President Trump is planning to move on Saturdays with intense tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, further pressure on the largest trading partner in the United States, accepts domestic residents, and stops the flow of immigrants and drugs. I'm trying to put pressure on.
On Friday's New Briefing, the White House spokeswoman Caroline Ribit will introduce a 25 % tariff on Mexico, 25 % of Canada, and 10 % from China. I mentioned.
Levit said that the president has chosen tariffs because all three countries have “all illegal drugs can pour into the United States.”
“The amount of Fentanyl, which has been seized at the southern border in recent years, could kill tens of millions of Americans,” she said. “And the president is going to do this.”
Customs duties could start a destructive trade war as seen in Trump's first term, but is much larger.
Mexico, China, and Canada account for more than one -third of the products and services imported or purchased to the United States, supporting tens of millions of US employment.
All three governments have promised to answer Trump's taxation on US exports, such as Florida Range Juice, Tennessy Whiskey, and Kentucky peanut butter.
Customs duties quickly raise the cost of importers that bring products across borders. If the importer chooses not to pay for tariffs, it can confuse the supply chain and lead to a shortage of products. And in the long term, companies can choose to give costs to American consumers, raise prices, and delay the economy.
Similarly, Mr. Trump's desire to attack tariffs on issues that have little to do with trade use powerful economic tools to focus on his domestic policy agenda, especially illegal immigrants. Show the president's willingness.
“Trump's tariff threats are mere intense, and negotiations have collapsed under his severe reality that tariffs will develop tariffs as a tool that shifts other countries to his taste.” Swal Prasado, the professor of Cornel's trade policy, said. University.
In November, Trump said in November that 25 % of the immigrants and drugs, especially Fentanyl, will be included in Canada and Mexico and 10 % in China.
This threat caused scramble from Canada and Mexican officials. He spoke with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at the last minute and tried to persuade the government to refrain from tariffs by detailed the efforts of the border police.
Automobile and energy companies are pushing the White House and the government to prevent tariffs.
According to those who are familiar with the plan, Mr. Trump's advisor has compared various scenarios, such as tariffs applied to specific sectors such as steel and aluminum, and taxation that has been announced but not for several months. I did it.
“I don't want to see American duties on both sides of the border on both sides of the border,” said Canadian Prime Minister Justin Prime Minister Trudeau. He added, “As the United States goes ahead, Canada is ready and ready to respond.”
Mexico's President Claudia Symbaum told the reporters on Friday that the Mexican government had been working for a month to respond to potential tariffs. “We are preparing for every scenario,” she said before Levit's briefing. Mexico added, “We are doing everything with our power” to prevent tariffs. “What do we want? The dialogue with that respect wins.”
At both boundaries, the number of illegal crossing decreased sharply.
The number of fraudulent intersections at the crop border in December 2023 reached nearly 250,000, overwhelming border patrols, and the government closed the port. At the northern border, the flow of immigrants, which rises illegally in 2024, rose illegally. Meanwhile, more than 23,000 arrests were arrested for illegally intersection. The figure was about 2,000.
Since then, the border situation has changed.
In December, the agent arrested about 47,000 at the tropical border and 510 at the north border.
Talking from an elliptical office on Thursday, Trump suggested that he is ready to block imports from Canada and Mexico, the closest ally in the United States.
“We will announce the tariffs of Canada and Mexico for some reasons,” he said. “I will have 25 % of tariffs in Canada and 25 % in Mexico separately. We really have to do so.”
“I don't need what they have,” said Trump. He added that the tariff rate could rise over time, suggesting that tariffs could not be applied to petroleum import. This is a decision that can avoid sharply rising gasoline prices.
The United States is the world's largest petroleum producer, but the refinery needs to mix lighter oil produced in domestic fields from a place like Canada to make fuel like gasoline and diesel. There is. Approximately 60 % of the oil imported by the United States comes from Canada, and about 7 % come from Mexico.
According to Tom KLOZA, a global energy analysis manager of petroleum price information service, when fuel producers respond to tariffs by reducing production, the gasoline price in the midwestern part rises to 15 to 20 cents, and other parts. There is more effect of suppression. country.
The potential economic impact of tariffs complicates the problem of the federal preparation system. The Federal Reserve is trying to keep inflation into 2 % goals. This week's Fed stabilized interest rates after a series of reductions in questions about how sustainable inflation and tariffs develop.
The economic radioactivity from tariffs depends on how they were structured, but the ripple effects could be wider. Canada, Mexico, and the United States have been managed by trade agreements for over 30 years, and many industries, from cars, apparel to agriculture, are very integrated throughout North America.
Peterson International Economic Research Institute's Senior Fellow Mary Lovely stated that the tariff was “very expensive.”
The US factory depends on the inputs from both countries, such as Canadian minerals, wood, and Mexican automotive parts. The tariffs may be contrary to the promotion of Trump and the Biden administration, and the efforts of US companies have recently been out of China.
According to S & P Global's economists, Mexico's automobile and electrical equipment sector will be the most exposed to interruption, as in the case of mineral treatment in Canada. In the United States, the biggest risks are in agriculture, fisheries, metal, and automotive departments.
Mr. Trump emphasizes tariff abilities to protect domestic manufacturers. However, in balance, most economists hope that fresh trade barriers will increase the price of US companies and households, which can lead to temporary bursts. Whether or not to escalate to more harmful issues depends on whether Americans' expectations in the future inflation are starting to change higher in a meaningful way.
As time goes on, economists warn the economists are worried about the impact on growth, and that trade tension is more likely to lead to decreased investment, more modest business activities, and slow growth.
Urnie Tedesti, the director of the Yale Budget Lab, has a 25 % tariff of all imports in Canada and Mexico (10 % of tariffs and pairs for all Chinese imports), a permanent price. It is estimated to lead to a 0.8 % bump. , Measured by personal consumption expenditure price index. This is equivalent to about $ 1,300 for households. These estimates assume that the target countries will enact retaliation measures and the federal preparation system will not take action by adjusting interest rates.
Tadeski hopes that inflation will ultimately reduce the total domestic production by 0.2 %.
Trump's top economic adviser argued that tariffs promoted inflation. In a press conference, Reebit said that, despite the charges of tariffs, the inflation remained in Trump's first term. She said that the president has undergone other policies that reduce inflation, such as passing tax cuts and promoting energy production.
In this month's confirmation hearing, Mr. Scott Bessent has rejected Mr. Trump's concerns about Trump's Democratic Party, suggesting that exporters such as China will face higher tariffs in the United States. Masu. Mr. Vessent said that if tariffs were gradually introduced last year, it was wise, and that the related “price adjustments” could be gradually absorbed by the economy.
Trump's Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutonic, accepted tariffs in his confirmation hearing and pushed back to the concept of promoting inflation. He suggested that if Canada and Mexico closed the borders to Fentanil, Trump could avoid the hanging tariff.
Lutonic claims that China is the most effective, claiming that Europe, Japan, and South Korea also treat the US industry in unfairness, and the “full” tariffs in the country are most effective. He said he believed.
“We need to end that rude. I think customs duties are a way to create mutualism, fairly handle, and treat them properly,” Lutonic said.
Hamed Aleaziz, Vjosa ISAI, and Emilianorodríguezmega have contributed to the report.
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