President Trump has made clear his intention to crush the governing global economic order. And in 100 days he made remarkable progress in achieving that goal.
Trump has sparked a trade war, abolished the treaty and suggested that Washington might not defend Europe. He is also dismantling the government infrastructure that provided know-how and experience.
The change was profound. But the world is still stirring. A two-year midterm election could erode Republican majority in Congress. And it is constitutionally mandatory that Trump's rule ends in four years. Can the next president come and revert what the Trump administration did?
Cardinal Michael Cherney, an intimate aide to Pope Francis, said of the Catholic Church:
The same can be said about global geopolitics. But even in this early stage, historians and political scientists agree that in a few important numbers it may be difficult to reverse the change that Trump has created.
Like the erosion of trust in the US, this is a resource that has been built for generations.
“We've seen a lot of experience in the world,” said Ian Goldin, professor of globalization and development at Oxford University. No matter who next occupy the White House, the conditions that promoted the movement to “make America great again” — the growing inequality and economic insecurity — remain. He said there could be “another Trump of the future.”
As a result, allies are working to attack trade partnerships and build security partnerships that exclude the United States. The European Union and South American countries have recently created one of the world's largest trading zones.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently proposed to build a new transport network to facilitate access to global markets outside the US. Canada is also negotiating to join Europe's military accumulation to reduce its dependence on the US, while the UK and the European Union are working to finalize the defence agreement.
“The world moves,” Goldin said. Supply chains will be relocated, new partnerships will strike, and other places where foreign students, researchers and technical talent will be transferred. “The United States will not recover its economic position quickly,” he said.
“And now it's not just the US that's so different,” he added. Trump is promoting dictatorial leaders around the world and has abandoned the rule-based system even more.
Second, Trump's neglect on international organizations will only intensify China's influence, the main target of his attempts to use economic pressure.
“We've seen a lot of effort into the US China Relations,” said Orville Shell, director of the Asian Association of New York.
China's top leader, XI is exploiting Trump's protectionist turn and chaotic policy reversals, seeking to better position Beijing as advocate for free trade and a new leader in the global trading system.
XI's argument resonates particularly among many emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and Africa. Jonathan Ching, a fellow at the Brookings Institute's China Center and a former Chinese analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, said China is “stable and stable and equal photos compared to the US.”
Africa is a typical example. Trump has thwarted the US international development institutions, bringing food and health care to the world's poorest people. The State Department's reorganization plan proposes eliminating almost all diplomatic missions across the continent.
In comparison, China has already invested deeply in Africa as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, and has the driving force to gain more control over the continent's key minerals. “It creates a vacuum that allows China to integrate its position and integrate control over those mining rights,” Czin said.
Trump's hostility towards allies could undermine government efforts in recent years to maintain advanced technology from the hands of China. These close relationships were extremely important in persuading the Netherlands and Japan to halt the export of advanced semiconductor equipment to China.
Antony Hopkins, a history professor at Cambridge University, added that Trump has forgotten the important role China has played as an international investor and buyer of US debt. If China's access to the US large consumer market is severely reduced, “You're looking for the possibility of undermining China's ability to invest in the US Treasury Department, and you're shooting yourself with the foot.”
Another region caught between the US and China is Southeast Asia. However, as Trump threatened and then suspended until early July, the potentially catastrophic tariffs in export-oriented economic economies such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia gave China the opportunity to strengthen relations.
Finally, the innards of federal government research and data collection capabilities risk undermining America's scientific excellence and competitiveness. According to the National Center for Science and Technology Statistics, the federal government funds approximately 40% of long-term basic research that has technical and scientific breakthroughs in the country.
The administration has cut billions of grants to universities, scientists and researchers, undermining work on topics such as environmental hazards, disease management, climate and clean energy programs, computer processing, agriculture, defense and artificial intelligence. We have significantly reduced funding for cybersecurity work to protect power grids, pipelines and communications. Thousands of veterans and promising experts have been fired.
Institutions are worried about brain drain as American and foreign researchers are turning grants, work and academic freedom elsewhere.
It is also not easy to quickly reconfigure the network of people, support, information and logistics know-how included in disbanded or empty agencies.
“This is a revolution dedicated to destroying institutions as well as policies,” says Shell of the Asian Association. Even if Democrats regain power, it is not clear whether there is a structure to revive or whether it must be rebuilt in a difficult way.
Characteristic events, such as the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, may serve as endpoints for the era. However, the stress of the system is so extreme, it is not always clear in real time whether or not snapback is possible.
David Eckblado, a history professor at Tufts University, said he thought the “Nixon Shock” represented such a break. In 1971, President Richard M. Nixon ended the system of fixed exchange rates and cut the value of the US dollar from gold.
Author William Grader called it the “precise date of America's singular domination” of the world economy. Chaos enveloped the global market, and American allies were worried that the president's unilateral decision would undermine the postwar cooperative system. Still, a larger economic order is maintained.
“The game has changed, but it wasn't a revolution,” Ekblado said. Negotiations for the open market continued, the American alliance remained intact, and a group of 10 negotiated a new arrangement. Internationally respected for the rule of law, the United States was still universally viewed as a leader in the free world.
The issue with the US is how deep the system is now, Ekbladh said. These trends of deep frustration with the global economy have long been bubbled up, with many people voting for Trump for his promise to promote the system in turn. “Do Americans want to erase this?”
