Oil prices are falling. Economists are reducing forecasts for global economic growth. Oil giants report lower profits.
However, on Saturday, eight countries belonging to the oil cartel known as OPEC Plus said they would add around 411,000 barrels of oil per day in June. The move follows a similar step by the group at its April meeting to increase oil production, followed by a major change in policies that ripple over the broader energy industry, increase profits for oil companies and force cuts.
In a statement, the group said the market was “sound” and that oil stocks remained low.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC Plus, has informed them that it is reluctant to hold back millions of barrels of oil a day, especially if members of other groups like Kazakhstan and Iraq do not observe cities of agreed production.
“The view from Saudi Arabia in particular is that if the rest of the group are not showing sufficient commitment to doing their part, they don't want to bear the heaviest burden any more,” said Richard Bronze, director of geopolitics at London research firm Energy Aspects.
Demand for oil has not been significantly weakened. According to the International Energy Agency in Paris, oil consumption rose by 1.2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2025. However, analysts and elsewhere have cut demand forecasts in anticipation of disruptions from global trade tensions that have already denounced prices.
Prices for Brent crude, an international benchmark, have fallen nearly 20% since April 3, when Saudi Arabia and other producers signaled that they would increase production.
Prices for West Texas, the US benchmark, fell below $60 a barrel this week. This is a threshold that many producers are no longer able to make a profit, and analysts say prices could drop even further. Under these pressures, higher-cost producers, like US shale drillers, where production is increasing while OPEC is curtailing production, could be forced to cut.
“Unless OPEC Plus can or can't reduce production at any time to support prices, the burden of reinforcing them will be on other high-cost producers,” an analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights wrote.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been seen as the leading decision-makers of oil producers these days, but they may tend to strengthen President Trump's ambitions that are expected to make an immediate visit to Saudi Arabia and other Middle Eastern countries rather than supporting his predecessor, Joseph R. Biden Jr.
This price drop represents “one of the Trump administration's “most important economic bright spots.” This is what Helima Croft, global product manager at investment bank RBC Capital Markets, wrote in a recent note to clients. Trump has pledged to reduce energy costs, including consumer gas prices.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates may want some concessions in defense or artificial intelligence transactions that both countries have strong ambitions, analysts say. Already, the Trump administration has reinstated talks on a nuclear partnership with Saudi Arabia.
Typically, OPEC Plus is in a hurry to cut down supplies to strengthen the market. Such calculations have clearly changed between eight OPECs and small groups of members, including Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. Instead, they unlocked an earlier agreement to curb production by around 2.2 million barrels per day.
Recently, this small group has met to make a deal, leaving the rest of the OPEC Plus in the back seat. Saudi Arabia, which appears to be running the process, has achieved the biggest increase.
“It's really true that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are willing to cut further production to support prices,” said Bhushan Bahree, executive director of S&P Global.
So far, the answer is no.
The United Arab Emirates, along with Kazakhstan and Iraq, is one of several producers and is interested in sourcing production to accommodate additional produce from oil and gas investments by international companies.
According to the International Energy Agency, Kazakhstan produced approximately 400,000 barrels a day from the OPEC and ceiling in March. During the same period, Iraq exceeded its ceilings by 440,000 barrels a day, with the United Arab Emirates exceeding 350,000.
Kazakhstan appears to be reluctant to curb investors such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil. Chevron and Exxon Mobil recently spent hundreds of billions of dollars increasing production to one million barrels a day at the country's Tengis oil field.
“We're not engaged in discussions about OPEC or OPEC and Target,” analysts said Friday in a revenue call, Chevron's chairman and chief executive officer Mike Worth. Wahth added that Tengis is an important source of income for the Kazakh government and has not been historically “cut off.”
“We will follow the national interest and strictly observe our international obligations,” the Kazakhstan Energy Ministry said in an email.
