Last month, the Golden Globes portrayed a 10.1 million viewers. No, wait, maybe 9.3 million.
On the same night, Sunday Night Football attracted 28.5 million people. It hurt, and it was probably 25.8 million.
The finale of “Yellowstone”? Probably 11 million – or 8 million?
The rating has long been the currency of the TV business and has helped me determine the amount of media companies that can be billed for commercials. But the $60 billion advertisers spend on television each year depends heavily on a shared leap in faith that numbers are as good as gold.
But that faith lies on the shaking ground.
People are now seeing it in so many different ways, at so many different times, from antennas, cables, apps, or websites, and in so many different ways, live, recorded or on demand . An industry that agrees with the best ways to measure your audience. In some cases, media executives and advertisers are unsure whether a competitor's show is a hit or even something else.
With Netflix becoming prominent, scrambling to organize the right solutions began nearly a decade ago. It has been strengthened ever since.
“It's more confusing than ever,” said George Ivy, chief executive of the Media Rating Council, a leading industry measurement watchdog.
For decades, there has been no controversy – Nielsen's measurements were the only game in town.
But after streaming services such as Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime Video emerged, things started lying down. Nielsen didn't have the ability to measure the number of people who clicked on play on these apps, at least initially. Of course, streamers knew exactly how many people were watching on their services, but they either selectively disclose some data or did not release it at all.
Over the past two years, almost all major streaming services have introduced ads, so we have released more data. However, the data they release makes comparing apples and apps difficult.
Netflix discloses what the shows call “Hourseed” and “Views.” Prime Video and Max prefer to explain how many “viewers” have seen their choice hits.
Disclosures help you compare shows, which are the same streaming service, with other shows. However, these numbers can also lead to differences of opinion.
We're taking on the new Amazon Prime Video Reality series “Beast Games,” starring YouTube personality Mrbeast. Amazon said the show had accumulated “over 50 million viewers” in its first 25 days, making it the least viewed non-scripted series on streamers.
However, the industry newsletter, the Entertainment Strategy Man, recently tallied data from a wide range of third-party measurement groups to reach another conclusion. In a post that analyses US audiences, the newsletter consolidated statistics from Nielsen, YouTube, Google Trends, IMDB and more.
Newsletter conclusion? The show “is not a hit. No matter what data you look at, how you cut it – it's not a flop or a bomb.”
Buyed by Private Equity in 2022, Nielsen has long relied on thousands of households across the country, estimating what can be seen on a one-minute television network on hundreds of television networks. A group of households, Nielsen called the panel, has installed equipment at home, and these numbers are used to estimate ratings for different demographic groups that break down numbers by age, income, gender and race. It will be used.
However, during the pandemic, some of the households it tracked were unable to receive service by Nielsen technicians who were given stay-at-home orders, and the panels deteriorated rapidly. In 2021, the Media Ratings Council stripped the company of its certification, a seal of approval that was closely monitored by the media and the advertising industry.
Rival Nielsen Upstarts, including companies such as VideoMamp, Samba, Ispot, ComScore, and Luminate, have begun to snag.
Some startups rely on what is called big data, using intelligence from set-top boxes and smart TVs to maximize rating estimates.
“They're bringing minors to the AI battle,” said Peter Liguori, a longtime media executive and executive chairman of Videoamp. “They move the beads from one side to the other, and we use technology, big data and AI machine learning to create the most sophisticated, best faithful and reliable measurement systems. .”
A spokesman for Nielsen said: Nielsen has used its own machine learning and advanced artificial intelligence for many years. ”
VideoAmp was shot in the arm when cable networks such as Paramount+ Streaming app owners, MTV and Comedy Central, were caught up in an extension contract dispute with Nielsen.
Paramount complained that Nielsen's prices were too high, saying that the measurement company's fees exceeded advertising revenue for some of the cable channels. Nielsen can bill a medium-sized media company about $50 million a year, with its prices likely to rise to $300 million a year for much larger companies.
Paramount's pivot to VideoAmp caused disruption in the industry. After Golden Globes, CBS announced that 10.1 million people had watched the show, citing Videoamp data. A day later, Nielsen said only 9.3 million people had been adjusted.
Last Monday, Paramount ended its four-month standoff with Nielsen, signing a new contract, saying it was “incredibly pleased” to do so.
Nielsen said it took necessary steps to adapt to the new media situation. We currently publish all types of streaming rating data. And it won the Media Rating Council's seal of approval in 2023. Last month, in a move the company described as an important step, Nielsen earned certification for what it called “Big Data + Panel” measurements. Complement panel measurements of 42,000 households using intelligence from set-top boxes and smart TVs. (VideoAmp has not yet been certified by the Rating Council.)
“In a world where there is so much data and so many opportunities for people to drive their own stories, I think Nielsen is more important than ever,” says Michel Gelman, senior vice president of products at Nielsen. states.
Industry analyst Brian Wieser said there has been a long-awaited desire among advertisers to find alternatives to Nielsen, but the majority of transactions use Nielsen data.
“Many marketers have been unhappy with Nielsen for a long time. Among many stakeholders, there has always been this potential desire to meet Nielsen in their competitors,” he said. . “At the same time, Nielsen's advantage was pretty clear.”
Peter Olsen, who recently retired 20 years later as the top advertising sales executive at A&E Networks, said that everyone is interested in recovering a single calculation from Nielsen or elsewhere.
“To be honest, these ratings are kind of repulsive in a way,” Olsen said. “Is it 100% accurate? I don't think anyone has felt that way. But we need an agreed third-party industry currency that we can just trade.”
