According to analysts, the ceasefire between Gaza and Lebanon was tested to the limit over the weekend, but is likely to be maintained for the time being. Because both sides want to avoid full -fledged battles for at least a few weeks.
In the southern part of Lebanon, Israel claims that Hizbola has broken its promise from the area, and the Israeli army remained on Sunday withdrawal. In Gaza, Hamas could not release the female hostage that was expected to release Israel on Saturday, so that Israel delayed the agreement with the agreed refugee Palestinians to northern Gaza's hometown.
However, analysts said that both were blamed the opponent, but both Israel and their opposition have a flexible attitude and temporarily miss the violation of the opponent.
Hizbola is angry at Israel, where the army is stationed in southern Lebanon, but there is a risk of being devastated by Israel if it resumes rocket attacks in Israel. Hamas hopes to maintain power in Gaza, and there is a risk of losing power if the war recurs. And Israel needs to maintain the current agreement in Gaza for a sufficient period to release at least 24 hostages. Israeli leaders are also eager to soothe President Trump, who has been elected to maintaining peace in the Middle East.
Israel and Hamas, looking for an extension of the Gaza ceasefire, seemed to have resolved the weekend crisis near midnight on Sunday. The Qatar government, both sides, has announced that the hostage female Alberel Jefd will be released this week, and the other two will be released ahead of schedule. Israel has announced that it will allow refugee Palestinians to return to northern Gaza on Monday morning.
Regarding Lebanon, there was no immediate comment from Israel or Hizbura, but the White House announced that it would extend the truce in Lebanon until February 18. Lebanon has acknowledged the extension.
“They will survive for the next few weeks, but no one can expect anybody,” said a former US -friendly negotiator Aaron David Miller in the Middle East Peace negotiations.
“These are not an agreement between the United States and Switzerland. These are agreements that rely on both sides to give certainty rights and maneuvering,” he added. “It's their weaknesses, but also their strengths.”
Despite the fact that the Israeli army fired and killed those who are still trying to return to the area where Israel is dominated by Lebanon and Gaza, thanks to this wriggling room, the ceasefire in both countries will eventually survive the weekend. I was able to do it.
The Ministry of Lebanon announced that 22 people had died due to a fire in Israel in southern Lebanon, and Palestinian Autonomous Government Communications in Palestine A large crowds gathered near the Israeli army in search of returning in the Gaza area. He said he died.
However, by the morning of Monday, the conflict in Gaza seemed to be alleviated. Lebanon issued a statement in Lebanon, praised the residents trying to return, and called for foreign powers to withdraw Israel. However, Hizbora did not resume the rocket attack.
Analysts have stated that hizvola is unlikely to cause further losses as Hizbola's leadership has fallen and the benefactor Iran is weakened. In addition, Syrian's ally, Syrian President Bushal Al Assad, was expelled by the anti -government forces in December, and the main weapon supply route of the organization through Syria was cut off.
Hizbola commander said, “Hizbola still has rockets and guns,” said Hanin Gadal, a Lebanon analyst of the Washington Near East Policy Research Institute.
“But what they do is suicide, because of Israel's opportunity to fight back and annihilate what is left to them. Because I know, Ms. Gadar has added it.
Gadar said that Hizbora was also alert to the loss of the support of the Islamic Shiere supporting layer, especially in the next year's parliamentary election. Lebanon's Shiite community has paid the biggest price to the hizvola decision of starting a war against Israel in October 2023 in a solidarity with allies Hamas. The Shiites and towns in southern Lebanon were standing on the subsequent air operations and terrestrial invasion by Israel.
“If the Shiites don't vote for them, this is the end,” said Ms. Gadar, the author of the book about the relationship between Hizbola and its base. “If you don't know 100 % of the Shiites community supporting them, they can't actually do anything.”
Hizbola is considered to be the most vulnerable among the two ceasefire agreements, as Hizbola is unlikely to resume battle.
However, the biggest stress test is not expected until early March, when Hamas and Israel must extend the agreement beyond the first 42 -day ceasefire period.
For now, Israel has indicated that he wants to maintain a ceasefire to maintain the flow of hostage liberation. But the extension must agree to end the permanent end of the war, but Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems to be reluctant to cross the bridge. Netanyahu's coalition administration depends on the far -right member of the Diet for Gaza permanent rule by Israel, and the administration may collapse if Hamas still holds the government.
The contract conditions have some flexibility. As long as both sides continue to negotiate the agreement, the ceasefire can continue over 42 days.
But Israeli officials have stated that, especially if Hamas stopped being released hostage, they would not be restrained endlessly barren negotiations. And without Israel's promise to stop hostility forever, Hamas is unlikely to continue to release the hostage, a major negotiating material.
“Hamas wants a ceasefire, but it doesn't matter what sacrifice, “They want a ceasefire to end the war.”
There is a possibility that President Trump's willingness to soothe Netaniyahu for a more permanent ceasefire may be. Trump's personal message to Prime Minister Israel was extremely important in building an early stage, but it is not yet known whether the US President will maintain his position for more than a few weeks.
“If Prime Minister Netanyafu succeeded in persuading President Trump to resume the war, the war will probably resume,” Absada said. “If you keep the promise that President Trump does not want any war, it is different if you want more peace, whether it is Gaza, Ukraine, or all over the world.”
