One year ago, when a bird flu hit dairy cows for the first time, it was thought that bird flu could affect a small number of isolated groups and disappear as soon as possible. Rather, the virus is infected with more than 900 flocks and dozens of people, killing one person, and there is no sign of fashion.
More than a dozen experts have interviewed that pandemic is still inevitable. However, a series of progress over the past few weeks indicates that the possibility is no longer far.
Experts waste the opportunity to confront the trend by reflecting the failure of the new Coronavirus infection pandemic (global epidemic), such as crisp guidelines, insufficient inspections, and significant delays in data presentations. He said he was.
As an example of this confusion, the New York Times reported that several dairy cows in Aidaho, which were infected in the spring, showed mild symptoms again in late autumn. In mid -January, the Ministry of Agriculture announced that no new infections have been confirmed in the Aidaho flock since October. However, state authorities publicly discussed mild cases in November.
Experts said that it would not be surprising that the second seizure of the infection would lighten the symptoms of the cow, but could be a welcome news for farmers. However, the reinfection suggests that the virus called H5N1 may create an opportunity to develop infinitely on the farm and evolve into a more dangerous form, and this is a “high -risk” scenario. A biologist Louise Moncltre said.
“H5 is likely to circulate on a dairy farm with no symptoms, and it may be difficult to make quick or simple detection,” said Dr. Monkura.
According to them, it is impossible to predict whether viruses evolve the ability to spread among people, rather than when it will happen. However, concerns are that if a bird flu finds an appropriate combination of genetic mutation, the epidemic may expand rapidly.
“I don't have to worry about going to the hill with my luggage, but in the past 4-6 weeks, there are more signs of the possibility of pandemic,” Richard said. Ibeau, Influenza expert at St. Jude Pediatric Research Hospital.
Federal officials have subtly changed their tone when discussing the spread of infections, emphasizing how rapid the situation changes.
For the general public, H5N1 said, “The risk is lower than the other risks we are facing today,” said Dr. Niraf Shah, Deputy Director of the Disease Control Prevention Center. But “100 %, it can change,” he said. “This is a dangerous virus.”
Health experts emphasize that there are preventive measures to be taken by Americans. Do not touch sick, dead birds or other animals. If you have symptoms like influenza, take a test. Do not ingest raw milk or meat or give pets.
If a larger trend breaks out, the federal vaccine stockpiled has many millions of vaccines, but it may be necessary to update the vaccine according to the virus evolution. In any case, the authorities will have to work hard to produce the amount that matches the population.
Studies recommend treatment with antiviral drugs, but this drug has little effect on reducing illness.
The concerns of many experts are Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who will lead the Federal Health Bureau if the infection is confirmed, has criticized the new Corona Vaccine, and has a loud bird influenza. The vaccine is “it seems to be dangerous.”
Even if the second Trump administration promotes the vaccine development as the first administration, as the first administration has converged the new Coronavirus infection, is how many Americans roll the sleeves for vaccination. Unknown. Influenza usually affects children and the elderly, but pandemic influenza can attack young people most seriously. However, the distrust caused by the spread of the new colon virus infection has caused Americans to avoid precautionary measures at least.
Evolving threat
Unlike the sudden arrival of the Coronavirus, the influenza virus usually occurs in specific animal species or specific geographical areas.
When the H5n1 virus appeared in East Asia nearly 30 years ago, it gave birds mainly. In the next few years, at least 940 people were infected, and almost all of them came into contact with infected birds. About half of those people have died.
However, since the virus was detected in a wild waterfowl in the United States in January 2022, more than 1366 million commercial birds, backdrop birds, and wild birds have led to a rise in egg prices. Dozens of mammals, such as wild and domestic cat animals, raccoons, bears, and sea lions, are also being damaged.
For at least one year, the H5n1 type was infected with dairy cows, but it was not known that dairy cows are easily infected with this type of influenza. Some cows have sustainable effects, decreasing milk, increasing the possibility of natural miscarriage.
In 2024, 67 Americans were infected with the virus, but before only one in 2022. Not all of these sources are known. Some may have infected a virus on someone in the family.
