At a time when everyone is confused by contradictory polls and statistical connections, Donald Trump's campaign is unusually confident.
Kamala Harris' surgery is also a reason for optimism, as is the news that the late decider is more than 10% ahead of her course. However, she still plays herself as the underdog. Her appearance on “SNL” doesn't change that. President Trump also did not say that RFK's plan to remove fluoride from water, a major public health advance, “seems fine to me.”
This comes despite anti-Trump supporters imploring their supporters to run for vice president, including MSNBC's Nicole Wallace asking her former boss George W. Bush to publicly endorse Harris. Most people in the media, both public and private, believe that Trump will win.
The climax of the campaign appears to be built around a huge gender gap, with Kamala doing far better among women and Trump far better among men.
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As former President Trump and Vice President Harris head out for a photo op on Election Day, morale in one camp is clearly much higher than the other. (AP)
The Trump campaign believes that registration numbers based on mail-in voting give Republicans an advantage in swing states that will decide the election. Nearly half the country has already voted.
Let's take Pennsylvania, an important state, as an example. In 2020, the Democratic Party held a 7.5% advantage, but the lead has now narrowed to 3 points.
Additionally, only 39% of Democrats have ever voted, compared to 49% of Republicans.
Tom Bonnier, a Democratic strategist appearing on MSNBC, said Pennsylvania's voters are far more Republican and far more male than last time.
Harris needs a large turnout in Philadelphia to carry the state, and many reports say she still struggles to win the support of some black men.
Trump World says in-person voting (which tends to favor the former president) is outperforming mail-in voting (which tends to favor Democrats) in Wisconsin. Trump's strength is among male, white, and rural voters. So just like in Philadelphia, Harris will have to perform well in Milwaukee and Madison to carry the state.
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Michigan, which Rep. Debbie Dingell recently told me was “a problem,” remains a mystery because it doesn't track party registration. So the ballgame there could dictate how well Harris does in Detroit.
The Trump campaign sees a similar advantage in battleground states such as Georgia and North Carolina, which polls show is a close race but could give Harris an even bigger chance of victory. This election will really ignite the fire in the three blue wall states.
Perhaps Harris should have chosen Josh Shapiro?
Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Lititz, Pennsylvania, on Sunday, November 3. The Trump campaign appears confident of victory based on early in-person voting, which outweighs the mail-in votes that lean heavily toward Democrats. region. (AP/Matt Rourke)
In one major state after another, local black leaders are on record saying they are concerned about red flags in their communities.
POLITICO: “Milwaukee lags the rest of the state by about 7 percentage points in both mail return rates and turnout among registered voters overall. This is partly due to the Harris campaign's outlook. It's a sign that even Democrats are secretly warning that Wisconsin's rural counties will skyrocket their scores with urban and suburban voters to overcome them. ”
Atlanta Capital B: Black voter turnout in Georgia has fallen from “more than 29 percent” on the first day of early voting to “about 25 percent…This is bad news for Harris…”
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“Elected leaders and political observers say Democrats generally need to reach 30 percent black voter turnout to secure victory in Georgia's statewide elections.”
Charlotte Observer: “As of Wednesday, Black voters cast 207,000 fewer votes than they did four years ago, a drop of almost 40 percent.”
“I'm concerned about turnout in Detroit. I think it's real,” Jamal Simmons, a former Harris aide, told ABC.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to reporters after speaking at a service at Greater Emmanuel Institutional Church of God in Detroit, Sunday, Nov. 3, 2024. . Jamal Simmons, Harris' former city representative, told ABC he was “concerned about turnout” in the Motor City. (AP Photo/Jacqueline Martin)
This Politico article takes a more positive view, saying that polls appear to be underestimating Harris' support.
The article says that given the aggressive nature of the campaign, “shy Trump supporters” who don't want to tell pollsters who they support are a thing of the past.
Instead, many “forgotten” Harris voters, especially Republicans who are dissatisfied with their own party, namely Nikki Haley voters, are being missed in the polls.
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Politico cited a national poll showing that 66% of those who voted for Haley in the 2016 primary supported Trump, but that dropped to 59% four years ago and an estimated 45% this time around. That's what it means. “Meanwhile, support for Democratic presidential candidates has nearly tripled, from just 13% supporting Hillary Clinton in 2016 to 36% saying they intend to vote for Kamala Harris.”
To which I say: Who the hell knows?
Ahead of tomorrow's election, polling agencies are currently analyzing polls to determine which ones are out of line. And, as the cliché goes, it all depends on turnout. Despite raising $1 billion, Ms. Harris' candidacy will sink if some of her potential supporters stay home.
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The scenario favored by the Trump team is based primarily on party registration, not polling, which has been off the mark in the past two cycles.
This explains why the former president feels more confident, even as he asks his advisers if they really believe he will win.
