselm College poll shows Harris leading in New Hampshire by a high single-digit margin.
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“If this had been a direct election, I believe Kerry would have had a lead within the margin of error,” argued Mr. Russ, who ran as an independent in the 2024 Republican presidential primary and served as a top adviser to Mr. Trump's rival, then-Ohio Governor John Kasich, in the 2016 GOP nomination race.
“Trump is now certainly the anchor of Kelly and her campaign, and she's the flagship,” a Republican strategist in New Hampshire told Fox News.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris arrives to speak during a campaign event at Throwback Brewery in Northampton, New Hampshire, on September 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Jacqueline Martin)
The strategist, who requested anonymity to speak more freely, noted that Ayotte's “flagship status means everyone is attacking her. There's not a lot of evidence of the Trump campaign working in New Hampshire, and now it's Kelly vs. the world.”
Another New Hampshire-based Republican consultant also pointed to the limited commitment and resources in New Hampshire from the Republican National Committee and the Republican National Congressional Committee.
“Kelly is fighting this alone. That's not a good situation. She needs someone else to attract the attacks,” said the consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “(Trump) is not focused on New Hampshire. His low approval ratings and lack of enthusiasm are dragging down the whole campaign.”
Craig, who has served three two-year terms leading the Granite State's largest city, narrowly defeated Cinde Warmington, the only Democrat on the state's five-member Executive Council, to win his party's nomination in last week's state primary election.
Ayotte, a former state attorney general before being elected to the Senate in 2010, won the Republican nomination for governor in a landslide victory over former New Hampshire Senate President Chuck Morse.
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Sununu, who decided not to run for re-election this year after winning four consecutive two-year terms as New Hampshire governor (New Hampshire and neighboring Vermont are the only states in the country that elect their governor every two years), seemed unaffected by Trump's defeat in New Hampshire four years ago by a high single-digit percentage of the vote.
Sununu won a landslide victory in 2020, thanks in part to Granite Staters' ticket-splitting tradition.
The governor endorsed Ayotte in his run for the nomination this summer, and she has repeatedly praised Sununu and pledged to advance his policies if elected in November.
New Hampshire Republican Governor Chris Sununu is interviewed by Fox News Digital on July 11, 2024 in Newfields, New Hampshire. (Fox News/Paul Steinhauser)
Ayotte was a rising star in the Republican Party in 2016, when she ran for reelection on a high-profile national security platform.
But just before the 2016 election, she withdrew her support for Trump over the “Access Hollywood” controversy, in which he made vulgar comments about sexually assaulting women without their consent.
“I cannot and will not support a presidential candidate who demeans and brags about assaulting women,” Ayotte said at the time.
Ayotte lost reelection to then-Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan by just over 1,000 votes.
Ayotte remained neutral in the New Hampshire primary, the first in the nation to endorse Trump for president, but endorsed him in early March, shortly after he secured the Republican nomination.
Noting Ayotte's support for Trump, Russ said, “I understand her position of embracing Trump and not making space for him. You have to live with the consequences…If she's the top candidate and you're the next level, it's really hard to get around that issue in the campaign.”
Also working against her is the torrent of negative ads run against her by Democratic groups all summer.
The attack led to increased negative ratings for Ayotte in both the UNH Research Center and Saint Anselm College polls.
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