This winter's COVID wave in the United States was the gentle grace period and was the calmest ever.
According to the wastewater data integrated by the Disease Control Prevention Center, not only the circulation is lower than the holidays, but also the less waste viruses of the program tracked by the program.
The COVID hospitalization rate was about half of last year, and deaths have decreased. In late December, about 600 people were dying every week. Last winter at that time, it was about 2,000. (During the rapid increase in Omicron at the end of 2021, weekly deaths were 10,000.)
The waste levels cannot know the number of individual cases of COVID, but recent data reflects the important small state of viruses in five years of attack.
“This is definitely the calm winter,” said Michael Mina, an epidemiologist and highly scientific officer of EMED. “From the viewpoint of hospitalization, from the viewpoint of spread.”
New and low
Peter Chin Hong, a specialist in the University of California, San Francisco's school, is one of the reasons why he is likely to have a smaller population than summer than summer. This year's vaccine was also suitable for the circulation change rate. According to CDC data, more people have gained more people than this year.
The virus also said that after the summer waves, it did not acquire the type of mutation that made infected or greater illness.
Orburi Gordon, a epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, said it was unexpected a few years after a new virus.
“You are really bad,” she said. “Usually, the first year is the worst. As long as the incidence and severity -it is calm.”
Epidemiologists do not yet know how the “bass line” COVID wave looks like. And there is no guarantee that every winter is more calm than last time. However, Mina said that the possibility of a new variant, which could cause serious harm, is now much lower.
“How fast the variant is rising, and how aggressively the variant should begin to decline?” He said. “The short answer is Jesus. The virus has grown.”
The American immune system is very familiar with viruses, and Mina states that it can be aware of and attack on average through vaccinations and previous infections. In other words, he said that he could reduce the amount of virus when he became ill, or he cleared the virus faster, became ill, and was infected with a few people in the process. If there are few infections, there are fewer opportunities for viruses to mutate.
Other ways to get sick
Nevertheless, if almost everyone you know feels sick this winter (or still), you are not wrong. It was another tough season for other respiratory viruses.
During its peak, the hospitalization rate of the weekly influenza this year exceeded the high rate of last winter. The hospitalization of the respiratory cystic library (RSV) is reflected as last year. (Norovirus is not a respiratory organs, but it is particularly expensive this year.)
According to CDC estimation, influenza and COVID have almost the same death this season, about 8,000 to 9,000 in mid -January. Cobid's death has been about 25,000 since last summer. (If one virus is taken, the risk of getting another virus for a short time may decrease, but it is very likely that multiple viruses will increase rapidly at once.)
Comparison with influenza is useful for COVID to stay here, like influenza. Like influenza, there are better and worse seasons. According to Professor Gordon, it may be found that this winter was on the low side of our new baseline.
However, unlike the flu, the waves other than winter will probably increase. Although the timing of the rapid increase in the winter of COVID was relatively consistent, it has peaked in early January every year, but the other waves have not yet fallen into a clear pattern. The mild increase during the winter vacation may mean something worse in the second half of this year, probably in the latter half of this winter. And for those who are exposed to higher risks, it continues to die and death, leading to a new case in COVID.
“There may be a good time, but there may be a bad time,” said Dr. Chin Hong. “So, do you get something later? We need to be humble.”
But for now, for Americans and experts who have tracked viruses for five years, there is a scaling of relief. “I'm very excited if I've never seen a crazy variant in the rest,” he said.
