The Ukrainian Navy patrol boat zipped across the Black Sea, and its double-fired 25mm machine gun was locked onto the horizon. The enemy Russia was nowhere to be seen, but it was always there. In the Command Room, Captain Mikhailo and his crew scanned the screen, marking water containing Russian mines and red arrows, tracking drones roaming the area.
The crew's mission was to protect the water from Odesa, Ukraine's largest Black Seaport City, and keep it safe for commercial traffic. It was a tough job – clearing up Russian mines during the day and shooting drones down in the middle of the night – but after more than a year of patrol alongside other Ukrainian naval vessels, they succeeded.
The Russian Navy is pushed far from the Ukrainian coast, allowing commercial transport in Ukraine to rebound to levels close to the previous period. On Tuesday, the fruits of Captain Muhailo's efforts came to fruition on the horizon. The 740-foot Panama-style boat silhouette glides towards the Ukrainian port and loads grain.
“Big ship. Nice,” said My Cairo Daitain. He told the terms that only his name and rank would be used in line with Ukrainian military rules.
Kiev and Moscow committed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea during separate consultations via the US last month, but Ukraine's military and commercial achievements in these waters have led many in Odesa to reflect on this question.
Despite the ceasefire commitment, the country is still negotiating whether or how it will come into effect. And Odesa's naval officers and employers used this delay to weigh the pros and cons of the transaction. A ceasefire may not spare the port from Russian drone and missile strikes, but that could also mean that it would probably abandon Ukraine's strategic advantages in the sea, the only area of the battlefield where it has an advantage.
“I don't want a ceasefire,” said Tariel Khajishvili, head of Novik LLC, a Ukrainian shipping agent operating in Odesa. “The only aspect of wanting a ceasefire is Russia because they no longer control the Black Sea.”
Ukrainian skepticism is only deepening under the conditions of a Moscow ceasefire. Elimination of Western economic sanctions and a return to previous UN collateral transactions that allowed Russia to control commercial vessels leaving Ukrainian ports for weapons inspection – Kiyif's non-star request.
“Why do we need to make concessions now? We have effectively closed the Black Sea,” Pablo Palisa, senior military adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymiazelensky, told reporters last week, pointing out that Kiev had managed to push Russian ships out of key parts of the ocean.
Deep distrust also persists among countries. In principle, both sides agree to temporarily suspend strikes against energy infrastructure, simply denounce each other for violations.
It remains unclear whether a ceasefire will occur in the Black Sea. Ukrainian military officials have noted that Russia has refrained from attacking Ukrainian ports since last month's talks, consistent with one of Kiev's main demands, but warn that it is too early to call an armistice.
The ability of Ukraine to refusal to a ceasefire in the Black Sea speaks volumes of the dramatic changes in the property there.
Shortly after Russia began its full-scale invasion three years ago, the naval ship was within 15 miles of the Ukrainian coast, close enough to fire directly. Captain Mykhailo, 27, recalled the strike that “destroyed a reconnaissance station” in the southern outskirts of Odesa. In the city, residents filled sandbags to enhance their defensive status and dressed up for assault.
Russia did not violate Odesa. However, the navy controls the Black Sea enough to cut off Ukrainian ports, and Ukraine is a major grain exporter, suffocating the country's economy and threatening global food security.
An unrecorded contract in July 2022 has reopened the transport corridor for Ukrainian exports, but only under a transaction that allows Russia to inspect all commercial vessels for weapons. Kiev said Moscow intentionally delayed testing in order to strangle trade. A year later, I didn't use the hallway every month.
Russia withdrew its contract in July 2023 and now complained about the same economic sanctions, threatening all commercial vessels headed to and from Ukraine.
To resume exports, Ukraine launched a campaign to drive back the Russian Black Sea Fleet, using sea drones and missiles to destroy or damage more than a quarter of its major warships. The attack forced the Russian fleet to retreat to the eastern part of the sea, far from the Ukrainian coast, allowing Ukraine to secure a new shipping corridor embracing the coast before entering the territory of NATO members.
Captain Mykhailo said his patrol vessel (an island-class ship donated by the US in 2021) will “provide safety from the mines from Russian air attacks” along with a commercial vessel sailing from the Ukrainian coast.
Now more ships are passing through new corridors than unsupported contracts. Black seafood exports are also approaching frontline levels. Last year, Ukraine shipped 42 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds, according to data compiled by Ukrainian investment firm Dragon Capital.
Against this backdrop, experts see little benefit from Ukraine in the Black Sea ceasefire.
As Russia has requested, a return to a non-supporting agreement could “reverse all success in the Ukrainian corridor protected by the Ukrainian military, especially if ship inspections have been reintroduced,” said Natalia Shptigotska, senior analyst at Dragon Capital. “I don't know why Ukraine should accept it,” she added. “That doesn't make sense.”
All Ukraine could come from a ceasefire, and will be the end of the Russian strike at its port, experts say. These attacks damaged several ships and destroyed numerous containers and grain silos. According to Yurii Vaskov, former Ukraine Deputy Minister of Infrastructure, the export capacity of Odesa's port fell by up to 20% in the second half of 2023.
“For Ukraine, a ceasefire in the Black Sea primarily means stopping attacks on the port infrastructure, allowing grain corridors to operate without confusion,” said Colonel Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian Navy.
“There is no better Russia can offer us with this agreement,” he said in an interview with Odesa.
However, the offer was not found in a White House statement that announced the Black Sea ceasefire last month.
Andri Klimenko, head of the Black Sea Strategy Institute, said he has not previously hoped that both parties will establish a maritime ceasefire considering conflicting demands. He suspects Russia would like to use the armistice to return parts of the ship to the central part of the Black Sea.
Returning to the boat at Mykhailo Greattain, the ceasefire still feels as far away as ever. Machine gun round iron boxes are ready for use on deck. On Tuesday night, crews empty some of them and fired Russian drones straining towards Odesa and its suburbs.
“Unfortunately we were unable to defeat them,” Mikhailo Daitain said, according to Ukrainian authorities.
“For me, nothing will change,” he added. “I'm fighting like usual.”
Daria Mitiuk, Oleksandr Chubko and Maria Varenikova contributed the report.