Dr. James Roller, director of the Nebraska University Health and Security Global Center, said that many of these progress was a typical step to pandemic. However, he pointed out, “Even though the actions in the federal, state, and local levels should have been accelerated and expanded, we are only shrugging over their milestones,” he pointed out.
The infection on dairy farms that occurred for the first time in Texas seemed to be decreasing last summer. But in late August, California announced the first infected person. The states quickly increased, and Governor Gavin Newsum declared a public health emergency in December.
“It was a kind of signal for me, such as” OK, this has not been cured yet, “said Dr. Manisha Jutni, Secretary of the Public Health Bureau of Connecticut. “I've felt like the tempo has risen in recent months,” she said.
Some other events that have occurred have increased the level of vigilance among experts. In early December, scientists reported that a single mutation has helped virus more efficient infections on the viral human cells.
At the end of last year, a 13 -year -old Canadian girl and two people living in Louisiana, 65 or older, became seriously ill. Previously, most of the people infected with H5N1 did not experience serious symptoms. Louisiana patients had a health problem and took care of the illness and dying birds, but died in early January.
The girl was placed in a life support device for organ failure, but eventually recovered. The scientists have not yet known how she was infected. Her only danger factor was obese.
Both patients were infected with new versions of viruses, which are currently widespread in birds, different from dairy cow viruses. In both cases, the virus may be mutated during the infection process, which may increase the infectious power to people.
“It is clear that new viruses are now formed on wild birds,” says Dr. Monkura. “It is becoming difficult to manage all various threats.”
Some experts believe that viruses are particularly concerned that they are considered to be in food sources such as raw milk and raw pet food. Delineed cats in many states, recalled at least one brand of pet food, and new federal guidelines on pet food quality were issued.
“I think raw pet food is a great thing for me,” said Dr. Jeanne Marzzzo, director of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases.
Low -temperature sterilization kills living viruses, just like cooking meat at high temperatures. Still, Dr. Malazzo said neither is perfect. “There is no way to guarantee that food supply is 100 % safe, and there is no way to cracks on production and sterilization.”
Defective correspondence
One year after the pandemic began, Federal authorities have announced other measures to prevent pandemic and to prepare for pandemic. However, according to experts, each has a great flaw.
The U.S. Ministry of Agriculture has delayed the start of the H5N1 vaccine for cows, and the interested companies have become lane. Dr. Malazzo said that it has released genetic information from the virus sample but has not disclosed when and where they were collected. Details will help scientists track the evolution of viruses.
It is also unknown how many flocks are being reinfected or the infection for months. In Aidaho, some flocks that were infected in the spring seemed to have recovered, but in November they showed mild symptoms again.
A spokeswoman in charge of the Ministry of Agriculture said, “The data obtained so far does not show any evidence of new infections or reinfections in the previously affected flocks, but rather the first infection. It turned out that it was not excluded. ” However, external experts said that the progress of the symptoms suggested the second round of the disease.
The Ministry of Agriculture's Bulk Milk Test Program began in December, almost a year after the spread of infection, but has not yet been included. The involvement of private companies can help promoting programs quickly.
Ginko BioWorks, a company in cooperation with federal agencies during the new colon virus pandemic, has already evaluated bacteria, antibiotics, and other substances for about half of the domestic commercial milk supply.
It's easy to add H5n1 to the list, so why not just add an assay to this already infrastructure? “
Earlier this month, the Biden administration has announced a new $ 36 billion funding, but about one -third will be used to monitor, test, and support farmers.
However, farm workers in some places, such as Texas Pan Handles, have not yet known what bird flu is, how they spread, and why bird flu is important for us. Research and Public Health Program Officer Besany Alcoter, the Farm Worker Health Center, said.
As a result, many workers, including milk parlors, who are believed to have viruses, are still wearing protective clothing.
Human tests have been conducted voluntarily, and infectious diseases have been overlooked. Few farmers have chosen to be tested for the immigration officer or their employer.
Devolla Berks, a coordinator of the White House Coronavirus under Trump, said, “You can't find it unless you search?” “This is not related to rockdown or activity restrictions, which is to protect American individuals by giving information.”
