Ukraine and Russia have agreed to have the details of stopping the fight in the Black Sea and stopping strikes at energy facilities, the White House said Tuesday that it was the first important step into a ceasefire three years after the full-scale Russian infringement.
However, the deal lacks a complete suspension in the battle, with Trump administration officials pushing on, and it remains unclear when and how such a limited ceasefire will be carried out, or which side of its commitment. Last week, Russia and Ukraine agreed, in principle, to halt attacks on energy facilities, but quickly accused them of continuing such strikes.
Ukrainian President Volodim Zelensky told reporters on Tuesday. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov added that “additional technical consultations” were needed as soon as possible to carry out the deal.
And while both Ukraine and Russia confirmed the agreement that came after three days of intense negotiations in Saudi Arabia, Moscow added an important warning. In a statement, the Kremlin said it would respect the maritime security portion of the transaction only after the invasion began in 2022 and after the Western countries removed restrictions imposed on Russian agricultural exports.
The White House pledged in a statement that “it will help restore Russia's access to the global market for agricultural and fertilizer exports.”
Zelensky complained that the provision was “a weakening of position and weakening of sanctions.” Additionally, European Union approval is required to lift restrictions on Russian agricultural exports, which is unlikely at this time.
Even amidst uncertainty, the White House's willingness to surrender to Russia's demands over Ukraine's opposition was the latest indication of President Trump's increased consistency with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin. Trump has long complained without evidence of political persecution during the Justice Department's investigation into Russian interference in the US election, and has refused to say that Russia has invaded Ukraine and started the war in recent weeks.
Trump administration officials have expressed interest in significantly improving US relations with Russia. In a summary of the call between Trump and Putin last week, executives said they agreed that improved relationships “have great benefits” including “the enormous economic transactions and geopolitical stability when peace is achieved.”
The US administration has changed dramatically about Russia, the annual review of the global threats of the US Intelligence Agency, released Tuesday, but Russia saw it as “a lasting threat to US power, existence and global interests.” The report found that Russia was dominant in its invasion and had greater leverage to report on Ukraine and its supporters.
Deep distrust between Russia and Ukraine has continued, with US mediators meeting separately with delegations from both sides of the Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh. After the speech was over, the White House issued two statements that it had made separate transactions with each of its maritime and energy attacks.
To secure the agreement, the White House appeared to have provided guarantees on each side of the important requirements. In addition to Russia's agricultural interests, the White House reaffirmed its commitment to some of Ukraine's long-standing demands, including “the exchange of prisoners, the release of civil detainees, and the return of forced Ukrainian children.”
The agreement may be a breakthrough in the White House efforts to reach a ceasefire, even limited in Ukraine after three years of full-scale war, but they did not seem to extract any major concessions from Russia. Shutting down energy facilities and security in the Black Sea are two goals the Kremlin has pursued and deemed beneficial.
Moreover, it appeared that Moscow had decided to escalate on its own terms. The Kremlin said it would not comply with a limited halt of hostilities in the Black Sea unless the state's agricultural banks and other financial institutions involved in the food trade are reconnected to the international payment system, and unless Western companies recover delivery of agricultural equipment to Russia. He also said he hopes that sanctions will be lifted on ships and food trade, as well as restrictions imposed on Russian fertilizers and food producers.
If the US meets Russia's demands, it will be the first step to lifting sanctions on the Russian economy.
Putin portrays himself as an open demand to the United States to end the battle, but he rejected previous US proposals accepted by Ukraine for a complete and immediate 30-day ceasefire.
Putin said a wider ceasefire should include halting Western military aid to Ukraine and its mobilization efforts. It said it was two conditions that are Ukraine's non-stars and is evidence that the Kremlin wanted to continue the war.
A partial ceasefire will begin and it is still unclear whether it will be retained. The strikes on energy facilities were central to each side's efforts to undermine the others during the war. Russia is slamming the Ukrainian power grid, aiming to make life unbearable for civilians, especially during the frigid winters, hindering Kiev's war efforts. Ukraine repeatedly struck Russian oil facilities in an attempt to suffocate revenues that promoted Moscow's military operations.
Against this background, a ceasefire on an energy strike could benefit both countries. It would give Ukraine time to repair its abused energy networks, and Moscow no longer needs to contest further damage to its important oil facilities.
However, Russia may benefit more from a ceasefire in the Black Sea. There, repeated Ukrainian attacks have forced the navy to retreat over the past year.
Both countries rely on the Black Sea to export goods. In mid-2022, they brokered a transaction that allowed Ukraine to ship grain to the sea, but Russia withdrew from the agreement a year later, claiming that Western sanctions were severely restricting their ability to export agricultural products.
Russia then aims to threaten Ukraine and all commercial vessels coming and going, strangle the maritime exports. In response, the Ukrainian forces launched a campaign to drive the Russian navy out of the western part of the Black Sea, destroy many of its warships, and strike the headquarters of Crimea, occupied by Russia. This operation allowed Ukraine to establish a new transport corridor in the Black Sea, bringing coastal grain exports back to almost the contour level.
Umerov, Ukrainian defense minister, said under the contract “all movement of Russian military vessels outside the eastern Black Sea constitutes a violation of the spirit of this contract,” and that Ukraine “has the full right to properly exercise its right to defend itself.”
A White House statement said that both Russia and Ukraine have “consented to eliminate the use of force in the Black Sea.” However, it was not immediately clear whether the transaction included a halt of a strike for the port infrastructure. Ukrainian officials said such provisions were raised during consultations. They also show interest in resuming commercial operations in frontline Ukrainian port cities such as Mykolaiv and Kherson, which were forced to close due to nearby combat.
Andri Klemenko, head of the Black Sea Strategy Institute, said they are very skeptical of the two parties implementing the maritime agreement. “The parties' intentions are the exact opposite,” he wrote on Facebook, saying that Kiev had tried to stop Russian strikes on port infrastructure, but that Moscow wanted to recover the grain trade in 2022, when Moscow controlled some degree of commercial transport in the Black Sea.
Erica L. Green and Julian E. Burns contributed to the report from Washington.
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