For a legion of Vietnamese factory workers, the mathematics for living was complicated enough before they could somehow announce tariffs on the products they make.
Nguyen Thi Tuyet Hanh worked in two factories six days a week for almost a year after her husband lost his job in 2023.
“It was cruel,” said Han, 40. Her husband is once again working full-time at the factory, but Trump's plans to impose a 46% tariff on imports from Vietnam live in a series of concrete tenements on the outskirts of Ho Chi Minh City.
“My family has overcome that difficult time and I don't want to live it again,” said Han, who earns $577 a month as a line manager overseeing 138 workers who make shoes for French sports goods company Salomon and other global brand Nike.
The horror echoes on her factory floors, living in the ham of sewing the fabric for shoes that are shipped to the US. Trump suspended Vietnam's tariffs similar to those in dozens of other countries for 90 days. But it's hardly important here. The prospect of destabilisation as tariffs revived is already falling into Vietnam's economic growth, which is dependent on making things for American consumers.
Vietnamese textile and garment factories have a paper-like thin profit margin. It averages 5%, executives said. And while some of them have increased production to push orders ahead of the July tariff deadline, others have begun cutting jobs or hiring them as American retailers begin to cancel orders.
No country has grown as a manufacturing economy in the last 15 years as much as Vietnam. But during that time, it also has increasingly relied on demand from the US, contributing to more than a quarter of the economy last year.
“Everyone is now in great uncertainty,” said Trang Nu Tung, chairman of Than Kong, the Vietnamese clothing manufacturer that operates in five locations. Those 6,000 workers make clothing for Eddie Bauer, New Balance, Adidas and others.
Tung's clients in the US began asking Thanh Cong to lower the price. “This is a huge pressure for the company because the profit margins are very low,” he said.
As soon as the tariffs were announced, Tankong's management team began discussing other regions where goods could be sold, such as the Middle East and Europe. The company has also spoken with American customers to make sure it can afford a large amount of new import tax.
“I don't want to fire people,” Tung said. “We're trying everything to keep people here.”
Tankon received requests from some of its American retail customers to increase production. The company is trying to respond to that. Tun is optimistic that his government can sign a contract with the Trump administration. Anything that both countries have settled is important to the future of his business.
Hours after Trump announced mutual tariffs in almost 60 Vietnam's top leaders, he called him and offered to reduce tariffs on American imports to zero, urging the US to follow. He then wrote to Trump, demanding a meeting with the Washington president at the end of May, “we will come to a joint agreement.”
Tung, who is also vice-president of the Vietnam Textile Association, said breakpoints at most factories would be a final tariff, well over 20%.
Vietnamese clothing is currently taxed at almost 28%. This includes the existing tariffs of about 18% on all clothing in Vietnam, plus the 10% new tariffs placed on all countries by the Trump administration on April 2. A final tariff of over 20% will eat deeply into the profits of both the factory and its customers.
“In this scenario, factories need to reduce their net profits, large buyers from the US need to reduce margins, and consumers have to pay more for clothing,” he said.
Things look bad for Vietnam, but there is hope that they are better than their neighbors in China in the north. China's losses could be in Vietnam's profits. But failing to significantly lower the 46% figure would be a calculation moment for the thousands of Vietnamese companies that make things ship to the US.
For Mean Apparel, it's uncertainty that worries me the most. Seven factories and two laundry facilities, mainly in northern Vietnam, employ 12,000 workers who make swimsuits, jeans and jackets for brands such as Costco, J.C. Penny, Carter, Target, Gap, and Walmart.
“Uncertainty is not good for the business,” said Vu Manh Hung, Associate Chief Operating Officer at Mian Apparel. The client is urging him to deliver the goods faster. The factory is finding other ways to take on more workers and produce more ways before the 90-day suspension ends with customs duties.
Tran Quang, an executive at Candle and Home Fragrance Company, said there was no need to fire workers at three factories in his company.
But he's worried because it's usually his company's peak season and he demanded not to name him. This is when his factory fills Christmas season orders. Instead of hiring more workers, as he normally does around this time, Quang is holding tight.
Approximately 90% of his company's customers are in the United States. In the weeks since the tariffs were announced, he had heard nothing from them. I was worried because orders are usually weekly. Recently, some clients are beginning to cancel orders, while others are holding back new ones.
Some experts say the Trump administration can extend the suspension of tariffs if the US and Vietnam are unable to reach an agreement.
For factories and their workers, this would be as bad as high tariffs.
“If there is uncertainty, customers may redirect their supply chain,” Quang said. “Why do they need to wait another 90 days? What if the outcome is bad?”
