A year of rapid voting results from the liberals, which have governed Canada for nearly a decade, was bad enough. But then there came something almost unthinkable. It is the party's long-standing election fortress, a special election defeat in downtown Toronto.
Last year's defeat, many analysts believe, sparked a series of events that led to Justin Trudeau's resignation as prime minister and the federal election held on Monday.
Toronto voters were crucial to keeping Trudeau and the Liberals in power throughout the three elections. Therefore, the loss of the Toronto area, held by prominent liberals to conservatives, was a surprising blow to the general election, and coming to the general election was a hassle.
With all 343 seats in the House of Representatives currently being filled in the general election, the leisurely defined 56 seats in the Toronto region will determine who will pilot Canada through a trade battle with the US that can handle a devastating economic blow.
Conservatives had invaded the Toronto area of around 7 million people before President Trump overturned the election landscape by imposing tariffs on Canada.
The two main candidates to become the country's next leader are Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Party Pierre Poillièble.
These voters can go in any direction
Although the two Toronto seats were not fertile ground for conservatives, despite special election outcomes, voters in 32 districts of the rapidly growing communities surrounding the city are not particularly attached to the major parties and can get it.
“I wouldn't ideologically say they're overwhelmingly conservative,” said David Coletto, head of voting company Abacus Data. “But that's the core of the more left-centric or left-wing activists we see in downtown urban areas – it doesn't exist.”
In the past, many voters outside of Toronto said that while they helped the Liberals win the federal election, they would vote for the Conservative candidate for the provincial vote in Ontario.
Emphasizing the region's importance to overall outcomes, Carney is expected to spend much of the final weekend of the campaign in the Greater Toronto area.
It's important to appeal to immigrant voters
Many ethnic communities, including many recent immigrants, dominate some of the communities surrounding Toronto, from the city's northwest and Italians to the Chinese and other Asian communities in the northeast.
Although immigrants cannot vote until they acquire citizenship, all major political parties have long been focused on community courtship.
The federal task force on intelligence reports and security threats for elections has said that India, China, Pakistan and Iran are likely targeting these communities in election-related disinformation campaigns.
This week he said he discovered China was trying to hostile Chinese-speaking Canadians against conservative candidates in the Toronto region who criticize Hong Kong's democracy limits.
Dennis Piron, a political scientist at York University in Toronto, said some leaders of these ethnic groups could have significant political influences.
Cost of living and housing prices are concerns
Cost of living is the biggest concern for voters in communities outside of Toronto, adding that many residents live in these residents because they cannot afford to buy a home in the city or nearby suburbs.
Home prices in Toronto have risen 44% since 2020.
Until the beginning of this year, it worked in Poirierre's favor. Polyable regularly denounced Trudeau of inflation and rising home prices.
And many voters were simply tired of the Liberal Party after a decade of power and the sense that the country was headed directly, Professor Piron said.
The parties are committed to supporting financially tied Canadians by providing tax credits to some home buyers.
Trump's tariffs, new leader brings a reversal
Colette said his polls show liberals who scored 15% points in Toronto and 8% points in the wider Toronto region.
Liberals have gained strength in recent weeks, but the Conservatives and some small parties have lost the ground. And his talk of Trump's economic attack on Canada and annexing his country was a key factor.
Polls consistently show that Carney, a former central banker with experience dealing with past financial crises, believes he can do a better job in dealing with Trump than Polyeve.
US tariffs, including vehicles and auto parts, can have a disproportionate impact on many auto parts manufacturers and the Greater Toronto area, home to the vehicle assembly plants of General Motors and Stellantis, owners of Chrysler.
The tariffs Trump applied to his neighbors could play a key role in determining who will capture this deep well of Canadian voters, analysts said.
“You have to win everything,” Colette said, in order to win the national elections instead of doing well in Greater Toronto. “That's not possible in the country and is different from Canada.”
